Another big US streamer launches on Monday. Here’s what it means for rivals

When streaming launched a decade ago, it was sold as a powerful disruptor to the mainstream: an anything-you-want, when-you-want-it television platform that would leave traditional TV, and its program schedules, quaint reruns and live sport, in the dust.

Flash-forward a decade and streaming platforms have “expanded” into linear channels, which now host vast libraries of content and have pushed deeply into the realm of live sport. Far from disrupting the mainstream, streamers have become part of it.

Life is but a stream … Credit: Paul Rovere

It’s a complex transaction, clouded by the fact some classic shows now slip into the streaming cracks never to be seen again, you can’t share passwords with your kids unless they live under the same roof, and sometimes, when you’re swimming in a sea of thousands of hours of content, you can’t find anything to watch.

Australia’s streaming landscape – already populated by Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV+, Binge, Disney+, Netflix, Paramount+ and Stan, and that’s before we even get to AMC+, Acorn, BritBox, Brollie, Tubi and others – is about to expand by one: the Warner Bros Discovery-owned, HBO-powered Max.

The big question is: will Max land with a splash, or is Australia about to play the biggest game of There Were Six in the Bed (And the Little One Said)? While none of the key streamers is likely to fall out of streaming’s metaphorical bed any time soon, the arrival of Max is likely to trigger a “churn” of loyalties.

Least vulnerable? Netflix, which seems to have a rusted-on subscriber base regardless of the ebb and flow of an “originals” library of varying quality. Most vulnerable? Binge, which was home to the HBO library until Max’s launch, and now loses hit shows including Succession, Game of Thrones, The Last of Us, And Just Like That and The White Lotus.

The White Lotus … the most valuable card in the streaming poker game?Credit: HBO

However, Binge subscribers will get a brief reprieve on The White Lotus, which will be available on both platforms for the last two episodes of its current third season. But a month later, The White Lotus will move permanently to Max, along with many other much-loved HBO and Warner Bros titles.

When you break open the numbers, the market shift is startling: almost 70 per cent of Australians use at least one paid streaming service now, according to research by the Australian Communications and Media Authority.

In part, that is driven by the fact younger viewers are more engaged with streaming than traditional TV, but it is also driven by technology: 80 per cent of homes now have app-equipped smart TVs.

But there are some interesting trends in the fine print. The use of TVs has risen, to 58 per cent, and the use of mobile phones has increased, to 59 per cent. The losers? Tablets – bye-bye, iPad – which have shrunk their TV viewing share to 24 per cent, and laptops, which have slipped to 31 per cent.

And despite the heavily marketed notion that streaming TV is somehow different from traditional TV, in truth it drives audiences to the same kind of content: high-quality original scripted series, culture-shaking (and conversation-dominating) reality-TV programs and “characters”, and live events, particularly sport.

On the first of those, streaming’s reign seems unchallenged. There are still kernels of brilliance emerging in the traditional TV market, but the cream of streaming’s cake – everything from Hacks and Boy Swallows Universe to The Crown and The Diplomat – is scripted.

Conversation-leading reality TV, like MAFS … the missing piece of the streaming puzzle.Credit: Nine

In the unscripted space, traditional TV still seems in an unchallengeable lead. On Disney+, The Kardashians is at best an awkward fit. And on free-to-air (or cable) TV, red-hot franchises such as The Real Housewives, Below Deck and Married at First Sight are not yielding turf any time soon.

There is also a compelling trend towards streaming linear channels – so-called free, ad-supported TV “FAST” channels – that suggests not everyone in the streaming space is content to make up their mind.

Those channels – more than 1500 in the USA and more than 400 in Australia – now proliferate on a number of streaming platforms, including 9Now, 7Plus, 10Plus and the hardware-powered Samsung TV Plus. They are ultra-niche but they are expected to account for $US12 billion ($19 billion) in global revenue by 2027.

24-hour Judge Judy? Yes, say FAST television viewers.Credit:

All of that said, streaming has still not quite conquered live TV, largely because live TV is appointment TV, and appointment TV – for mathematical reasons, if for nothing else – requires a schedule. Watching big sport on streaming is beginning to seem natural, but watching an Australian Idol or Married at First Sight finale? We’re not quite there.

In the end, television content is driven by audience appetite, and audience appetites have never changed: heroes, villains, love, passion, betrayal and revenge.

It was the recipe for TV when Tony Morphett’s masterpiece melodrama Certain Women aired on the ABC in 1973, and it remains the recipe that drives everything from Dynasty to Home and Away and Married at First Sight.

It’s also why live sports such as tennis come with their own heroes and villains, and why The White Lotus has suddenly become the most valuable card in the streaming business’s very real game of audience poker.

And, like most great television dramas, the only certain thing is that the next episode is coming. All you have to do is stay tuned. Or change channels.

How do you stream your TV? How often do you change streaming services? Tell us in the comments below.

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