By David Crowe
London: An open dispute over defence spending has highlighted the deep objections to Donald Trump at a NATO summit where the US president expects European leaders to more than double their security budgets.
A deal has been struck to commit most NATO members to the ambitious new target – 5 per cent of GDP – but Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has refused to back the goal when most countries spend 2 per cent today.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has refused to back the NATO defence spending goal.Credit: AP
“Going from 2 per cent to 5 per cent would force us to cross our red lines, would force us to either have to drastically raise taxes on the middle class, or severely cut the size of our welfare state,” he said.
Sanchez, who is under severe domestic pressure due to a corruption scandal, claimed a carveout from the NATO agreement to achieve the higher target, only to have the Western military alliance’s leadership dispute his claims.
“NATO does not have, as an alliance, opt-outs, side deals, et cetera, because we all have to chip in,” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, a former prime minister of the Netherlands, declared on Monday.
The dissent has heightened the friction over Trump’s demands when European leaders are clearly reluctant to endorse his show of force against Iran, even as they criticise the Iranian nuclear program.
With Russia bombarding Ukraine with missiles and drones each night, the spending debate is a crucial test for European leaders, as Trump has made it clear they cannot expect an unlimited American guarantee over their security.
NATO members – 30 European states as well as the United States and Canada – agreed to a 2 per cent defence spending target in 2014, the year Russia annexed the Crimea. But several countries – including Italy and Spain – have yet to reach the goal.
Poland spent 4.1 per cent of GDP on defence last year, according to official NATO figures, while Estonia spent 3.4 per cent and Latvia spent 3.1 per cent. Germany, France and the Netherlands spent slightly more than 2 per cent, while the UK spent 2.3 per cent.
Rutte has urged member countries to aim for a massive increase, with 3.5 per cent to be spent on the military and another 1.5 per cent on supporting services such as cybersecurity, roads and ports.
Speaking in London earlier this month, he had a grim warning for the British: “If you do not do this, if you would not go to the 5 per cent, including the 3.5 per cent core defence spending, you could still have the National Health Service, or in other countries their health systems, the pension system, et cetera, but you had better learn to speak Russian.”
But there is an awkward fact behind Trump’s demands for mammoth European spending: the US itself devoted 3.4 per cent of GDP to defence last year, according to the NATO tally. While Trump has spoken of increasing the Pentagon’s budget to more than $US1 trillion ($1.54 trillion), that will depend on the US Congress.
In any case, Trump expects Europe to commit to a target he will not endorse for himself.
“I don’t think we should, but I think they should,” he said of the spending goal last Friday. “We’ve been supporting NATO [for] so long.”
What is missing from the NATO debate, however, is a detailed plan for where the money would go. The percentage target is wholly theoretical unless it comes with specific proposals to expand industrial capacity and military production.
The disagreements at the summit, due to begin in The Hague on Tuesday, will come at a time when outside support for the Atlantic security pact has moderated this year.
The summit has lost the top-level participation of three of the four Indo-Pacific nations (IP4) – Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand – invited to the defence meetings each year.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba cancelled his attendance on Monday amid doubts about whether he would meet Trump, while South Korean President Lee Jae-myung cited the “growing instability in the Middle East” as one reason to withdraw.
This means Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is not alone among IP4 leaders in choosing not to attend NATO this year, amid the domestic furore about whether he would meet the US president. Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles will represent Australia at the summit.
While New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is in Europe for meetings and is due to attend NATO, he told reporters on Monday he did not expect a meeting with Trump.
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