‘Seemingly endless fire season’ predicted for Victoria this winter

Victorians have been warned to brace for winter bushfires, after a warm and dry autumn parched high growth across large parts of the state.

Much of Victoria remains in drought.Credit: Joe Armao

The warnings come as the Bureau of Meteorology predicts warmer than average days and nights across most of the country throughout winter, as south-west Victoria suffers prolonged drought.

Andrew King, associate professor in climate science at the University of Melbourne, noted that “warmer than normal” was “defined against a normal that was in the past”.

“The climate is changing, and the world is warming,” King said. “It’s actually quite unusual that you see a seasonal outlook [now] where there’s an expectation of colder than normal conditions.”

Glen Clark and his wife, Masumi Ueda, have run a cross-country skiing and snowshoeing business at Hotham since 2017. In that time, Clark said, they’d had a handful of bumper snow years. This winter is not forecast to be one of them.

Glen Clark and Masumi Ueda snowshoeing at Hotham.Credit: Karl Gray

Clark said as small operators like him battled to stay afloat, the preliminary approval last week of Woodside’s 45-year oil and gas expansion plans in Western Australia was particularly disheartening.

“We’re completely at the whim of nature and increasingly vulnerable to the trends due to climate change,” he said.

“I would use the word dire. I mean, last year, I put in a hell of a lot of effort to barely cover my costs. And when you’re in the snow business, you’ve really only got three months at best in the year to make a living.”

Climate scientist David Karoly said there had been long-term declines in average snow cover and depth, and the length of the snow season, over the past 30 years.

Glen Clark and Masumi Ueda snowshoeing at Hotham.Credit: Glen Clark

“To get the big snow dumps ... that build the snow base and allow it to survive rainfall … is associated with cold temperatures that flow from the Antarctic region. And unfortunately this season, and for many of the past few winters, there’s been much above average temperatures.”

Abnormally warm and dry conditions have been repeated in South Australia, with communities in the state’s southern coastal areas, and significant portions of western, south-western and south-eastern Victoria, warned to prepare for unseasonable bushfire risks.

Winter follows an autumn that was book-ended by a cyclone in the Brisbane region and floods in the Mid North Coast region of New South Wales, while inland areas suffered record-breaking drought because of the position of the Southern Annular Mode.

Bureau of Meteorology climatologist Caitlin Minney said it was unclear when the drought would break.

All the while, the continent was ringed by a marine heatwave that killed coral in both Queensland and Western Australia and millions of fish in salmon farms in Tasmania.

In South Australia, a bloom of Karenia mikimotoi algae has blanketed thousands of square kilometres of the ocean with discoloured water and foam for weeks, killing fish, sharks, rays, seahorses and other gilled species.

The SA government said experts believed the marine heatwave – 2.5 degrees warmer than usual – combined with calm conditions, light wind and small swells had led to the bloom off the coast of the Fleurieu Peninsula, Kangaroo Island and the southern coast of Yorke Peninsula.

King said the link between climate change and heatwaves, both on land and in the ocean, was clear. It was more difficult to attribute specific rainfall events to global warming, though a warmer atmosphere could hold more moisture.

Closer to home, Country Fire Authority Acting Chief Officer Garry Cook said bushfires remained a real risk despite the onset of winter.

Algal bloom at Waitpinga, causing a mass production of sea foam.Credit: EPA South Australia

“The lack of rainfall and dry vegetation across many parts of the state is a great concern for firefighters this time of the year, and we’re asking people to remain vigilant and not become complacent just because we’re not in summer any more,” he said.

“While cooler days are arriving, the landscape remains dry enough to allow fires to start and spread quickly if a burn-off gets out of control, especially when coupled with strong winds.”

Cropping and grassland areas would be grazed out or mostly bare, according to the Australian and New Zealand council for fire and emergency services, but forested areas would be at increased risk of fires.

Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino said the ongoing drought across parts of Victoria and SA was causing “a seemingly endless 2025 fire season”.

“Tasmania is also likely to see organic soils smouldering throughout winter due to the state’s ongoing deep soil dryness,” he said.

“These burning organic soils, which are a hangover from summer fires, are difficult to extinguish. They may persist long enough to start new fires when warmer and drier weather starts to occur later in the year.”

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