Shogun v The Bear: Who will dominate this year’s Emmy Awards?

When the Emmys hand out the statuettes on September 16, it will be one of the more unpredictable ceremonies in years. With no Succession dominating the drama and acting categories (it won six awards in this year’s strike-delayed 2023 Emmys, making it a total of 19 wins over its four seasons), a power vacuum has opened up.

Does that mean it’s The Morning Show’s time to shine or will Shogun, with its 25 nominations, put its competition to the sword? It’s just as unpredictable in the comedy category: will The Bear repeat its six wins for season one, or will the trophy go to an actual comedy (you know, those things that make you laugh)?

Here is an incomplete predictions list that also serves as a TV catch-up before the 76th Emmy Awards.

Tadanobu Asano (middle) as Kashigi Yabushige in outstanding drama favourite Shogun.Credit: Katie Yu / FX

OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES

3 Body Problem; Fallout; Mr. & Mrs. Smith; Slow Horses; The Crown; The Gilded Age; The Morning Show

It’s said that nature abhors a vacuum, so with Succession out of the picture, which show will fill the critical and pop culture void that the Roy family occupied? The Crown’s final season was a wild mess that couldn’t even be saved by the ghost of Princess Diana, while season three of The Morning Show, despite being stronger than the disaster that was season two, leant more to high-end soap than solid drama (see also The Gilded Age). Newbies Fallout, Mr. & Mrs. Smith and 3 Body Problem were all critical hits, but possibly too early in their runs to snatch a trophy. That leaves top-shelf British spy thriller Slow Horses, which has finally broken through with its third season, and Shogun, the reboot of the 1980 miniseries based on James Clavell’s bestselling 1975 book. There’s a lot of love for Shogun, which has backed up its critical acclaim with monster numbers for Disney+, racking up 9 million streaming views globally over its first six days of release (outside the US, meanwhile, it even beat The Kardashians on numbers). Numbers aside, Shogun is astonishing TV that rewards close attention with its complicated characters, attention to detail and predilection for killing off major characters. WINNER: Shogun

Ebon Moss-Bachrach, from left, Ayo Edebiri and Jeremy Allen White in The Bear.Credit: AP

OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES

Abbott Elementary; The Bear; Curb Your Enthusiasm; Hacks; Palm Royale; Reservation Dogs; What We Do in the Shadows; Only Murders in the Building

The Bear may be the overwhelming favourite – and it’s difficult to see how it will be beaten, but again, I ask, is it a comedy – with season two building in terms of storytelling, character and pure pop culture saturation (“Have you seen Fishes?” etc). That aside, its closest competition is Only Murders in the Building, which delivered a strong and star-packed season three, while Curb Your Enthusiasm surely deserves some love for a sardonic final season that handed the perfect response to the backlash against Seinfeld’s final episode (and, really, don’t we all want to see Larry David give an acceptance speech). Hacks, Abbott Elementary and Palm Royale, unfortunately, will probably get lost in the shuffle, while indigenous teen comedy Reservation Dogs and vampire caper What We Do in the Shadows, which both ended this year, will bow out empty-handed. WINNER: The Bear

Richard Gadd created and starred in Baby Reindeer.

OUTSTANDING LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES

Baby Reindeer; Fargo; Lessons in Chemistry; Ripley; True Detective: Night Country

Make way for Baby Reindeer. Scottish comedian Richard Gadd’s account of being stalked by a woman he met in a pub had everyone (and their lawyers) talking when it was released in April. Unless voters are scared off by some of the legal wrangling surrounding the series – should it have been tagged as a “true story” – it’s hard to see how it will be beaten. Gadd and his co-star Jessica Gunning, who played Martha, have also been nominated in the outstanding actor and best supporting actress categories for a limited series. Special mention goes to Ripley, which was a deliciously fresh take on Patricia Highsmith’s stolen identity thriller. WINNER: Baby Reindeer

Hiroyuki Sanada as Yoshii Toranaga in Shogun.Credit: Kurt Iswarienko / FX

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Idris Elba, Hijack; Donald Glover, Mr. & Mrs. Smith; Walton Goggins, Fallout; Gary Oldman, Slow Horses; Hiroyuki Sanada, Shogun; Dominic West, The Crown

All hail Hiroyuki Sanada winning for Shogun. As Lord Toranaga, the regent at the centre of Shogun’s action, the Japanese actor let his silence do the talking. He balanced charisma and ruthlessness with a seasoned hand and kept you guessing until the very end. The dark horse is Gary Oldman for Slow Horses because the Emmys love a grumpy Brit. WINNER: Hiroyuki Sanada

Anna Sawai as the translator Mariko in Shogun.Credit: Katie Yu/FX

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show; Carrie Coon, The Gilded Age; Maya Erskine, Mr. & Mrs. Smith; Anna Sawai, Shogun; Imelda Staunton, The Crown; Reese Witherspoon, The Morning Show.

OK, so this is very much a case of who should win (Anna Sawai for Shogun) versus who will win (probably Jennifer Aniston or Reece Witherspoon for The Morning Show). Sawai is exquisite as the interpreter Mariko, with her quiet performance the perfect counterbalance to Aniston and Witherspoon’s blustering antics in The Morning Show. Hopefully, Shogun’s momentum will carry Sawai through. WINNER: Anna Sawai

Larry David in the final episode of Curb Your Enthusiasm, No Lesson Learned.Credit: HBO

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Matt Berry, What We Do in the Shadows; Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm; Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building; Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building; Jeremy Allen White, The Bear; D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, Reservation Dogs

Returning champion Jeremy Allen White has momentum on his side, but the divided response to season three of The Bear, which premiered a couple of months ago, may hurt his chances. That leaves the door open for comedy’s three big hitters: Larry David, Steve Martin and Martin Short to sneak through. WINNER: Larry David (fingers crossed)

Ayo Edebiri stars as Sydney Adamu in The Bear.Credit: AP

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary; Ayo Edebiri, The Bear; Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building; Maya Rudolph, Loot; Jean Smart, Hacks; Kristen Wiig, Palm Royale

This is a super juicy category. We have returning 2023 champion Quinta Brunson up against two-time champ Jean Smart (2021-22), with Ayo Edebiri, who won best supporting actress in comedy in 2023 but has now been elevated to the best actress category. Of course, they could all split the votes and knock each other out, paving the way for Selena Gomez, who more than holds her own against a couple of comedy legends in Only Murders in the Building. WINNER: Ayo Edebiri

The Emmy’s will be available to stream on BINGE and watch on FOXTEL again this year.

The 76th Emmy Awards stream live on Monday, September 16, from 10am on Binge and Foxtel.

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