Rewind twelve months and in the lead-up to last year’s Academy Awards there was one film that was preparing to win Everything, to be Everywhere All At Once.
A24’s masterfully mind-bending tale of a Chinese-American family travelling through alternate universes was near unbeatable, taking home seven Oscars, including best picture, director, original screenplay, lead actress, supporting actress, supporting actor and editing.
The commercially successful Barbie has not resonated as much with Oscar voters as Oppenheimer.Credit: Getty Images
This time around, it’s all about Robert J. Oppenheimer, the American physicist who built the atom bomb. With 13 nominations, Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer is this year’s film to beat, followed by Yorgos Lanthimos’s macabre nightmare Poor Things with 11 and Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon with 10. Then, of course, there is Barbie, the other half of #Barbenheimer.
Together, the films were credited with saving cinema, and yet only one film looks set to be rewarded for all its hard work. With the Oscars just over a week away, let’s examine the state of the race. Who’s the favourite? Who’s already been written off? And who could upset?
Bombs away! Oppenheimer is the shortest best picture favourite in years
In a repeat of last year’s sweep by Everything Everywhere All At Once, Oppenheimer appears to be a given for best picture.
Nolan’s three-hour epic has been unbeaten in all major awards, taking out Critics’ Choice, the Golden Globe for best drama, the BAFTA, the DGA for outstanding directing, the PGA Award for best theatrical motion picture, and the SAG Award for outstanding ensemble.
The PGA Award is especially significant given the guild shares significant member overlap with Academy voters.
Meanwhile, it’s a case of rinse and repeat for best director and best supporting actor. Nolan and Robert Downey Jr are hot favourites to win their respective categories.
One to watch: Paul Giamatti vs Cillian Murphy
The only true challenge Oppenheimer faces is in the Best Actor category, with Cillian Murphy and Paul Giamatti (nominated for The Holdovers) locked in a push-pull battle for much of the award season.
Both men won Globes in drama and musical/comedy categories, respectively, followed by Giamatti’s win at Critics Choice and Murphy picking up the BAFTA.
However, this week, Murphy picked up the SAG Award for best actor, and the SAG winner often lines up with whom the Academy opts for, as was the case last year with Brendan Fraser.
Other categories you should still care about
Oppenheimer’s inevitable dominance doesn’t mean there are no categories left to keep an eye on.
This year, it’s all about best actress, with the winner almost certainly to be either Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) or Emma Stone (Poor Things). As with the best actor categories, Gladstone and Stone have been trading blows.
Lily Gladstone (left) with director Martin Scorsese on set of Killers of the Flower Moon. Gladstone is favourite to take out best actress, but faces stiff competition from Emma Stone.Credit: Apple
Each won their respective drama and comedy Golden Globes, then Stone won the Critics’ Choice and BAFTA Awards, and Gladstone swooped the SAG, leaving the category too close to call.
Elsewhere, bookies have American Fiction as favourite to take out best adapted screenplay and Justine Triet’s gripping French legal drama Anatomy of Fall as original screenplay.
Barbie was controversially moved from the original category into adapted, despite the fact there is no real story-based source for a Barbie movie. Fans of the film are hoping it can pick up a surprise win here, which brings us to our next category.
Which parts will the internet obsess over?
As it stands, it could be a long, quiet night for Margot Robbie, Greta Gerwig and fans of their Barbie movie. Early hype for Barbie significantly cooled during awards season, and it has been largely shut out of the major categories.
Ryan Gosling and America Ferrera are nominated for best supporting actor and actress, but neither are really in the hunt. The film’s best chance of a trophy comes in best production design and best original song. The latter category is almost a lock with either Billie Eilish’s What Was I Made For or Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt’s I’m Just Ken tipped to win. On the subject of Ken, Gosling is going to perform the track during the ceremony, which will no doubt send the internet into a Ken tailspin.
As for other meme-able moments to keep an eye on? Jimmy Kimmel returns as host, and while he tends to play it safe, he will surely have some fun with the #Barbenheimer crowd. But I’m most looking forward to Nicolas Cage returning to the Oscars stage as a presenter. If there’s one thing this awards ceremony needs, it’s more Big Nic Energy.
Find more of the author’s work here. Email him at thomas.mitchell@smh.com.au or follow him on Instagram at @thomasalexandermitchell and on Twitter @_thmitchell.
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