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Australian federal election 2016: What we know and don't know about the results
By Fergus Hunter and Josephine Tovey
- Live coverage on day two: cliffhanger result for Coalition, Labor
- Federal election 2016: News, analysis and video
- Election day: how it unfolded
- Election on a knife's edge as voters abandon Turnbull
- The winners and losers of the election
The morning after election day, there remains significant uncertainty about the final results. Despite a disappointing performance, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull said he was confident the Coalition could form a majority government but was unable to claim victory based on the very tight results.
The overall results and outcome of the election are yet to be finalised and may not be until well after Tuesday as the AEC sorts through absentee votes, but there are some results in.
What we know
Dumped: Several prominent government figures have lost their seats, including dumped minister Jamie Briggs, Assistant Minister Wyatt Roy, key Turnbull backer Peter Hendy and conservative stalwart Andrew Nikolic.
Senate: The Senate is set to be even more difficult for the government than the last, a humiliating result for a double dissolution election that was meant to sort that problem out. The government may have 30 seats, needing to secure nine more votes from elsewhere to pass legislation.
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and his wife Lucy at the Liberal Party election night function at the Sofitel in Sydney on Saturday 2 July 2016. Credit: Andrew Meares
Hanson: Pauline Hanson's political career has been revived, with the candidate herself securing a Senate spot and possibly a second one for her running mate in Queensland and perhaps another in NSW.
Xenophon: As predicted, Nick Xenophon has performed strongly. His party will probably have three senators from SA and has taken the lower house seat of Mayo from Mr Briggs.
Hinch: Derryn Hinch, outspoken broadcaster and founder of the anti-paedophile Justice Party, will enter the Senate. He is set to use parliamentary privilege – legal protection of MPs' freedom of speech in the chamber – in new and interesting ways.
Greens: In an election defined by the rejection of the two major parties, the third force in Australian politics has failed to win extra seats. The Greens will lose one senator (Robert Simms in SA) and while they made some ground in Victoria their national primary vote has bounced back only marginally from a disappointing 2013 result of just under 9 per cent of the national vote.
Bill Shorten with his family and niece at Labor's election night function.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen
Goodbye: Various characters from the former Senate crossbench will not return. Prepare to say goodbye to Motoring Enthusiast Ricky Muir, former DLP senator John Madigan, Palmer acolyte Dio Wang and former colleague Glenn Lazarus.
ABCC: The government's two industrial relations bills – the triggers for the double dissolution election – look doomed. Even a joint sitting of the House and Senate will probably fail to deliver the Coalition the numbers it needs.
Malcolm Turnbull supporters listen to Bill Shorten give his speech on the screen at the Liberal Party election night function in Sydney.Credit: Wolter Peeters
What we don't know
Government: It remains unclear if Australia will have a hung Parliament or if the Coalition will squeak by with a very narrow majority. If it is a hung Parliament, it is not clear yet which party will be in a better position to negotiate crossbench support to form minority government.
Seats: As absentee and mobile votes are sorted and results are finalised (with little to be known until Tuesday), the results of roughly a dozen lower house seats remain in doubt. These include Chisholm (ALP), Cowan (LP), Dunkley (LP), Forde (LNP), Gilmore (LP) and Hindmarsh (LP).
Senate: The exact makeup of the Senate crossbench is still to take shape. Libertarian senator David Leyonhjelm could be returned and the Christian Democratic Party – Fred Nile's party – could also take a spot.
Leaders: The implications are unknown for both Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten's leadership. Conservative voices are already attacking the Prime Minister for the result and there are rumblings about the Opposition Leader even though Labor has exceeded expectations and taken at least 12 seats. Before the election, a gain of 10 seats was said to be the benchmark for Mr Shorten.
Plebiscite: The Coalition's plebiscite on same-sex marriage is up in the air. They may not be able to secure the numbers to legislate it and Labor and the Greens have been tight-lipped about how they will approach it.