Agree to a ceasefire in Gaza and we won’t attack, Iranian officials tell Israel

Dubai/Beirut: Only a ceasefire deal in Gaza stemming from hoped-for talks this week would hold Iran back from direct retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on its soil, three senior Iranian officials said.

Iran has vowed a severe response to Haniyeh’s killing, which took place as he visited Tehran late last month and which it blamed on Israel. Israel has neither confirmed or denied its involvement. The US Navy has deployed warships and a submarine to the Middle East to bolster Israeli defences.

Palestinians displaced by the Israeli air and ground offensive on the Gaza Strip flee from Hamad City.Credit: AP

One of the sources, a senior Iranian security official, said Iran, along with allies such as Hezbollah, would launch a direct attack if the Gaza talks fail, or it perceives Israel is dragging out negotiations. The sources did not say how long Iran would allow for talks to progress before responding.

US President Joe Biden, asked if he expected Iran to skip a retaliatory strike on Israel if a Gaza ceasefire deal was reached, said: “That’s my expectation.”

With an increased risk of a broader Middle East war after the killings of Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, Iran has been involved in intense dialogue with Western countries and the United States in recent days on ways to calibrate retaliation, said the sources, who all spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

In comments published on Tuesday, the US ambassador to Turkey confirmed Washington was asking allies to help convince Iran to de-escalate tensions. Three regional government sources described conversations with Tehran to avoid escalation ahead of the Gaza ceasefire talks, due to begin on Thursday in either Egypt or Qatar.

“We hope our response will be timed and executed in a way that does not harm a potential ceasefire,” Iran’s mission to the UN said on Friday in a statement. Iran’s foreign ministry on Tuesday said calls to exercise restraint “contradict principles of international law.”

“Something could happen as soon as this week by Iran and its proxies... That is a US assessment as well as an Israel assessment,” White House spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Monday.

“If something does happen this week, the timing of it could certainly well have an impact on these talks we want to do on Thursday,” he added.

At the weekend, Hamas cast doubt on whether talks would go ahead. Israel and Hamas have held several rounds of talks in recent months without agreeing a final ceasefire.

In a sign of further resistance to an end to fighting between Israel and Hamas, on Wednesday AEST official from the group said it will not take part in the round of cease-fire talks, and accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of negotiating in bad faith.

“Netanyahu is not interested in reaching an agreement that ends the aggression completely,” Abdul Hadi said, according to the New York Times. “But rather he is deceiving and evading and wants to prolong the war, and even expand it at the regional level.”

In Israel, many observers believe a response is imminent after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran would “harshly punish” Israel for the strike in Tehran.

“We are closely following what happens in Beirut and Tehran, and are working to thwart any (possible) threat, while also preparing a variety of offensive options,” Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said during a visit to an intelligence base in Northern Israel.

Two of the Iranian sources said Iran would support Hezbollah and other allies if they launched their own responses to the killing of Haniyeh and Hezbollah’s top military commander, Fuad Shukr, who died in a strike in Beirut the day before Haniyeh was killed in Tehran

Reuters with Chris Zappone