‘October surprises’ have changed US elections. Will they ruin Kamala Harris’ chances?

When William Safire, a speechwriter for President Richard Nixon and conservative columnist for The New York Times, crafted his eponymous political dictionary, his entry for “October Surprise” reads: “Last-minute disruption before an election; unexpected political stunt, revelation or diplomatic manoeuvre that could affect an election’s outcome.”

The outcome of the US election will have significant implications for Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu.Credit: Photos: AP

The first October surprise in a US presidential election was in 1980. Ronald Reagan, the California governor and Republican nominee, floated the rumour that president Jimmy Carter would do a desperate deal with Iran and get the American hostages – held for nearly 400 days – home in time for the November 4 election to end a humiliating crisis for the country and save his presidency. The public spotlight on such a ploy ensured that nothing would eventuate. Reagan crushed Carter, rendering him a one-term president. Iran punished Carter to the end, releasing the hostages only after Reagan was sworn in as president on January 20.

The October Surprise in 2000 was the revelation that George W. Bush had been arrested some years before for drunk driving. Bush lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College.

In 2016, the Access Hollywood bodice-grabbing tapes were Trump’s October surprise. Many thought that was the end of his campaign. But then Hillary Clinton was ensnared in two October surprises: Russia’s hack of Democratic Party emails and the FBI’s investigation of her use of a private email server during her work as Secretary of State. Her momentum stalled. Trump won in the Electoral College.

Will there be an October surprise next month? And who is more vulnerable to such a scare should one erupt, Trump or Kamala Harris?

There have been so many scandals and constitutional atrocities committed by Donald Trump (twice impeached and criminally indicted on 88 counts in several legal proceedings) that it is hard to conceive of a manic event that could bring him down a month before the election. (Although, as Edwin Edwards, a former governor of Louisiana, once boasted, “The only way I can lose this election is if I’m caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy”.)

Then-president Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan in 2019.Credit: AP

After an exceptionally good run for Harris since she first emerged, all the way through the Democratic convention and the debate with Trump, this election is close to being decided. While Trump is fully competitive, Harris is moving into a position where she could win.

But in the six weeks remaining, events—some easy to postulate, others a complete surprise—could alter the outcome. There could be economic shocks, more assassination attempts, or Iran, Russia, or China using misinformation or disinformation to disrupt the vote. But the more likely October surprise crises are hiding in plain sight and could explode at any moment.

In the Middle East, Israel and Lebanon are on the brink of a major ground war. Months of talks to get an agreement on a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of all the hostages are stalemated. There is authoritative reporting that US officials have concluded there will be no deal until after the end of Biden’s presidency.

A ceasefire in Gaza has been seen as essential to a dialling down of Hezbollah attacks on Israel’s north. But keeping the demons of war at bay has been terribly fraught. Israel assassinated a Hamas leader even as the talks were at a critical phase. Israel killed dozens and injured thousands by detonating pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah forces, followed by airstrikes to kill Hezbollah leaders in Beirut. Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, has promised “just retribution and reckoning” for what Israel did.

Vice President Kamala Harris met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington back in July.Credit: AP

One October surprise may be an outburst of regional war involving Israel, Lebanon and Iran. What if tens of thousands of Hezbollah missiles rain down on Tel Aviv? What is Israel’s response, then? Expand the war to Iran?

In Ukraine, a decision by the United States and NATO allies is pending on whether to provide longer-range missiles to Ukraine that could strike deeper into Russia. Throughout the war, at major decision points such as whether to provide F-16s to Ukraine, there have been concerns that if Ukraine’s forces pushed Putin too far, he would resort to the use of tactical nuclear weapons to stop Ukraine and defend Russia.

A second October surprise is for Ukraine to acquire longer-range missiles and hit Russia. What if Putin then uses a tactical nuclear weapon somewhere in Ukraine? What is Ukraine’s and NATO’s response, then? Sue for peace or wider war?

These October surprises would trigger extreme worldwide tension, jolting global economies, energy markets and supply chains – just as the war on inflation is being won.

Either or both catastrophes would be seen as a foreign policy failure of President Biden, despite “doing everything we can” and, by association, Vice President Harris, in managing the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Harris’ political momentum would halt. Trump will go into overdrive in his warning about all the countries involved being on the brink of World War III.

It is likely that Putin and Netanyahu have calculated that their national and political interests will be much better served with President Trump than President Harris, and in these days before the election, take advantage of these conflicts accordingly.

These nightmare scenarios may just be bad dreams. But in a year of intense upheaval and near tragedy, the shock of an October surprise cannot be ruled out.

Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre. He has served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former prime minister Julia Gillard.