By Rod Nickel and Allison Lampert
- Canada's Liberals brace for potential transition to power
- Canada's elections could hinge on immigration and religious issues
Calgary: Canadians looked set for political change as Monday polls showed a strong prospect that Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government will be ousted, or reduced to a minority, amid a late surge by Liberal rival Justin Trudeau.
The 11-week campaign was considered too close to call for nearly two months, a virtual tie between the Conservatives, Liberals and left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP).
But less than 20 minutes after east coast polls closed, Canadian CTV News projected a win for Mr Trudeau, ending the Conservatives' nine-year run in power and reflecting a political shift away from Harper's brand of fiscal and cultural conservatism.
CTV did not say whether its projections showed the Liberals would win a majority of the seats in Parliament.
This close: Recent polling has shown that the Liberals, led by Justin Trudeau, son of former prime minister Pierre, had taken an advance over the ruling Conservative party led by Stephen Harper.Credit: The Canadian Press/AP
CBC News is also projecting a win for the Liberals.
The emergence of Mr Trudeau, the 43-year-old son of former prime minister Pierre Trudeau, as front runner in recent polls has much of Canada's national media writing Mr Harper's political obituary.
"Fear of Harper" has spurred more Canadians to vote, said youth worker Hilary Chapple after casting her ballot at the city hall in Calgary, Alberta province's energy capital.
"People are now engaged more. They want to change things," she said.
Liberal leader Justin Trudeau picks pumpkins with his wife Sophie and son Xavier, last week in Gatineau, Quebec. Credit: The Canadian Press/AP
Still, a potential three-way split in votes would make it hard for either the Conservatives or centre-left Liberals to win a majority of seats. A minority victory would likely presage another election in less than two years.
The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart ahead of the vote, a decline some market players attributed in part to the prospect of a Trudeau win. The Liberals have pledged to run budget deficits to boost infrastructure spending.
Conservative leader Stephen Harper attends a campaign event in Quebec City on Friday.Credit: The Canadian Press/AP
The Conservatives have tended to surpass poll forecasts, in part because of a strong get-out-the-vote machine. Mr Harper exceeded expectations by winning a majority in 2011 after two minorities in 2006 and 2008.
Eric Tonellato gave his vote to Mr Harper because he likes his promise of lower taxes and banning women from wearing a niqab during certain citizenship ceremonies.
New Democratic Party leader Tom Mulcair at a rally in Vancouver, British Columbia, on Saturday.Credit: The Canadian Press/AP
"We need to maintain our Canadian traditions," he said after voting in Finance Minister Joe Oliver's Toronto riding, or electoral district.
The NDP, an early favourite to win, has faded to third place but could play a major power-broking role in a minority situation. The NDP has said it would topple a Harper government at the earliest opportunity but would probably co-operate with a Liberal minority government, at least in part, to delay a costly new election.
Conservative supporters in Laval, Quebec. The country's second-most-populous province will be crucial to the result.Credit: The Canadian Press/AP
The election could be decided once polls close in Ontario and Quebec, Canada's two largest provinces, which hold a combined 199 seats of the 338-seat Parliament, at 9.30pm ET (12.30pm ADST). A close election could make the Pacific province of British Columbia the decider. Polls there close at 10pm.
Political pundits began to speculate on the make-up of a Trudeau government in the final weekend of the campaign while pondering what caused the downfall of Mr Harper, 56, who has been criticised for his aloof personality but has won credit for economic management in a decade of global fiscal uncertainty.
Based on early vote counting Monday night in Canada, the Liberals had picked up at least 180 of the 338 lower house seats to put them on track to unexpectedly claim a majority. Credit: AP
If he wins, Mr Trudeau has promised to follow a more multilateral approach on the global stage than has Mr Harper and to repair Canada's relationship with the United States.
Mr Harper's campaign has focused on him, with Conservative ministers making rock-star-style introductions of the prime minister at rallies.
Reuters