Fall of the house of Assad gives Syrians a fragile new hope

Vladimir Lenin once said “there are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen”. The Bolshevik revolutionary’s apocryphal words referred to the rapid collapse of tsarist Russia, but they seem especially apposite to today’s Middle East.

Hundreds of Sunni Muslims gather in celebration, marking the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s long and brutal reign in Syria.Credit: Daniel Berehulak

In just 14 months, a chain of events has unravelled some old certainties and created new uncertainties. Now the end of the Assad family’s iron rule in Syria presents the international community with a new reality that offers hope to some, despair to others.

Hamas’ horrific raid on Israel on October 7 last year is a self-inflicted wound that so far has cost more than 50,000 Palestinian, Lebanese and Israeli lives. For that matter, Israel has done itself massive damage internationally with its intransigence and heartless belligerence. But it was its successful degradation of Hezbollah that spurred Syrian rebels to begin their offensive the same day last month as a ceasefire came into effect in the Lebanon conflict.

The lightning offensive led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, a former al-Qaeda commander, ousted the head of a country bled dry by decades of neglect and civil war. Their overthrow of the repugnant Bashar al-Assad at the weekend not only surprised the international community but those watching closely from the sidelines. Of them, only Turkey, a regional aspirant with unruly sectarian problems, came out ahead. Assad’s strongest ally, Iran, will need to recalibrate its quest for regional hegemony while his other major supporter, Russia, distracted and weakened by its war in Ukraine, was exposed as toothless.

The fall of the house of Assad, which has ruled in Damascus for more than half a century, does not necessarily mean a new spirit of democracy will sweep Syria. The nation has been ruined, drained of its lifeblood and faces the daunting task of starting again from scratch.

The victorious rebels too face daunting challenges. They must also heal the bitter divisions in a country ravaged by war and split by fragmentation among ethnic and religious factions. Turkey-backed opposition fighters are battling US-allied Kurdish forces in the north, and the Islamic State group is still active in some remote areas.

For generations, dictatorship kept Syrians at a distance from the decisions that concerned them. Now rebellion has returned the fragile hope of finally taking control of their lives, and it is in everyone’s interest that Syrians are given lasting peace to rebuild their shattered land.

The jihadist past and Islamist nature of the armed rebels who played a decisive role in bringing down the Assad regime are obviously cause for concern. Certainly, huge uncertainty surrounds Jolani, leader of the biggest rebel faction, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham – a listed terrorist organisation in Australia – who is poised to chart the country’s future. He said he embraces pluralism and religious tolerance.

Jolani will need help. The international community must do as much as possible to promote political stability if Syria is to leave its tortured past behind.

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