Ipsos poll: Labor keeps election-winning lead over Coalition as preferred PM contest narrows

Labor has kept its lead over the Coalition in a tightening race for the May 18 election, with a new poll showing it is ahead by 52 to 48 per cent in two-party terms despite losing some of its support.

The exclusive Ipsos poll for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age finds the Coalition has gained ground during the election campaign to boost its support from the result of 53 to 47 per cent one month ago.

But Prime Minister Scott Morrison is under significant pressure on his leadership and performance ratings, with voters marking him down over the past month and turning towards Opposition Leader Bill Shorten.

While 45 per cent of voters name Mr Morrison their preferred prime minister compared to 40 per cent for Mr Shorten, the gap between the two leaders is the closest it has ever been.

The five-point gap between the two leaders is also closer than seen under former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, who had a lead of 20 points on the same measure one year ago.

One month ago only 35 per cent of voters considered Mr Shorten their preferred prime minister, compared to 46 per cent for Mr Morrison.

The percentage of voters who disapproved of Mr Morrison’s performance rose from 39 to 44 per cent over the past month, while the number approving his performance fell from 48 to 47 per cent.

Mr Shorten gained a boost on the same measures, with his approval rating rising from 36 to 40 per cent and his disapproval rating holding steady.

The survey of 1207 respondents was conducted from May 1 to 4, in the days leading up to the Labor campaign launch in Brisbane on Sunday, and has a margin of error of 2.8 per cent.

The tightening in the gap between the two major parties is within the margin of error but in line with other opinion polls in recent days, including Essential and Newspoll surveys putting Labor in front by 51 to 49 per cent.

The three biggest changes in the Ipsos survey, all of them outside the margin of error, were the increase in Mr Morrison’s disapproval rating, the increase in Mr Shorten’s approval rating and the increase in Mr Shorten’s standing as preferred prime minister.

In a contrast of two campaigning styles, the government has emphasised Mr Morrison’s leadership during the election campaign while Labor has regularly put Mr Shorten alongside shadow cabinet colleagues to project a united team.

While the Labor election campaign launch on Sunday was dominated by Mr Shorten’s speech, it also included a speech by his wife, Chloe, the Labor deputy leader, Tanya Plibersek, and the Labor leader in the Senate, Penny Wong.

Mr Shorten has consistently lagged the Coalition leaders on personal ratings since the removal of Tony Abbott as prime minister four years ago and remains behind Mr Morrison despite the closer result.

The latest result in two-party terms suggests a nationwide swing to Labor of about 2 per cent since the last election, enough to deliver a significant majority for a Shorten government.

The Coalition is hoping to fend off that national swing in individual electorates with strong local campaigns including spending on roads, sporting facilities and security programs such as closed-circuit television systems.

The two-party result of 52 to 48 per cent is based on preference flows at the last election.

When Ipsos asked voters how they would allocate their preferences at this election, the outcome was the same in two-party terms, 52 to 48 per cent.

Ipsos found Labor had a primary vote of 33 per cent, down from 34 per cent one month ago and down from 35 per cent at the last election. The result is unusually low compared to other published opinion polls.

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten at the party's campaign launch in Brisbane on Sunday.Credit: Dominic Lorrimer

The primary vote support for the Greens rose from 13 to 14 per cent over the past month, Ipsos found. The polling firm has consistently recorded higher primary votes for the Greens compared to other published polls and the party’s 10 per cent primary vote at the last election.

The Coalition’s primary vote fell from 37 to 36 per cent over the past month.

In a sign of the difficulty in predicting the coming election result, the new survey includes Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party for the first time and shows it has a primary vote of 3 per cent.

Scott Morrison on the campaign trail on the NSW Central Coast on Sunday.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has a primary vote of 5 per cent, unchanged from the April survey.

Ipsos treats votes for One Nation and the United Australia Party in the same way as votes for other minor parties at the 2016 election, which means 53 per cent of the preferences are allocated to the Coalition and 47 per cent to Labor.