ASEAN 'framework' on South China Sea tiptoes around the real issue

Bangkok: Foreign ministers of the Association of South-East Asian Nations linked arms on stage after adopting a "negotiating framework for a code of conduct" in the South China Sea, hailing a breakthrough in territorial disputes over the world's tensest set of waterways.

The moment on Sunday was portrayed as particularly special as it was on the 50th anniversary of the founding of the grouping of 10 nations with a combined population of almost 700 million and an economy of $US2.4 trillion ($3 trillion).

Foreign ministers from Southeast Asia and their dialogue partners link arms during the gala dinner of ASEAN foreign ministers' meeting in the Philippines on Sunday.Credit: AP

But hang on, haven't we heard this before?

Fifteen years ago ASEAN foreign ministers signed an even more strongly worded document committing the countries to begin negotiations with Beijing over China's claim to almost all of the South China Sea, through which passes one third of global shipping, including much of Australia's.

Pag-asa, part of the disputed group of islands in the South China Sea off the coast of western Philippines.Credit: AP

Since then China has bluffed, threatened and cajoled other claimant nations - the Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei - as it has built artificial islands and deployed military weapons and aircraft on them.

The headlines coming out of Manila, where ASEAN is hosting its annual series of meetings, was that the ministers overcame internal squabbling to sign the "framework" document and issue a communique that called for militarisation to be avoided in the South China Sea, and noting concern about island-building.

But diplomats say the documents were carefully worded to avoid angering China.

The framework only commits China and ASEAN to begin "consultations" – not even negotiations – on a code of conduct.

From left, Laos' Foreign Minister Saleumxay Kommasith, Japan's Foreign Minister Taro Kono, Indonesia's Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi and EU Foreign Policy Chief Federica Mogherini. Credit: AP

"This is an important outcome of our joint effort," Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said after meeting his ASEAN counterparts.

But ASEAN has again shown its inability to make progress on a robust code of conduct for the disputed waters that is legally binding on China and the ASEAN members, analysts say.

US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson arrives for his bilateral meeting with China on the sidelines of the Southeast Asian Nations meeting.Credit: AP

"It's clear that China's pressure on individual ASEAN governments has paid off," said Bill Hayton, an expert on the South China Sea and associate fellow with the Asian Programme at Chatham House in London.

Prominent Philippine academic Richard Heydarian said "overall it's a slam dunk diplomatic victory for China".

ASEAN celebrates 50 years since foundation.Credit: AP

Vietnam, the most vocal critic of China in ASEAN, argued strongly in Manila that any code of conduct should be legally binding, otherwise it would be meaningless.

In July Vietnam shut down drilling for oil and gas 400 kilometres off its coast after China threatened to attack its bases in disputed waters.

But in ASEAN, where traditionally decisions can only be reached by consensus, Cambodia and Laos remain loyal allies of China.

The Philippines – the recipient of billions of dollars of investment and aid from China - has played down the verdict of a UN-backed tribunal last year that found China's sweeping claim to the sea had no legal basis.

Manila had initiated the case under former president Benigno Aquino.

Analysts believe China will continue to grow its influence in ASEAN at a time of uncertainty over the Trump administration's security priorities and whether it will try to keep China's aggressive behaviour in the South China Sea in check.

Before the ASEAN meetings, Paul Dibb, professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University, wrote in the East Asia Forum that there has not been such a period of profound strategic anxiety in the region since the Vietnam War.

He wrote that if ASEAN and a 27-member ASEAN Regional Forum, which the grouping was hosting on Monday, are to remain relevant they need to "come up with concrete ideas for conflict resolution and the lessening of tensions and not believe that if they simply indulge in endless talk the risk of armed conflict will automatically disappear."