How Donald Trump just made Chris Bowen’s difficult job harder

In the long shadow of Donald Trump’s thumping election victory, world leaders gather in Azerbaijan for the annual United Nations climate talks on Monday for negotiations that are expected to be even more fraught than usual due to the US poll result.

At the very heart of the talks will be Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen, who along with his Egyptian counterpart, Yasmine Fouad, will lead what is expected to be the most complicated stream of negotiations at the talks over climate finance.

Tough talks lie ahead for Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen.Credit: Michael Quelch

It will be their job to convince the developed world to find a way to provide between $US100 billion ($151 billion) and $US1 trillion ($1.51 trillion) to the developing world over the coming years to help them decarbonise their economies and adapt to climate change.

If rich nations are unable to agree to an acceptable amount of finance and a credible method of delivering it, developing nations are less likely to commit to deep emission cuts. The UN estimates that current emission reduction commitments put the world on track to warm by a catastrophic 3.1 degrees by 2100, with new commitments due to be delivered.

The task was always going to be difficult, but Trump’s re-election has complicated it further. Though Biden administration negotiators will be present in Azerbaijan, the world will operate on the understanding the incoming Trump White House is likely to abandon the process.

This means the world will have to extract more money from few donors and do so without the diplomatic might of US negotiators, who have been a driving force at climate talks before and since the past Trump administration.

Bowen says the global community is determined to continue to fight climate change even without US engagement.

“The fundamentals of climate change don’t change because of presidential election results,” he told this masthead.

The dangers of climate change remained clear, just as action on climate change made basic economic sense, particularly for nations such as Australia with a wealth of renewable energy opportunities, he said.

“So I don’t think we are going to see other nations just shrugging their shoulders and walking away,” Bowen said.

Egyptian Environment Minister Yasmine Fouad will join Bowen for some of the most difficult negotiations.Credit: Getty Images

Further, while Trump’s election in 2016 shocked the world, this time there has been planning and preparation, said Bowen.

Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said Trump’s victory would make Bowen’s job harder.

“I think inevitably the level of finance that we will get in the future will suffer as a result of Trump’s election,” Li said.

He said finance negotiators must secure an agreement not only to increase the amount of climate finance made available but also to address the contentious issue of which nations contribute to the pool. Since global agreements on climate finance were secured in 1992, some countries – such as China – have become richer, and pressure is growing on them to join the donor nations.

Li Shuo, of the China Climate Hub, says Donald Trump’s win makes Bowen’s job harder.Credit: Nick O'Malley

In the absence of a powerful US presence in global climate diplomacy, Li said he believed both China and the European Union would step forward to take up a greater role. Australia, which has close ties with Europe and with climate-vulnerable nations such as those in the Pacific and a thawing relationship with China, was in a good position to facilitate such talks, he said.

“That will be [Bowen’s] job. It’s going to be a careful balancing act. It is at least a three-party dance that Australia will need to facilitate,” Li said.

Alexandra Scott, a London-based climate diplomacy strategist, said though Trump’s victory had complicated Bowen’s job, it would be useful experience and exposure for Australia as it bids to co-host the COP (climate summit) talks with its Pacific neighbours in 2026.

“It is a really tough job, the positions that different countries have put on the table at the moment over the finance goal are very wide apart,” she said.

“But it is the kind of job that the COP presidency needs to play. So it’s a good audition, and it’s good training for picking up a COP31 presidency. I think it’s admirable to see that Australia is willing to take on that kind of challenge.”

COP hosts are selected by groupings of nations within the UN system, and Australia and Turkey both still have their hats in the ring. Many observers believe Australia will be named host, though Bowen would not say if he believed any announcement would be made in Azerbaijan over the coming days.

The talks come as the European Union’s climate service, Copernicus, confirms this year is likely to be the hottest in history and the first in which average temperatures were at 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial period. The 10 hottest years in history have occurred in the past 10 years, contributing to intensifying climate-related natural disasters.

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