Albanese’s new headache: Australians no longer believe America will protect them

Australians have been watching as Donald Trump shows us who he is. As Trump and J.D. Vance made abundantly clear in Washington on Friday, a new reality is dawning for the United States’ traditional allies. That is translating into how Australians think about the future of our security.

A potentially historic shift is under way in how Australians view our relationship with the US.

Donald Trump and Anthony Albanese.Credit: Nine

New polling by The Australia Institute has found that more Australians view Donald Trump as a greater threat to global peace than Russian President Vladimir Putin or Chinese President Xi Jinping. When given the three choices, 27 per cent of Australians chose Xi or Putin, and 31 per cent saw the US president as the biggest danger.

These figures are extraordinary. More Australians now think the leader of our most important security ally is a bigger threat to peace and security than the leaders of the world’s two most powerful authoritarian states, one of which has invaded another sovereign nation.

The poll, a representative survey of 2000 Australians, asked questions about the US president, security and the US-Australian alliance. Even before Trump and Vance’s ritual humiliation of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office, 49 per cent of Australians said they feel less secure now than they did before Trump’s re-election. Only 17 per cent reported feeling more secure since last November. Across Labor, Coalition, Greens, independent and other voters, “less secure” was the most common response. Only among One Nation voters was “more secure” selected by more people than “less secure” (35 per cent compared with 22 per cent).

That feeling of general insecurity is reflected in how Australians view the foundational promise of our alliance with the US. In a federal election year, this could have big implications.

Recently, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said he was confident the US would defend Australia if we needed it. But just last week, when asked by a journalist about the AUKUS agreement, Trump responded: “What does that mean?”

Australia has committed to give $4.8 billion to the US to enhance its submarine industry’s capacity. Given the deal is of such significance to Australia and the UK, it was unsettling to see it wasn’t on the president’s radar.

Today’s polling makes clear that many Australians do not share the PM’s confidence. Asked if they thought Trump would defend Australia and Australia’s interests were we threatened, half of Australians (48 per cent) indicated they were not at all confident the US would come to our aid.

Australia’s commitment to, and faith in, our alliance with the US has long been understood as a “bipartisan consensus”. But these latest polling results suggest that cracks might be appearing and this shifting dynamic could play a major part in people’s decisions on election day.

On the question of whether Australia would be better served by a closer alliance with the US, 48 per cent of Labor voters said they would prefer a more independent foreign policy, compared to just 30 per cent who prefer a closer alliance. Among Coalition voters, 49 per cent favour a closer alliance, compared to 34 per cent who favour a more independent foreign policy.

These results point to the possibility of real political tensions – some of which already exist within the Australian Labor Party, particularly over the AUKUS pact.

Even within the Coalition, a significant proportion of voters are feeling less secure since Trump’s election, meaning these results suggest that there isn’t much of a constituency for Trumpism in Australia. At a time when some Coalition candidates are facing real electoral contests with independent candidates – especially female independents – the fact that most women in Australia (56 per cent) say they feel less secure since Trump’s election may also come into play.

The Trump administration is trashing the common values that have long been assumed to unite America and its traditional allies, including Australia. Our relationship with the US should be, and historically has been, based on our shared interests: democracy, equality, the rule of law and genuine freedom. Zelensky’s face in the Oval Office reflected the understanding that this may no longer be the case.

Trump is trashing those common values, and the rest of the world – including Australia – is paying attention. The stakes for the US and its allies are incredibly high.

Dr Emma Shortis is director of international and security affairs at The Australia Institute.

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