This was published 9 months ago
Spoiler alert: The Oscar winners predicted (and it’s not over for Barbie yet)
It’s not over ’til the little gold gentleman sings, but picking the winners isn’t as tough as it seems.
Does Barbie still have a shot at taking home a trophy from the 96th Academy Awards? We think she does.
Would you be disappointed if we told you the Oscars were already done and dusted? While it might be mildly annoying – hello, spoilers? – it is worth noting the key categories this year have frontrunners who are running a long way in front. Plus, who doesn’t want to sleep in on a Monday morning?
That said, award season comes with a few surprise twists and turns. Barbie star America Ferrera turned a supporting role in the year’s biggest film into a cultural touchstone. And Leonardo DiCaprio, despite turning in Killers of the Flower Moon, was somehow nudged out of the running for best actor.
More awards for us? Sure! Oppenheimer is expected to sweep the Oscars.Credit: AP Photo/Chris Pizzello
Hollywood’s awards season falls between November and March. The first half is a suite of journalist and expert-voted awards, such as the Gotham Awards, the New York Film Critics Circle awards, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association awards, the Golden Globes, and the Critics’ Choice Movie awards.
Then the season swings into the guild-voted awards, such as the Directors, Producers, Screen Actors and Writers Guild awards, and the AACTA International and BAFTA awards. If you’re looking to juggle a few crystal balls, this is where you would look, because the guilds’ voting memberships more closely mirror the individual chapters of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, whose 10,500 members vote for the Oscars. So, who will win on Monday? Strap in and brace yourself for spoilers.
Cillian Murphy plays J. Robert Oppenheimer in Oppenheimer.Credit: Universal Studios
MOTION PICTURE
The nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest.
Who will win? Oppenheimer
Why? Because in the open field of awards season, sometimes you just can’t argue with momentum. Despite the buzz, it was not the early favourite. Past Lives won the Gotham Award, and Killers of the Flower Moon snagged the awards from the New York Film Critics and the National Board of Review. But once awards season shifted to the West Coast, Oppenheimer sprang into the lead and has not looked back. It took the Golden Globe for best drama film, the Critics’ Choice award, the BAFTA and the Producer’s Guild award. And that last one is the critical one: in the last decade, the PGA best picture and Oscars’ best picture have matched seven out of 10 times, meaning the PGA predicts the Oscar winner 70 per cent of the time.
Emily Blunt (left) with director Christopher Nolan (middle) and Cillian Murphy on the set of Oppenheimer.
DIRECTOR
The nominees: Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall).
Who will win? Christopher Nolan
Why? A case, perhaps, that is less one of individual brilliance and more that it’s almost impossible to pull the best film and best director awards apart. Common sense tells you one cannot come without the other, and so Oppenheimer’s majestic run on the home straight of the awards season is pulling its master artisan, Christopher Nolan, along with it. The best director and best film match 75 per cent of the time at the Oscars, but bear in mind: best director is voted by the director chapter members of the Academy, while best picture is open to all. Still, this is Nolan’s year.
Cillian Murphy is a sure thing for best actor at the Oscars.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
The nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction).
Who will win? Cillian Murphy
Why? Would it surprise you if I told you Humphrey Bogart did not win the best actor Oscar for Casablanca? The film won best picture in 1944, and director Michael Curtiz took the director award, but Bogart lost to Paul Lukas, who had starred in Watch on the Rhine. Remember him? Nope, neither do we. In 1999, Edward Norton (American History X) and Tom Hanks (Saving Private Ryan) were favoured to win, but Roberto Benigni won for Life is Beautiful, and in 2002, Daniel Day-Lewis (Gangs of New York) and Jack Nicholson (About Schmidt) were frontrunners, until Adrien Brody stole the show for The Pianist. This will not be one of those years. Oppenheimer owns the moment, and Murphy’s luminous performance will win.
Lily Gladstone with Robert De Niro (middle) and Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
The nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Emma Stone (Poor Things).
Who will win? Lily Gladstone (but Emma Stone is still in with a chance)
Why? For much of the awards season, this has been a two-horse race. Gladstone won the Gotham award, the New York Critics, the Board of Review and the drama actress Golden Globe. Stone won the Los Angeles Critics, a Golden Globe (in the comedy actress category), the Critics’ Choice and the BAFTA. Things took a twist, though, when Gladstone won the Screen Actors Guild award. The second half of awards season – which focuses on the creative “guilds” – has a little more predictive oomph, with the SAG winner confirming the Oscars frontrunner.
Robert Downey Jr as Lewis Strauss in Oppenheimer.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
The nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things).
Who will win? Robert Downey Jr
Why? In a perfect world, this would have gone to Gosling, whose blond coiffure and chiselled magnificence showed the world that he was Kenough. But even Ken’s perfection can’t stand up to Downey Jr’s extraordinary performance in Oppenheimer. He only appears in a third of the film, but he turns that third into something greater than the sum of its parts with a genuinely stunning performance. If he and Murphy were in the same category, you’d feel guilty for ignoring the lead actor. But as impressive as this field is, Downey Jr has roared through awards season, laying claim to everything in sight: the Golden Globe, the BAFTA and the all-important SAG.
