Is this the beginning of the end for Trump?

Donald Trump loved “Liberation Day”. There he was on Wednesday afternoon, launching the biggest global trade war since the 1930s – the one that ultimately fuelled the Great Depression. Trump effectively sent flowers and a card signed “America First” to grace the tombstones of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the World Trade Organisation. Together, they had spawned more than 75 years of global liberalisation of commerce and economic growth. From the Rose Garden, a farewell kiss from the White House.

For Liberation Day, Trump name-checked several tech bros (but, surprisingly, not Elon Musk, who is reported to be nearing a departure from his role) along with automobile, pharmaceutical companies and others. He boasted of the hundreds of billions of dollars in new plants in America that will be spawned by the Trump tariffs. But they will not come online for years. The price increases and inflation from the new tariffs start tomorrow. This means pain now.

A singular president, or is Donald Trump – so soon after his triumph – inviting his own political isolation?Credit: AP/Rebecca Blackwell

This speech was one of the most powerful moments of Trump’s presidency. The entire world was watching. Trump is fulfilling everything he said he would do to protect the homeland and support his base. He executed a trifecta of protectionism, populism and America First nationalism – exactly what he stands for. That is what Trump’s loyalists voted for and wanted to hear in this speech, all to Make America Great Again.

But across America, cracks in Trump’s standing are emerging. At this apex of his power, is Trump on the brink of failing?

Trump’s base is intact, but he is losing voters who put him over the top last November. He won 49.8 per cent of the popular vote. His approval rating this week, as reported by AP and Fox News, has fallen to 42 per cent, while 56 per cent disapprove of how he is doing his job as president.

What if Trump’s vengeful tariffs do trigger a global recession, or even a 21st century Great Depression? In anticipation of what his trade wars will bring on, US stock markets have suffered their worst quarter since 2022. The consumer confidence index is at a 12-year low. Many Americans are pessimistic and expect a recession. Voters want Trump to focus on inflation and prices – not tariffs.

The first voting since November is showing a weakening of Trump’s position. Wisconsin just voted for an open seat on its state Supreme Court, which will decide the future of abortion in the state. Elon Musk contributed $US25 million of the more than $US90 million for the Republican candidate, who suffered a landslide defeat. The Democrat won this judicial election.

In Florida, there was a special election for two open House seats. Trump carried those districts by 30 points last November. The Republicans won, as expected, but their margin was cut in half – a bad sign for Republicans in next year’s House races.

The Democrats, though losing to Trump in Washington, are gaining ground at the grassroots level. House Democrats are holding town hall meetings in Republican electorates and receiving a surge of support from voters. The guerilla tactics are hurting. Republican leaders have told their members not to have in-person town hall events because they will face angry voters fed up with what Trump and Musk, the enforcer of the mandate to slash government spending, are doing.

Trump’s base is also being teased with the chance to support a third term for Trump – if alive, he will be 82 in 2028 – even though the Constitution specifically forbids it.

Even as the world reeled at his tariff declaration, Donald Trump attempted to sell America to rich would-be immigrants with a $US5 million gold card for a fast track to citizenship.Credit: Pool via AP

The Trump tariffs are the biggest tax increases in American history. If the economy slows and goes into recession, if unemployment rises, if prices surge, if interest rates go up again, Trump loses political capital at home.

This is crucial for the tech bros from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia – who have supped with or met Trump. They are all in now. But they are globalists. If Trump’s trade wars tank the US economy, they could turn on Trump in a New York minute.

Trump wants Canada to become the 51st state. Canada is raging against Trump over his tariffs. The era of deep ties with the US, says Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, “is over”. In a rare display of rebellion (for now), four Republican US senators broke ranks on Thursday to vote with the Democrats in a bid to block those tariffs against Canada. And Carney may win his election this month on the back of anti-Trump sentiment.

Trump, meanwhile, still insists the US “has to have” Greenland, which is under the sovereignty of Denmark, another NATO ally. He projects power but he has not succeeded on his foreign policy promises. In the campaign, he said he could end the Russia-Ukraine war “in 24 hours”. It won’t be over in 2400 hours. The war in Gaza rages on, with no Arab buyers for Trump’s “Riviera” vision for the territory.

Australia has not been spared by Trump’s Liberation Day. A century of mateship has been soiled. The free trade agreement with the US has been trashed. It is not good enough for Trump that Australia has a $17.9 billion trade deficit with the US. Trump always wants more. As Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says, the Trump tariffs are “not the act of a friend”. Every nation on Trump’s list feels the same way.

Sentiment among Australians has hardened rapidly against Trump. Resolve Strategic polling for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age has revealed 60 per cent of Australians say Trump’s election victory has been bad for Australia – up from 40 per cent last November. He is failing Down Under, too.

Today, Trump may be revelling in his command. More likely than not, he is post-peak at home. A reckoning is building.

Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre. He has served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former prime minister Julia Gillard.