History shows you’ll need time, money and a bare-knuckled brawler to stop Trump

Washington: If there’s one general rule about Donald Trump, it’s that he rarely goes down without a fight. Underestimate him at your own peril.

Remember June 2015, when the reality TV star descended the golden escalator of Trump Tower in New York to launch his presidential bid?

Donald Trump during his announcement. He is again running for president. Credit: AP

Very few people took him seriously, only to watch him knock out the competition and win the Republicans’ nomination to run as their candidate.

Or what about October 2016, when a damning Access Hollywood video was leaked in which Trump was overheard bragging about sexually assaulting women?

Not only did he end up beating Hillary Clinton a month later, but his defiance in the face of that scandal also set a fresh template that many embattled candidates have followed ever since: deflect; deny; do whatever it takes to win.

Now, Trump is back once again, announcing a bid to run for the White House in 2024 despite the appeals of Republicans who believe he was largely to blame for the party’s weaker-than-expected results at the midterm elections.

Former US president Donald Trump gestures after announcing he is running for the White House for the third time.Credit: AP

In a meandering speech at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, three months after it was raided by the FBI over the alleged mishandling of documents, Trump painted America as a nation in decline: scarred by crime, swamped by illegal immigrants, raging with inflation.

“America’s comeback starts right now,” he told the cheering crowd as he declared his candidacy.

“This is not a task for a politician or a conventional candidate. It’s a task for a great movement that embodies the courage, confidence and the spirit of the American people.”

The announcement itself was no surprise. Ever since Trump lost to Joe Biden, the former president has been laying the groundwork for a comeback by working to elevate proponents of his “stolen election” myth to powerful positions at state and national level.

In fact, Trump was so eager to announce his campaign that he almost did so at a rally in Ohio before the election last week, but agreed to hold off amid concerns that this would galvanise more Democrats to show up at the polls the next day.

Much has changed between then and now. Trump is no longer the undisputed front-runner for 2024, with serious potential competition from Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, whose decisive re-election victory last week cemented his position as a rising star within his party.

He also still faces several legal woes, including a Department of Justice investigation into the alleged mishandling of classified documents, a New York probe into his business affairs, and a series of inquiries relating to the January 6 Capitol attack.

And last week’s election was seen largely as a repudiation of the extremism of Trump’s endorsed candidates, many of whom ended up alienating swing voters in winnable races, from Pennsylvania and Arizona to Nevada and New Hampshire.

But whether that affects his popularity among the party’s base is another thing altogether.

After all, the former president reshaped the Republican Party in his image and still commands the loyalty of a deeply devoted core of die-hard fans, for whom he can do no wrong.

Indeed, as conservative pollster Whit Ayres recently explained, the modern Republican Party is essentially made up of three broad groups.

About 10 per cent could be described as the “Never Trump” faction, comprising people who still consider themselves Republicans but never supported Trump and didn’t vote for him.

Up to 60 per cent could be viewed as the “Maybe Trump” group, who have voted for him previously but are not entirely convinced they want him to run for president in 2024.

And then there’s the remaining 30 per cent, who make up the “Always Trump” faction – the hardcore supporters who would “walk through a wall of flame” for America’s 45th president. At the next election, those supporters could be needed by the party more broadly.

“Criticising Donald Trump among these people is like criticising Jesus in a rural evangelical church,” Ayres said. “I guarantee you, it would change no views.”

For all the talk of “regeneration”, the Republican Party’s resolve will no doubt be tested over the coming months.

According to FiveThirtyEight, the former president leads early polling of Republicans by a substantial margin, registering in the high 40s or low 50s in most national surveys - 20 to 30 points ahead of his biggest rival, DeSantis.

Trump only has to win over the Republican side of the partisan divide to become its presidential nominee and his ability to turn out supporters, fundraise relentlessly, and beat down his opponents remains significant, despite his latest vulnerabilities.

In a fractured, multi-candidate primary he could also edge out in front if party members are unable to coalesce around a single rival, similar to what happened in 2016.

History suggests it could take a lot to defeat Trump: including, time, money and a bare-knuckled brawler. Whether DeSantis or any other candidate has what it takes will be known soon enough.

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