Da’Vine Joy Randolph (left), Paul Giamatti and Dominic Sessa in The Holdovers.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), America Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers).
Who will win? Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Why? For an Oscars where so much is certain – Oppenheimer, Nolan, Murphy and Gladstone brook almost no debate – it’s almost a relief to find a category with something resembling an open field. That’s not to imply this is anyone’s category, because Blunt, Ferrera and Foster seem to be the ones nudging ahead. Except one of the nominees has a little more nudge than the others: Randolph has already won the Golden Globe, the BAFTA, the Critics’ Choice and the SAG, which turns this open field into a one-horse race as the field turns into the final straight.
Anatomy of a Fall is favourite to win best screenplay.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The nominees: Anatomy of a Fall (Justine Triet and Arthur Harari), The Holdovers (David Hemingson), Maestro (Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer), May December (Samy Burch), Past Lives (Celine Song).
Who will win? Anatomy of a Fall
Why? Because sometimes it’s written in the wind. Non-English films historically do not do well in this category. In the last few decades there are just two that have won: Talk to Her, which won the best director and best original screenplay in 2003 (one of those rare years director and film were not awarded like a double-patty cheeseburger), and Parasite in 2020, which blew the Oscars wide open, winning original screenplay, production design, editing, international feature film, director and best picture. But, as they say, c’est la vie. Anatomy of a Fall scooped the Gotham, the Globes and BAFTA, and is roaring towards an impressive showing on Oscar night.
Ryan Gosling and Margot Robbie with director Greta Gerwig on the set of Barbie.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The nominees: American Fiction (Cord Jefferson), Barbie (Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig), Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan), Poor Things (Tony McNamara), The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer).
Who will win? Cord Jefferson, Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig, or Tony McNamara
Why? Finally, an open field that’s an actual open field. The category should get the Oscar for best (and maybe only?) open field at this year’s Oscars. So, what’s going on here? Jefferson won the BAFTA and Independent Spirit screenplay awards, Barbie won the Critic’s Choice, and McNamara – playing to the hometown advantage – won the AACTA. The hard reality of American cultural imperialism is that Jefferson will likely snag it, but we’ll add this to the fine print: for a transformational tale, it would be nice if Baumbach and Gerwig won. And because he’s just too good to be overlooked, we will throw our vote behind McNamara.
Yep, it looks like Oppenheimer will also scoop the best original score award.
ORIGINAL SCORE
The nominees: American Fiction (Laura Karpman), Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (John Williams), Killers of the Flower Moon (Robbie Robertson), Oppenheimer (Ludwig Göransson), Poor Things (Jerskin Fendrix).
Who will win? Ludwig Göransson.
Why? Setting aside the utter sacrilege of holding any award for a music score and not simply handing it to John Williams, the man who, with Hans Zimmer, has essentially scored the soundtrack to our lives … can we really be gambling Oppenheimer will win yet another award? Yes, and here’s why. Williams: genius, yes, but nobody gave a flying flap about the fourtumpteenth Indiana Jones film. They shoulda recast, James Bond-style, but that’s a debate for another day. The key takeout is that Göransson’s work is brilliant, he’s the man who wrote the haunting soundscape to Jon Favreau and Dave Filoni’s masterpiece The Mandalorian, and, for Oppenheimer, he wrote a score full of exquisite tonal notes that runs the gamut of emotions.
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is our pick for best animated feature.
ANIMATED FEATURE
The nominees: The Boy and the Heron (Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki), Elemental (Peter Sohn and Denise Ream), Nimona (Nick Bruno, Troy Quane, Karen Ryan and Julie Zackary), Robot Dreams (Pablo Berger, Ibon Cormenzana, Ignasi Estapé and Sandra Tapia Díaz), Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Amy Pascal).
Who will win? Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.
Why? There’s no doubt the great strength of superhero stories on the screen is the transition from the printed paper comic book to the flesh and blood heroes that become cultural icons. How else do we explain the magnificence of Christopher Reeve as Superman? Or Lynda Carter’s Wonder Woman? So, how come the animated Spider-Man movies are better than anything Marvel has batted up to live-action? Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse and now Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, aka Make Us Another One of Those!, are sharp as a tack, brilliantly executed and greater than the sum of their animated parts. Tom Holland’s Spider-Man is a charmer, and putting three Spider-Men – Holland, Tobey Maguire and Andrew Garfield – into Spider-Man: No Way Home nearly blew our brains apart, but Jake Johnson’s Spidey is a rock star, and this film will shake this category hard.
The 96th Academy Awards will be aired live from 10am on Channel 7 and 7plus on Monday, March 11, and replayed at 8.30pm.
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