Israeli intelligence had ‘deep understanding’ of Hamas threat

Jerusalem: Israel’s top domestic security agency ignored signs Hamas would attack in October 2023 and was fooled into believing the militant group did not want all-out war, the agency reported in its inquiry into one of the country’s most devastating security failures.

The report by the Israeli Security Agency, known by the Hebrew acronym Shin Bet, was published on Tuesday, five days after the military released the result of an investigation saying it had drastically underestimated Hamas’ capabilities and “failed in its mission to protect Israeli civilians”.

While the agency said it failed to warn of the deadly attack, it also implicitly directed blame at the country’s political leadership.

A woman walks with an Israeli flag near the hme of the Kunio family after it was burnt during the October 7, 2023 attack on Kibbutz Nir Oz. Credit: Getty Images

Whereas the army concluded it underestimated Hamas’ capabilities, the Shin Bet said it had a “deep understanding of the threat”. In veiled criticism of the government, it said its attempts to thwart the threat were not implemented.

Nonetheless, it said it failed to identify the Hamas plan. Among other factors for this failure, it cited a mismanagement of available intelligence and “the backdrop” of the government’s policy of containing Hamas and “maintaining quiet” in the occupied Gaza Strip.

Hamas fighters from Gaza stormed into southern Israel on October 7, 2023, killing 1200 people and taking more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli figures.

As the sun sets, Palestinians sit at a large table surrounded by the rubble of destroyed homes and buildings as they gather for iftar, the fast-breaking meal, on the first day of Ramadan in Rafah, southern Gaza Strip, on Saturday.Credit: AP

More than 48,000 people have been killed in Israel’s war on Gaza since then, according to Palestinian health officials, with the small enclave largely destroyed and most of its 2.3 million people displaced, humanitarian agencies say. Around 400 Israeli soldiers have also been killed.

A fragile ceasefire has held in Gaza since January 19.

A published summary of the Shin Bet’s investigation said that if it “had acted differently in the years preceding the [Hamas] attack and on the night of the attack ... the massacre would have been prevented”.

“This is not the standard that we expected from ourselves, and the public from us,” the report said.

Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar has taken responsibility for failing to prevent the attack but has not resigned.

Ronen Bar, chief of Israel’s domestic security agency, says he will carry the burden of the failures.Credit: AP

“As the head of the organisation, I will carry this heavy burden on my shoulders for the rest of my life,” he said.

Both investigations were published as calls grow from within the Israeli opposition and civil society for a national inquiry into the government’s failures on October 7, 2023.

Soon after the start of the war, Israel’s military and its main intelligence agencies admitted they had failed to foresee the lightning attack by thousands of Hamas-led gunmen, leading to the commission of the two reports.

The Israeli military’s findings focused on tactical, battle and intelligence failures before, during and in the days after the attack. The armed forces chief of staff, Lieutenant-General Herzi Halevi, announced his resignation in January, taking responsibility for the army’s failure.

But the political establishment has so far avoided a reckoning despite repeated calls on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to hold a full national inquiry.

In a fiery parliamentary debate on Monday, Netanyahu said an inquiry would be held eventually but it must be “objective ... balanced and not dependent” on predetermined findings.

Some Israeli media outlets said the Shin Bet’s findings had been submitted to Netanyahu’s office, which did not respond to a request for comment.

Palestinian Jori Abu Tueima, 7, injured in an Israeli ground and air offensive on Gaza, sits in an ambulance as the first group of Gaza children arrives in Jordan for medical treatment on Tuesday.Credit: AP

Meanwhile, Economy Minister Nir Barkat said Israel’s defence policy has taken on a black-or-white approach, and the country won’t be willing to compromise security on any of its borders.

“There’s no more grey,” he told Bloomberg TV in an interview. “The strategy that Israel is working upon is ‘be really good with the good guys and bad with the bad guys’.”

To that end, he added: “Our next steps will depend on the attitudes of Palestinians. If they threaten the Jewish State, they will be made to look like Gaza. If they want to join the Abraham Accords, they’ll have the opportunity to resemble Dubai.”

Barkat spoke just days after Israel halted all humanitarian aid and other imports to the war-shattered Gaza Strip as a six-week truce with Hamas expired on Sunday.

The minister didn’t comment on whether Israel would resume fighting, but said US President Donald Trump was “very supportive of Israel’s bold moves and has told it ‘do what you need to do to win the war’. To stop the violence in Gaza and get our hostages back.”

Arab leaders met on Tuesday to discuss a possible solution for rebuilding Gaza after Trump repeatedly demanded that Egypt, Jordan and other countries take in the larger part of the enclave’s population. Middle Eastern countries have strongly rejected that idea and aim to come up with a counter-proposal.

Reuters, AP, Bloomberg

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