After 1000 days of bloodshed, Ukraine faces a fresh risk

The return of Donald Trump to the Oval Office has thrown a new focus on Russia’s appalling invasion of Ukraine, which can only be a good thing.

However, the means by which the 47th US president plans to end the bloodshed triggered by Vladimir Putin is not at all clear. And that is why so many Ukrainians – including in Australia – are filled with dread and anxiety.

November 19 marks 1000 days since Russia’s invasion, a sobering milestone in a war littered with other grim records. In August, US officials estimated Russia had suffered 300,000 casualties, made up of 120,000 deaths and 180,000 injured. Ukraine is said to have lost about 70,000, with at least 120,000 wounded.

Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump shake hands in 2019 in New York.Credit: AP

Alarmingly, intelligence also suggests the Russian military has assembled a force of 50,000 soldiers, including North Korean troops, as it prepares an assault aimed at reclaiming territory seized by Ukraine in the Kursk region of Russia.

In a new interview, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the war would “end sooner” once Trump became US president than it otherwise would have. He said he was prepared to do everything possible to end the conflict through diplomatic means.

Throughout his campaign, Trump and his running mate, J.D. Vance, had cast strong doubts on continued US commitment to Kyiv. He has said the $US61 billion ($94.4 billion) in military aid that Washington has sent to Ukraine was a drain on American resources. The conflict has been ongoing for more than 2½ years, following the large-scale invasion of Russian forces in February 2022.

Trump was clear that he would not tolerate the status quo with the US’s support of Ukraine when he this week nominated Republican senator Marco Rubio for secretary of state. Rubio previously said the war had reached a stalemate. Trump’s pick for defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, has also said he believes the US is spending too much money on the fight.

As Europe correspondent Rob Harris reports, the path ahead is perilous. Putin has previously said peace is possible only if Kyiv formally renounces any plans to join NATO. He also demanded Ukraine surrender four regions in the south and east of the country, as well as Crimea, which Zelensky has so far refused to contemplate.

Trump has suggested he would halt US aid if Zelensky refuses to negotiate a ceasefire with Moscow. But if Putin rejects peace proposals, Trump has said he could instead ramp up weapons deliveries to Ukraine.

Trump’s unpredictability on foreign affairs may prove an advantage, and the outcome he engineers may surprise us. Ending the war would be welcome, but it must be a resolution Ukraine supports. The stakes for Ukraine and the global rules-based order are too high for anything less.

In the meantime, all Australians must continue to support Ukraine’s military effort and the many Ukrainians here who fear for the future of their homeland.

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