North Korean troops fighting for Russia is worldwide wake-up call

Brussels: If proven correct, the revelations that thousands of North Korean troops are set to fight with Russian forces on Ukrainian battlefields represent a terrifying turn of events in the war.

It would be confirmation of what has long been suspected: Russia has now turned to its allies – an informal alliance of China, Iran and North Korea – for help. And those who have argued the war in Ukraine is not Australia’s fight, could no longer afford to turn away.

Thousands of North Korean soldiers are reportedly joining the Russian invasion of Ukraine.Credit: AP

According to South Korea’s spy agency, 1500 North Korean special forces fighters arrived on seven Russian ships early in October. Anonymous sources told South Korean media the final figure could be closer to 12,000.

The troops were supplied with Russian military uniforms, weapons, and fake identification documents for combat deployment. Since August last year, in more than 13,000 containers, North Korea has also shipped Soviet-era weapons that it has maintained since the ceasefire that halted the 1950-1953 Korean War.

That includes two million rounds of artillery, ballistic missiles and anti-tank rockets, the agency said, based on the remnants of weapons recovered from battlefields in Ukraine.

Seoul’s warning of a “grave security risk” followed that of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who says based on his intelligence information 10,000 North Korean soldiers are set to join the fight, calling it “the first step towards a world war”. Some, he said, had already arrived in occupied parts of Ukraine.

Ukrainian spy chief Kyrylo Budanov told the War Zone, a military news website, that 2600 North Koreans will be deployed to fight in Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukraine launched a surprise counterattack in August and now controls a chunk of Russian territory.

The intelligence has yet to be confirmed by Western officials, but NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said on Friday the allies were all monitoring the situation closely.

“At this moment, our official position is that we cannot confirm reports that North Koreans are actively now as soldiers engaged in the war effort,” he said. “But North Korea is supporting Russia in many ways, by weapons supplies, technological supplies, innovation, to support the war effort. And that is highly worrying.”

He said Russia was, in return, having to transfer capabilities and know-how to Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang, making Ukraine’s war “a problem for us all”.

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, right, drives a car in Pyongyang, with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in July.Credit: AP

September was the second-deadliest month for Russian forces fighting in Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion. NATO estimates the average daily casualties for Moscow reached 1271, more than 38,000 for the month.

But Putin troops continue to inch forward in Donbas, with a senior NATO expecting continued Russian tactical advances in the coming months.

And leaning on Kim Jong-un for help gives Putin access to some 1.28 million active-duty troops. They have long been training for potential conflict, but lack actual combat experience. Perhaps that’s why some 18 North Korean soldiers were reported to have deserted the Russian frontline, with Kremlin fighters searching for them.

Meanwhile, Iran has supplied the Shahed drones that regularly pound Ukrainian cities, and has deployed military advisers as well.

Tehran, like Beijing, insists it is not arming Russia, although Washington has said unambiguously that China is aiding Putin’s military. China is also buying Russian energy, and its exports of chips and other supplies are crucial to keeping Moscow’s war machine humming.

Putting aside what Donald Trump might do if he wins, in Brussels this week everyone will tell you that Russian success in Ukraine would likely bring greater US commitment to deterrence in Europe, weakening the US’s capacity to deter China and North Korea in the Indo-Pacific.

Keeping the US distracted from the Indo-Pacific is probably a key motivation behind Beijing’s support for Moscow.

After more than two and half years of conflict in Eastern Europe it is understandable, if not regrettable, that the war in Ukraine is not front-of-mind for everyday Australians.

But it is in Australia’s interests for the conflict to be resolved in Ukraine’s favour as quickly and efficiently as possible, allowing the US to refocus its considerable policy and military might towards the Indo-Pacific. The donation of 49 ageing M1A1 Abrams tanks by Canberra this week was a welcomed contribution.

Ukraine, a sovereign nation, has been attacked without provocation by its neighbour. And as Australia’s Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy said this week, if Putin is successful, it would send a signal to the world that “the only countries that have freedom and the right to sovereignty are large nations”.

A senior NATO official told me that Putin might be willing to talk, but he’s not willing to negotiate.

“We think that so long as Vladimir Putin believes that he is winning, that he is unlikely to engage in any serious negotiations,” he said.

Zelensky might be right. This war may very soon belong to everyone.

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