Hamas has been beheaded but will the fighting cease?

The assassination by Israeli Defence Forces of Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader viewed as the architect of the October 7 attack that ignited the Middle East, has breathed new life into hopes for ceasefire talks.

Sinwar’s death was perhaps inevitable. The Hamas raid killed about 1200 people. About 250 were hauled back to Gaza as hostages. Sinwar went to the top of Israel’s hit list. The Hamas leader, who assumed its top political office in August, remained elusive, surviving in tunnels dug beneath Gaza, as Israel killed many of his co-fighters until he was hit by a unit of trainee squad commanders who encountered him on Thursday during an operation in southern Gaza.

Many may regard this as a pivotal moment in the year-long war. US President Joe Biden congratulated Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sinwar’s death and called the killing an opportunity to free Israeli hostages and end the war in Gaza. Similarly, Vice President Kamala Harris said justice had been served. “Hamas is decimated and its leadership is eliminated,” she said. “This moment gives us an opportunity to finally end the war in Gaza.” Hostages’ families have called on the Israeli government to use Sinwar’s death to negotiate for their relatives’ release and Palestinians are reportedly voicing hope that it may bring an end to the war.

For his part, Netanyahu said Sinwar’s assassination marked the end of Hamas rule in the Gaza Strip; that it opened the possibility of ending the Iranian-led axis; and that it created new options to free the remaining 101 hostages. But he was in no mood to give ground. “Now it is clear to everyone, in Israel and in the world why we insisted on not ending the war … and why we insisted in the face of all pressures against it to enter Rafah, the fortified stronghold of Hamas where Sinwar and many of the murderers hid,” Netanyahu said. To the people of Israel, however, he cautioned that Israel’s war against Hamas and other Iranian proxies “is not over yet” and that there are “still difficult days ahead”, but in the end, “we will win”.

Sinwar’s death is unlikely to end Hamas’ reign in Gaza. The reality is that Hamas has tens of thousands of fighters, and just as he succeeded rival Ismail Haniyeh, assassinated along with his personal bodyguard in Tehran by an apparent Israeli attack last July, it is likely the terrorist group had a succession plan for Sinwar.

Palestinians living in Gaza have paid a higher price for Hamas’ increasingly failed mission to destroy Israel and they are tired of bearing the burden. Similarly, Sinwar’s death would have lifted Netanyahu’s stocks, but Israelis have to wait a daunting two years before expressing a view in the ballot box.

Some may think Sinwar’s assassination marks the end of the conflict. They are likely to be disappointed. But, with most on both sides wanting a way out, Sinwar’s end is truly a big moment, and it is a reminder that resolution depends on the goodwill of all.

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