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'Cold peace': Tony Abbott, Paul Keating at odds over approach to China
By David Crowe
Australia faces the prospect of a lasting "cold peace" with China that will be marked by bullying and belligerence, former prime minister Tony Abbott has warned amid an escalating domestic debate on how to respond to the rising superpower.
Mr Abbott urged the Australian government to work harder on ties with allies including Japan and the "democratic superpower" of India as the best way to ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific while China remains a one-party communist state.
The highly critical analysis, made in a speech to the India Foundation in New Delhi, contrasts with a warning from former prime minister Paul Keating on Monday against "pious belchings" from those attacking China when Australia's long-term interest lay in working more closely with a vital partner.
While Prime Minister Scott Morrison dismissed concerns about the state of the relationship with China, the conflicting views signal an escalating debate over Australia's response to a violent crackdown on protests in Hong Kong and human rights abuses against Uighurs in the Chinese province of Xinjiang.
Labor foreign affairs spokeswoman Penny Wong also expressed concern about the rising violence in Hong Kong and did not endorse Mr Keating's remarks.
Mr Abbott argued China had been "carefully cultivated" by all governments and "assiduously fostered" by all Australian prime ministers over three decades but it was time to be "very cautious" about the engagement.
"The often-glossed-over reality is that it's hard for Australia to be a meaningful strategic partner to a country that thinks it can bully its neighbours on the basis of confected territorial claims that it refuses to submit to arbitration and tries to resolve unilaterally in its favour," Mr Abbott said.
"Especially if China dumps 'one-country, two-systems' for Hong Kong and becomes more belligerent with Taiwan, but even if it just vigorously prosecutes its territorial claims against countries like India and Japan, it’s hard to see relations with China rising much above the level of a 'cold peace' any time soon."
Mr Abbott argued for strong trade with China to ensure it has food and resource security but warn against closer ties in other areas.
"We should be very cautious about the kind of technical engagement that leaves us relatively weaker and China relatively stronger," he says.
Mr Keating intensified the China debate on Monday morning by blasting the Morrison government and the media for playing on fears of a threat rather than dealing with the "subtleties" of foreign policy.
"The media has been up to its ears in it," Mr Keating told a conference organised by The Australian.
"The Sydney Morning Herald has two anti-China stories in today's paper. It's the usual 'shock and awe' indignation, all fundamentally fired by alarm at the scale and speed of China's rise," he said.
This was a reference to two news reports on human rights abuses against the Uighur people and claims Chinese officials had offered bribes to politicians in the Solomon Islands.
Mr Keating blamed "the phobias of a group of national security agencies" for running Australian foreign policy in a way that damaged the national interest.
"Big states are rude and nasty, but that does not mean we can afford not to deal with them - whether it be the United States or China," he said.
"It is the national interest and its long run trajectory which should guide our hand and not the nominally pious belchings of 'do-gooder' journalists who themselves live on leaks of agencies unfit to divine a national pathway – organisations which lack comprehension as to magnitude or moment or the subtleties and demands of a dynamic international landscape.
"Australia still has choices, but it cannot ignore or go on downplaying the importance and import of the largest economic shift in world history, with all its attendant strategic implications."
Mr Keating made no reference to Xinjiang or Hong Kong in his speech, which reprised his criticism of national security chiefs as "nutters" in May.
The remarks set off a free-ranging debate over how to deal with China, as Labor increased its attacks on the way Mr Morrison was handling the relationship.
Beijing has retreated from cooperation with Australia on some fronts, including a decision it made in August to suspend work with the Australian Human Rights Commission under an agreement with the Australian government.
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said Mr Keating was wrong in his attacks on the security chiefs.
"I think he is certainly making an unfair assessment about the professionalism of our national security agencies, who only have one concern at the forefront of their mind – that is, keeping Australians safe," he said.
Foreign Minister Marise Payne said the Australian government was very concerned about the increasing levels of violence in Hong Kong and emphasised support for the "one country, two system" approach and the protection of basic rights.
Labor's Senator Wong distanced the party from Mr Keating's remarks when asked about his criticism of security agencies.
"I have worked as a minister and as a shadow minister and have engaged with security agencies. I respect the work they do for Australia and I respect their advice. We have always acted consistently with that advice," Senator Wong said.
Labor deputy leader and defence spokesman Richard Marles suggested he wanted a tougher Australian approach towards China's military expansion in the South China Sea through the construction of runways and naval facilities.