Netanyahu’s move to seize Gaza won’t save the hostages, and he knows it

Forget any visions of a Trumpian “French Riviera of the Middle East” blooming in Gaza. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is once again mobilising reservists to redouble efforts to achieve his twin aims of destroying Hamas and returning Israeli hostages snatched on October 7, 2023.

This week, Israel approved plans to seize the Gaza Strip, occupy the conflict zone for an unspecified amount of time, expand the buffer zone, and relocate the population to the south while taking over the distribution of humanitarian assistance with the help of US private military contractors.

Palestinians look at a house targeted by an Israeli army strike in Gaza earlier this month.Credit: AP

The planned commencement and expansion of Israeli ground operations in Gaza is likely to prove an early test for the second term Albanese government that, despite its focus on China and the Pacific region, has been reluctantly drawn into addressing the fallout from events in the Middle East. In an increasingly multicultural country, concentrating solely on our region is difficult for the Australian government. The added sectarian complexities inherent in the conflict, however, make dealing with the October 7 attack and Israel’s response an even more complex foreign policy challenge.

To date, more than 50,000 Gazans have died and much of the enclave lies in ruins, and neither of Netanyahu’s aims has yet been realised. This is because of the continuing disconnect between what Netanyahu seeks and what he has tasked his military to achieve.

Military action alone cannot destroy an organisation such as Hamas. And unleashing the types of intense attacks the Israel Defence Forces have carried out in civilian areas in an attempt to achieve the unachievable reduces the chances of gaining the release of the hostages alive.

In addition, given the number of civilian deaths and the imposition of collective punishment on Gazans through blocking humanitarian aid, any short-term tactical military advantage Netanyahu achieves by degrading Hamas will come at the cost of multi-generational enmity towards Israel.

Of course, military action in response to October 7 was justified, as was significantly degrading Hamas’ capabilities to ensure there cannot be a repeat of the attack. Forcing Hamas to the negotiating table to gain the release of hostages is also a condition of achieving Netanyahu’s stated aim. But of the 147 hostages that have been returned alive to date, 139 have come about as a result of negotiations and only eight were rescued by the military.

The fact that military force is not the agency by which hostages will be returned is plain to see. If Netanyahu aims to have hostages returned, negotiation is clearly the way to achieve it.

Yet, Netanyahu’s focus on the tactical present, while paying little attention to the strategic future, has been heightened by this new ground offensive. Israeli government statements regarding the latest move have stated Israel will “capture” the strip, while some of the prime minister’s far-right allies have gone as far as claiming Israel was re-occupying it.

Compare this with what Netanyahu said after a meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in which he agreed to work with the Trump administration to ensure the president’s “bold vision” of a redeveloped Gaza became a reality. This is a vision that also requires the “voluntary removal” of an undisclosed number of Gazans to unnamed countries in the region. A different and better thought out plan for reconstruction, put forward by Egypt on behalf of other Arab states, has been flatly rejected by the prime minister and the US president.

Absent of any realistic post-conflict plan, a renewed Israeli ground offensive risks its troops becoming enmeshed in a forever war – forces occupying Gaza or sections of it without any foreseeable strategic outcome, simply to protect the gains from a series of tactical victories.

Militaries generally have a poor record as occupying forces, particularly when the local population see you as such. And the Israeli public will want to know what the end game is for their children who will be asked to perform this task.

Before the invasion of Iraq, Colin Powell’s advice to then-president George W. Bush was: “If you break it, you own it.” That rule applies even more to Israel and Gaza considering Palestinians don’t have the physical distance that Washington had from Iraq.

All of this makes the apparent lack of interest in, or preparation for, the nature of Gazan society the day after hostilities end of great concern.

As far as Australia is concerned, the government will face these realities confident that its first-term handling of the issue has not cost it politically. For all the heat it caused in terms of antisemitism, protests and media coverage, it was largely absent as an issue come election time.

Regardless of what transpires with this new offensive, in the absence of any real leverage, the Australian government will signal its position through voting in the UN, and continuing to call for a ceasefire and the release of the hostages.

Dr Rodger Shanahan is an author and Middle East analyst.

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