Is the start of a ceasefire the end of a conflict? History says only sometimes

Is the start of a ceasefire the end of a conflict? History says only sometimes. In the Middle East, in particular, permanency is a fluid concept. Within the Gaza ceasefire – which came into force overnight – exist obstacles to a genuine end to the violence. The foundations of peace rest on reconciling seemingly irreconcilable interests, and building a strength from that fragility.

Senior Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya said he saw the deal as a defeat for Israel. Israel, however, can argue it has had success. In the 15 months since Hamas massacred more than 1200 people in southern Israel and took more than 250 people hostage, Israel has killed Hamas’ fighters and leaders, including its head in Gaza. It has inflicted damage on a large section of Hezbollah in Lebanon and weakened Iran’s standing.

But, in doing so, it has also killed more than 46,000 Palestinians, according to Gazan health officials. Most of them were civilians, more than 13,000 were children. Gaza’s infrastructure is destroyed. Almost 2 million people have been displaced. The International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for alleged war crimes.

Still, the first part of the three-phase ceasefire has begun. It is planned to last six weeks. The missiles will stop, death and destruction will pause, hope will seep into the air. Israel will withdraw its forces from populated areas of Gaza. Hamas will begin releasing Israeli hostages.

The first 33 will include women, the elderly and the wounded; three overnight, four on the seventh day and then three every seven days, and the final 14 in the last week of phase one. For each hostage returned, Israel is to release between 30 and 50 Palestinian prisoners.

After 15 months of immense misery, suffering and loss, it cannot be denied this ceasefire is a ray of light that hopefully will prevail where other attempts have not. The questions that arise in trying to establish peace in the region after the ceasefire are another matter. It comes down to this, and then what happens?

First, international aid must start flowing into Gaza at pre-conflict levels. The normalising of life, as much as it can be, also requires some stable form of government. Israel is strident in declaring Hamas should not be involved in the governing of the Gaza Strip – a view the Herald shares.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken summed up the intractability of the situation saying that, as a consequence of the war, “Hamas had been able to recruit almost as many new militants than it had lost, a recipe for an enduring insurgency and perpetual war”.

In a national address 12 hours before the ceasefire was due to start, Netanyahu said his country was treating the ceasefire as temporary and retained the right to continue fighting if necessary. He claimed he had the support of US President-elect Donald Trump, who has told Netanyahu to “keep doing what you have to do”. Hamas will almost certainly be of the same view.

Another ceasefire may be, in the bleakest view, just another false dawn. We hope it is not.

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