This is the war Trump didn’t want, and his ‘peacemaker’ credentials are falling apart

When Donald Trump cancelled his meeting with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese this week and left the G7 Summit early, it became clear the billionaire businessman’s second presidency was facing a key test.

As the Situation Room debated the critical question of the United States’ direct involvement in the rapidly escalating Israel-Iran conflict, an unlikely candidate for mediation emerged: Russian President Vladimir Putin. Speaking with national content director Chris Paine on The Morning Edition podcast, our international and political editor Peter Hartcher delves into Putin’s “Rasputin-like mystical influence” over Trump, and what it means for foreign policy.

Click the player or watch the video below to listen to the full episode, or read on for an edited extract of the conversation.

Paine: So the big question is, what is America, and specifically, Donald Trump’s role in all of this? As we record this in the middle of the day, Wednesday Australian time, the US has not been involved in any strikes thus far. What is Trump saying? He’s long sworn himself against wars like this. He’s also touted himself as “The Peacemaker”. What kind of test is this for Trump? What will he do?

Hartcher: It’s a huge test for Trump. Until Thursday last week, he was presiding over negotiations with the Iranians to try to get them to cease and desist from their nuclear program, and telling Netanyahu that he did not want an Israeli attack right up until the hour before the attack occurred ... This is a war he didn’t want. And as you say, Chris, he sees himself as a peacemaker. He’s made no secret that he wants to get a Nobel Peace Prize. He promised to end the war between Ukraine and Russia within 24 hours. Four and a bit months later, that’s raging and has escalated. He promised to fix the Gaza war. No dice. And now, while he’s trying to come to a nuclear arrangement with Iran, a new war has broken out there as well. So that’s three strikes and you’re out. So his peacemaker credentials are looking pretty tatty.

Now, what’s he going to do with this war under way? He’s got conflicting political demands in his own constituency, the MAGA, Republican, national security constituencies in the US. He’s got the restrainers and the prioritisers. And that’s a big chunk of the MAGA movement, the MAGA policy, military impulse. Their thinking is the US should just simply keep out of the Middle East altogether, “It used to be important. We used to need the oil. We don’t now, let it go, let it rip. Let the Israelis tear the Iranians to pieces, and the Iranians do what they can.”

Hartcher: Then you’ve got the internationalists and the traditional Republicans who say: “No, this is a critical area of the world. We must protect Israel. We must protect our oil access, and we must do what we can to limit the power of the Iranian regime, but without causing a major world war.”

So these are some of the constraints and the competing interests that he’s trying to mediate between. And he doesn’t know what to do because his whole plan was just “stop any wars”. Beyond that, now that the war is raging, he’s showing increased sympathy and support for Netanyahu and Israel, which is an important constituency for the entire US, but also for a lot of Republicans.

But he’s not sure whether the US should get involved in striking, he’s positioning military assets. He’s putting another aircraft carrier into the region. He’s putting a midair refuelling aircraft into the region. He’s giving the US options to join in the attack on Iran. He’s calling on Iran for unconditional surrender. And yet he’s hoping for a quick end and a limit to the bloodshed. That is not what Netanyahu intends. Who’s going to win? Well, so far, Netanyahu is winning this argument. What does Trump do?

On the other hand, another pressure on him in favour of trying to protect Iran is Russia. So Russia is the traditional sponsor of the Iranian regime, its only important great power supporter. And Vladimir Putin has been vocally condemning the Israeli attack supporting Iran. And on the phone to Trump saying, “You’ve got to stop the fighting. You’ve got to protect Iran and help, can I do anything to help?”

Vladimir Putin’s growing influence over Donald Trump could have interesting implications for foreign policy. The duo is pictured here at the G-20 Summit in Japan in 2019.Credit: AP

Paine: Well, let me ask you more about this, because Trump has been pretty clear about his feelings about Vladimir Putin, but he’s far from a fair and objective referee in all of this, wouldn’t you say?

Hartcher: Oh, yes ... he’s got a dog in the fight and that dog is Iran. And he wants that dog either to be, if it’s in a losing position, left alone, or if it’s in a strong position, he wants it to thrive. It’s the biggest entree point that Russia has into the Middle East at the moment. It did have Syria, but Bashar al-Assad’s now gone, in recent months. So now there’s only Iran. Iran has been important to Russia for many years. Russia has given it air defence systems. It’s given it missiles. In return, the Iranians, during this war that Putin’s having with Ukrainians, Iran has been shipping tens of thousands of drones, which the Russians have been using to attack Ukraine. They put payloads of explosives on them. The Iranians have even built a factory in Russia so that Russia can make its own drones for the war. And in return, we suspect – but don’t have definitive proof – that the Russians have been helping the Iranians with their nuclear development.

Now, we all know that Donald Trump has long had a soft spot for Vladimir Putin. Now Vladimir Putin is saying to him, “Look, you know, you’re siding with the Israelis. But listen, mate, you know, it’s better that this war doesn’t occur at all. You’ve promised to bring peace. And let me, Vladimir Putin, come in and help you as an honest broker in this situation.” And Donald Trump, because of his long relationship and uncanny and bizarre and inexplicable relationship with Putin and the way Putin seems to have a Rasputin-like mystical influence over Trump, Trump has said, “Oh, well, you want to be a peace mediator? I’m open to that idea.” And Trump has said publicly, “Putin is ready to do it, and I’m open to it.” Now, if he brings Putin in to do what he couldn’t, which was to mediate some sort of peace, that would be a first. There’s never been a case where a US president has delegated, or outsourced or subcontracted, to a traditional American enemy, the mediation or negotiation over a critical American national interest, which in this case is the Middle East. And yet, Trump seems to be on the threshold, on the brink of allowing exactly that to happen.

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