Who will be the next pope?

London: In Rome, there is a famous saying: He who enters a conclave as pope, exits as a cardinal.

It’s become a proverb among so-called Vaticanologists, indicating one should never be too sure of oneself. For when it comes to predicting what happens next, nothing can ever be certain.

At the age of 88, Pope Francis – born Jorge Mario Bergoglio – is now the oldest pontiff in over a century and is in increasingly frail health. He has his good days and bad days, those who monitor him closely say, but after almost 12 years in the Catholic Church’s top job, Vatican watchers agree he is closer to the end of his reign than the start.

The cinematic release of Conclave, a Hollywood film adapted from the novel by British author Robert Harris, has once again thrown the spotlight on one of the most arcane, storied and secretive events in human history: the election of a new pope.

Ralph Fiennes as Cardinal Thomas Lawrence in the film Conclave.Credit: AP

Scholars agree the film is fun but rather outrageous. Secret messages, a sex scandal, a crisis of faith and emergent questions about what exactly happened with the previous pope in his final hours keep causing the balance of power to shift among the various hopefuls. But Vatican experts say none of it rings true to the secretive process, and suggest that those who seek a serious dramatic inquiry into the inner workings should look elsewhere.

Later this month Francis will become the first sitting pope to release a memoir, Hope. In it, he reveals he had never considered following the example of his predecessor, Benedict XVI, and abdicating – a “momentous decision” that “broke a taboo that had lasted for six centuries”.

Pope Francis has said he will resign if bad health stops him exercising his duties.Credit: AP

But he did confirm that, upon becoming pontiff, he had signed a statement to the effect that he would resign if bad health made it impossible for him to perform his duties.

“There are days in which he’s walking and days in which he’s in a wheelchair,” says Christopher White, Vatican correspondent for the National Catholic Reporter, a Catholic newspaper based in the United States.

“Recently, we’ve noticed at some events, he seems to be wearing hearing aids. And, you know, I think in general, the winter is a rough time for him.

“But all things considered, everyone that I speak with close to him says he still remains mentally sharp and pretty determined to press onward.”

Late last year, Francis surprised many when he named 21 new cardinals in a power play that will ensure the now 140-member College of Cardinals – whose main job is to elect the next pope – is 80 per cent made up of those of his choosing. Just what it will mean for his successor is unclear.

And in many circles, it is seen as rude to speculate while the Pope is alive.

While various names have been thrown around as candidates, such as Canadian Cardinal Marc Ouellet, Dutch Cardinal Wim Eijk or Hungary’s Cardinal Peter Erdo on the conservative side – alongside compromise figures such as Maltese Cardinal Mario Grech or Italian Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, a peace envoy to Ukraine and Gaza – Francis has been said to favour the Philippines’ Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle or Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin.

Touted as the “Asian Francis”, Tagle would be hailed by more progressive Catholics, given the changing demographic of the church. However, in November, Parolin, the Vatican’s secretary of state, or highest-ranking diplomat, became the favourite with bookmakers.

Italian academic Massimo Faggioli, a professor of theology and religious studies at Villanova University, said while Francis had made sure that a large majority of cardinals were “his creatures”, the grouping was large and diverse.

“If you pick the cardinal of Singapore and the cardinal of Chicago on the issue of homosexuality, for instance, they are in completely different worlds, and it can be said also on women in the Church,” Faggioli says, adding that it was a “suicidal” mission to even try to predict who Francis’ successor would be.

“We have cardinals from many more countries than ever. It’s very clear that he wants to give more voice to certain areas of the world and rebalance from the Anglo-American prelates. But the problem is that even they don’t know each other well.”

When pressed, he says it’s easier to look at demographics than individual candidates.

“I think it’s extremely unlikely that it will be another Jesuit,” he says. “It’s unlikely that it will be another from Latin America. I think it’s more likely, after a long pontificate of disruption, that the conclave will think that it’s time for someone with a more traditional institutional profile. There are many that fit that bill.”

Experts agree that the circumstances and timing around the next conclave will be critical to who emerges as the next pontiff. Faggioli says the wars in Gaza and Ukraine have cast a shadow and caused internal ructions.

Long-time Vatican correspondent Edward Pentin says there is a strong dynamic to return the papacy to a conservative from Europe, but it is impossible to know how it will play out.

“I don’t like talking about the next pope certainly,” says Pentin, who launched the new website collegeofcardinalsreport.com last month, profiling the men most likely. “But there is a need to do so because when the conclave is called, the cardinals will have just a short window of time to become acquainted with one another.”

Pentin says another cardinal from the developing world, 64-year-old Fridolin Ambongo Besungu of the Democratic Republic of Congo, should be mentioned as a contender, but he thinks the chances of an African pope next time around “seem to be fading”.

Pentin says many conservative Catholics believe American Cardinal Raymond Burke would be a great candidate, though many believe for geopolitical reasons the pope cannot hold the same passport as the leader of a global superpower.

“It’s complex,” he says. “The majority of the cardinals are very much aligned with Francis, but the rest are not. And anyway, that doesn’t necessarily mean that they’ll vote for somebody like him.”

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