By Josh Gordon and Analysis
To borrow from Oscar Wilde, to lose one minister may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose two looks like carelessness.
Add in the entire board of a statutory authority, and potentially the authority's chief executive, and it starts to look like a full-blown political crisis.
This is the situation Daniel Andrews now confronts. After the resignation of Adem Somyurek last year, the premier has now lost a second minister, Jane Garrett.
Garrett, who was well regarded, resigned on principle, bluntly refusing to support an industrial deal that critics claim would have undermined the work of volunteer firefighters and given the union powers to interfere in CFA management and operational decisions.
The CFA crisis has dented Andrews' leadership.Credit: Penny Stephens
Andrews has now sacked the entire board of the CFA, with the chief executive of the authority that Andrews himself handpicked, Lucinda Nolan, likely to follow.
For a man in this much political strife, Andrews certainly looked confident as he strode briskly towards the waiting media on Friday afternoon, with more than 30 paid and volunteer firefighters assembled behind him in a show of support.
"Enough is enough," he declared. "This bitter dispute has gone on for more than 1000 days. Unless we take decisive action it will go on for 1000 more. That is not leadership, that is not safe."
Andrews is not taking a backward step. Far from it, his strategy – as far as there is one – seems to be to steamroll his way over all that stands in his way.
Jane Garrett resigned on Friday.Credit: Eddie Jim
First, there was a finding from Victoria's Equal Opportunity and Human Rights Commission that the deal breaches the state's anti-discrimination laws by potentially tipping the balance against women returning to the workforce after pregnancy, older workers, parents, carers, non-union members and disabled workers who might rely on part-time work.
These concerns were batted away as irrelevant, with the government claiming the agreement had since been updated with a so-called diversity clause, the practical of which is entirely unclear.
Then Industrial Relations Minister Natalie Hutchins appeared to verbal Fair Work president Iain Ross by claiming he had told her the agreement would improve diversity in the fire services. Ross said nothing of the sort, and clearly made his displeasure known, forcing Hutchins to issue a humiliating retraction just hours later.
Then the CFA board released legal advice – from the Government's own Senior Counsel no less – stating that signing the deal could unlawfully breach anti-discrimination laws. Again, this advice was batted away, with Andrews saying it was up to the Fair Work Commission to decide what was legal and what wasn't.
As if all of this wasn't extraordinary enough, later on Friday the Supreme Court issued an injunction preventing the CFA board from signing any agreement until June 22, ostensibly because the concerns of volunteers had not been properly considered.
Once again Andrews – backed by his freshly appointed Emergency Services Minister James Merlino – steamrolled his way over this trifling matter, sacking the board anyway.
The only entity that has not been steamrolled is the militant union. The message to other unions: go hard, hold your ground, inflict maximum damage and you will prevail.
All of this because Andrews says he is not prepared to risk entering another fire season without an agreement.
Clearly, Andrews' strategy is to attempt to barrel his way through the crisis in the hope it will all be long forgotten by the 2018 state election. He may well emerge from the crisis, but he will do so as diminished leader, with considerably less political skin.