This was published 4 years ago
Opinion
Trump goes with his gut, even if the world beyond the US goes belly-up
Peter Hartcher
Political and international editorWhen Donald Trump hired John Bolton in 2018, he said that some people thought his new national security adviser was a "bad cop". He was invoking the idea that they could deploy the good cop-bad cop routine in managing other countries.
Then Trump delivered the punchline: "The trouble is, we've got two bad cops."
Bolton didn't reject the description. His hardline policy views are even more notorious than his exuberant moustache. But by the time he left the White House a year and a half later, he had a firm view of the essential difference between the "two bad cops".
John Bolton on Trump: "He doesn’t think in philosophical terms, or in terms of grand strategy, or in terms of policy as we conventionally understand it."Credit: AP
"I had a world view," Bolton tells me. "And he didn't. He doesn't think in philosophical terms, or in terms of grand strategy, or in terms of policy as we conventionally understand it. That makes him different from all other presidents," says Bolton, who has worked for five now, all Republicans.
"He operates on an ad hoc, gut level, not based on much information, and he changes his position day to day. Domestic political considerations far outweigh the pros and cons of the issues. The best way to understand Donald Trump is that he's an aberration, an anomaly. It almost doesn't matter who replaces him. It'll basically return the US to a variation of the foreign policy people have seen since 1945."
But in the event that he's not replaced at next week's election, what should we expect from a second term of Trump? "He could be even more erratic than he was in his first term," says Bolton, because he would not be constrained by the need to consider re-election. US presidents are limited to two terms under the constitution.
America's allies should be uneasy at the thought. "He genuinely finds it hard to understand why we have allies," Bolton says. "And China was the only thing that mattered."
'China was the only thing that mattered.'
John Bolton, former White House national security adviser
The former US national security adviser and under-secretary of state for arms control and international security says Australia should "count your blessings" that the country wasn't molested by Trump. Many US allies, including Germany, France, Canada and Mexico, were.
"He was within an ace of withdrawing from NATO in 2018," ending the 71-year-old alliance that protects Europe from Russian attack. "I honest to God didn't know what he was going to do.
"The reason Australia didn't get so much more attention is that all Trump cared about across the Pacific was China, China, China. He thought China was benign, except for the trade deficit."
But hold on. History will show that Trump was the president who ended the long phase of US accommodation of the People's Republic and began a new era of confrontation.
Illustration: Dionne GainCredit:
John Bolton gives the US President scant credit. "The existential issue for the US and West, generally, is China. This is classic Trump. For the first three years, he thought Xi Jinping was his friend. He was looking to do the biggest trade deal in the history of the world. And everybody would get rich and everybody would be happy and everybody would love him."
But Xi was not prepared to meet the US demands on critical sticking points such as structural state support for industry. There was a half-deal in a state of stasis.
"Then along comes COVID," says Bolton. "At the beginning, Trump didn't want to pay attention to it because that would mean he had put faith in Xi, and Xi was covering up as much as he could.
"Trump didn't want to hear anything that might interfere with his trade deal or with the economy. But as it became clear how serious COVID was and how much China had covered up, attitudes began to shift against China and it was in his interest to take a harder line and soon we were putting sanctions on China," over a range of issues including the mass persecution of the Muslim Uighur minority.
Until then, Trump had shown zero interest in human rights in China. When Xi gave Trump early word of his plan to lock up the Uighurs by the million, Trump approved, as Bolton records in his book, The Room Where it Happened, published in June.
But now that the pandemic had descended, Trump decided to use China as his out: "He jumped on this line that COVID was not his fault; it was China's fault."
At this point, Bolton raises a very serious possibility under Trump 2.0. The consensus in Washington is that the US will continue its confrontation of China no matter who wins the presidency; Bolton says we shouldn't assume so.
"If Xi calls him after the election and says ‘Congratulations on your victory and we think you're a great guy', Trump's perfectly capable of doing a 180-degree turn. He could reverse his China policy in a heartbeat if he thought the ‘big deal' with China was once again possible." Trade, Bolton says, is what Trump really cares about: "It's about money. It has dollars, he understands that."
Donald Trump, pictured here with Xi Jinping in 2019, is obsessed by China, Bolton says.Credit: AP
If so, this could harm Australia and other US allies who'd stood up to Beijing. If the superpower were to suddenly switch from confrontation to accommodation of China's regime, lesser powers such as Australia, Japan, Vietnam, India and others could find themselves abruptly exposed to Xi's full vengefulness.
How might Australia try to cope with another four years of Trump? "Scott Morrison or his successors need to stay in closer touch," says Bolton. "A lot of foreign leaders are reluctant to call because they think they might waste the President's time.
"No. 1, Donald Trump loves to talk to people. Talk to him. Keep talking to him. Talk to him again and again until you break through" on whatever matter you might be pursuing.
And the same if it's a Joe Biden presidency: "If it's Biden, you'll have to establish a relationship. So my advice is, don't be shy."
What of Trump's accusation that Biden is corrupt, taking illegal payments from Russia and Ukraine and others? Bolton ran the National Security Council in the Trump White House; he had access to the most highly classified intelligence the US possesses.
"I think it's entirely made up by Trump," says Bolton. "Hunter Biden," Joe's son, "as is often the case with the family members of influential politicians, probably exercised incredibly poor judgment. In the debate, Joe Biden said he'd never taken a penny from any foreign source. It'd better be true, and I'm inclined to believe it's true.
"Donald Trump just makes things up. He tries to create the world he wants you to believe in." Fair cop. We're about to discover exactly how many American voters believe in his alternative reality.
Peter Hartcher is international editor.