Germany’s conservatives win election but hard coalition talks loom

Germany’s conservatives won the national election on Sunday, but a fractured vote handed the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) its best-ever result in second place and left conservative leader Friedrich Merz facing messy coalition talks.

Merz, who has no previous experience in office, is set to become chancellor as Europe’s largest economy ails. Its society has split over migration and its security is caught between a confrontational US and an assertive Russia and China.

After the collapse of incumbent Olaf Scholz’s unloved coalition, Merz, 69, must forge a coalition from a fragmented parliament in a process that could take months.

Friedrich Merz, leader of the mainstream conservative Christian Democratic Union party, addresses supporters in Berlin.Credit: AP

His conservative bloc and other mainstream parties have ruled out working with the AfD, a party that has been endorsed by US figures, including billionaire Elon Musk.

Merz took aim at the US in blunt remarks after his victory, criticising the “ultimately outrageous” comments flowing from Washington during the campaign, comparing them to hostile interventions from Russia.

“So we are under such massive pressure from two sides that my absolute priority now is to achieve unity in Europe. It is possible to create unity in Europe,” he told a roundtable with other leaders.

Supporters of the Christian Democratic Union party wait for the election results.Credit: AP

Merz’s broadside against the US came despite US President Donald Trump welcoming the conservative victory.

“Much like the USA, the people of Germany got tired of the no common sense agenda, especially on energy and immigration, that has prevailed for so many years,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Hitherto seen as an atlanticist, Merz said Trump had shown his administration to be “largely indifferent to the fate of Europe”.

Merz’s “absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that we can achieve real independence from the USA step by step”, he said.

Protesters hold a banner saying “Never Forget” outside the far-right AfD party offices in Berlin on Sunday.Credit: AP

He even ventured to ask whether the next summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, which has underpinned Europe’s security for decades, would still see “NATO in its current form”.

Following a campaign roiled by violent attacks for which people of migrant background were arrested, the conservative Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union bloc won 28.5 per cent of the vote, followed by the AfD with 20.5 per cent, according to a projection published by ZDF broadcaster on Sunday evening.

The AfD, which looks set to double its score from the previous vote, saw Sunday’s result as just the beginning.

“Our hand remains outstretched to form a government,” leader Alice Weidel told supporters. “Next time, we’ll come first.“

Volunteers in Munich sort postal votes during Sunday’s national election.Credit: AP

Merz’s juggling act

Merz is heading into coalition talks without a strong negotiating hand. While his CDU/CSU emerged as the largest bloc, it scored its second-worst post-war result.

It remains unclear whether Merz will need one or two partners to form a majority as the fate of smaller parties is unclear in a way that could jumble parliamentary arithmetic.

A three-way coalition would probably be much more unwieldy, hampering Germany’s ability to show clear leadership.

Scholz’s Social Democrats tumbled to their worst result since World War II. It garnered just 16.5 per cent of the vote share. The chancellor conceded a “bitter” result, according to the ZDF projection. The Greens were on 11.9 per cent.

Strong support, particularly from younger voters, pushed the far-left Die Linke party to 8.7 per cent of the vote. The pro-market Free Democrats (FDP) and newcomer Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) party hovered around the 5 per cent threshold to enter parliament.

Voter turnout at 83 per cent was the highest since before reunification in 1990, according to exit polls. Male voters tended more towards the right, while female voters showed stronger support for leftist parties.

“A three-party coalition runs the risk of more muddling through and more stagnation unless all parties involved realise that this is the last chance to bring change and to prevent the AfD from getting stronger,” ING global head of macro Carsten Brzeski said.

“As long as the new government does not bring significant change, foreign investments will also be held back, weakening Germany’s economic outlook.”

Caretaker Scholz

Merz, a brash economic liberal who has shifted the conservatives to the right, is considered the antithesis of former conservative chancellor Angela Merkel, who led Germany for 16 years.

Merz conditionally supports equipping Ukraine with longer-range Taurus missiles, a step Scholz’s government shied away from.

Sunday’s election came after the collapse last November of Scholz’s coalition of his SPD, the Greens and the pro-market Free Democratic Party in a row over budget spending.

Lengthy coalition talks could leave Scholz in a caretaker role for months, delaying urgently needed policies to revive the German economy after two consecutive years of contraction and as companies struggle against global rivals.

A delay would also create a leadership vacuum in the heart of Europe even as it deals with a host of challenges such as Trump threatening a trade war and attempting to fast-track a ceasefire deal for Ukraine without European involvement.

Germans are more pessimistic about their living standards now than at any time since the financial crisis in 2008.

Attitudes towards migration have also hardened, a profound shift in German public sentiment since its “Refugees Welcome” culture during Europe’s migrant crisis in 2015, that the AfD has both driven and harnessed.

Reuters

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