By Simon Jackman
POLITICS
What Trump’s Second Term Means for Australia – The shocking consequences for us and the world
Bruce Wolpe
Allen & Unwin, $26.99
Much analysis of Trump’s return in the Australian public square feels like a mix of tut-tutting or entertainment, depending on the viewpoint. Reactions range from “Look what he’s done now!” to a hint of schadenfreude or genuine sadness about American decline, or even glee at Trump’s defiance of norms. However, seldom do we ask, “What does this mean for Australia?”
But this is precisely the question serious-minded Australians should be asking.
Bruce Wolpe provides a valuable service answering this question in this extensive update of his earlier book Trump’s Australia, in which he tackled the consequences of Trump’s first term for Australia. Wolpe correctly forecast the “shock and awe” of Trump’s return. But more importantly, he traces how populism – a species of democratic politics with a long pedigree in both Australia and the United States – has opened the door to unabashed authoritarianism in Trump’s return. Perhaps the single most important point that Wolpe makes is that democratic backsliding can happen easily and seemingly anywhere, perhaps even in Australia.
He categorises Trump’s impact on Australia into three policy areas: foreign policy, domestic policy, and cultural and political spillovers. This demarcation isn’t always neat, as politics and culture often drive policy settings. Wolpe identifies media — principally the Murdoch press — and money as key vectors by which Trump’s policies or rhetoric influence Australia.
America First unilateralism is not ideal for Australia – we’d always prefer hegemons bind themselves to the “rules-based international order” – but a focus on the Indo-Pacific and China is welcomed. The issue for Australia – as with previous US administrations – is the extent to which American mindset about the Indo-Pacific translates into presence given the clamour for policy attention in Washington. Wolpe’s summary of expert opinion on AUKUS is that it is precisely the kind of arrangement that Trump would welcome, but that Trump could well insist that more AUKUS-related jobs stay in the United States.
Bruce Wolpe correctly forecast the “shock and awe” of Donald Trump’s return. Credit: Bloomberg
Wolpe identifies “drill, baby, drill” and pulling the US out of the Paris accords under the first Trump presidency as key exemplars of a policy spillover. He argues that the Morrison government enjoyed considerable “top cover” on climate and energy policy given Trump policies and their prominence in Australian media.
The election of the Biden administration – and the prominence of Biden’s climate policy in foreign policy – saw the Morrison government crab-walk back to a 2050 net zero target. The drivers of this shift were probably as much the impact on Australian public opinion (the “power of our example” as Biden called it) and the 2022 Australian election drawing closer as much as state-on-state persuasion.
The book’s cover teases Wolpe as “Australia’s leading expert on US politics”. And with good reason. Born and raised in the US, he has worked at the highest levels in both Australian and US politics and held senior executive positions at Fairfax Media.
I was proud to have appointed Wolpe as a senior fellow during my tenure as CEO of the US Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. His equally formidable partner, Lesley Russell, is an expert on public health and contributes an important chapter on America’s COVID response under Trump.
Wolpe identifies key institutions of Australian politics as limiting the influence of Trump-like populism and authoritarianism here. Compulsory voting is listed first in Wolpe’s telling, an assessment I share (I’d also note the moderating influence of preferential voting), alongside Westminster style-government (an executive drawn from and responsible to the legislature), public funding of elections and professional, non-partisan election administration (the Australian Electoral Commission). He also adds the ABC and the less partisan or ideological character of judicial appointments in Australia.
Some of these are more fragile than others. Major Australian political parties have kept themselves “closed shops” with respect to pre-selections, eschewing US-style primary elections. Donald Trump only becomes president because of primaries; a Trump-like character would be consigned to the sidelines of Australian politics, perhaps winning a House or Senate seat or two, a la Palmer or Hanson. Likewise, Australian political parties could choose to amend the Electoral Act to make voter turnout voluntary, or to politicise the AEC, the ABC or judicial appointments.
As Wolpe masterfully shows us, the lesson of Trump is that our democracy is not a “set and forget” proposition, but rather demands constant vigilance.
Simon Jackman is former CEO of the US Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, where he is now an honorary professor.
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