Starmer’s linking ceasefire to statehood is risky business

Edging closer towards recognising Palestine, Australia has astutely not joined the United Kingdom in linking a two-state solution in the Middle East to a ceasefire and an increase in the flow of humanitarian assistance to Gaza.

However, in a joint statement with 14 countries, Australia on Wednesday demanded a ceasefire, reiterated an “unwavering commitment to the vision of the two-state solution” and condemned Hamas’ attacks while welcoming a series of commitments by the Palestinian Authority which could pave the way to recognition.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer delivers a statement about the situation in Gaza on July 29.Credit: Getty Images

It followed British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s sharp policy shift announcing the UK would recognise a Palestinian state next September at the United Nations unless Israel moved to secure a ceasefire, increase aid and agreed not to annex the occupied West Bank, adding that Hamas must release hostages, sign up to a ceasefire and accept it will have no role in governing Gaza.

Starmer’s caveats are well-intentioned bids to give Israel an incentive to act and are part of a broader European effort to end the almost two-year conflict between Israel and Hamas. The British move is also symbolically significant, given Whitehall played a central role in the creation of the state of Israel in 1917 when it supported a national home for the Jewish people in what was then Palestine.

But using threats against Israel and conflating the two-state solution with a ceasefire risks muddying an already dirty conflict while boosting the aspirations of a terrorist group and further hardening Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s resolve. “Starmer rewards Hamas’ monstrous terrorism and punishes its victims,” Netanyahu immediately posted on social media.

The British change of heart illustrates how quickly sentiment about the war has changed across the world since October 2023, when global sympathy went out to Israel. But it has clearly leached away since, and in recent days footage of children dying from starvation, reports of famine in Gaza and the UN confirming 60,000 Gazans had now been killed in the war have crystallised opposition to the war. Israel maintains starvation has not occurred in Gaza, but Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Starmer and US President Donald Trump have publicly begged to differ.

Through pugnacious intransigence, Israel has allowed war in Gaza to drag on without resolution and handed the higher moral ground, not to Hamas, but rather the people of Palestine. Ironically, in doing so it has given the notion of Palestinian statehood a huge leg up.

The other alternative, the Netanyahu-endorsed proposal by Trump to relocate Palestinians from Gaza and turn the war-ravaged coastal enclave into a luxury waterfront development, is a transactional fantasy that has only garnered international condemnation and raised concerns about the flood of refugees flowing from such a brutal real estate deal.

Britain’s move to use Palestinian statehood as a bargaining chip feels like blackmail, and Australia is correct in holding back from such a blunt instrument. But with feelings running high on Gaza, broader global events will surely force Australia to recalibrate our policy on a two-state solution.

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