‘We don’t think it’s sustainable’: WHO questions China’s zero-COVID strategy

London: China’s stringent zero-Covid strategy is “not sustainable” in the face of the highly contagious Omicron variant, the head of the World Health Organisation has warned.

In a rare public criticism of an individual government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus suggested it is “very important” that China shifts away from a zero-tolerance approach.

worker disinfects the walkway near closed shops in the usually bustling Taikoo Li mall after many retail stores were closed to help prevent the spread of COVID-19 Credit: Kevin Frayer

“When we talk about the zero-COVID strategy, we don’t think that it’s sustainable, considering the behaviour of the virus now and what we anticipate in the future,” Tedros told journalists.

“We have discussed... this issue with Chinese experts and we indicated that the approach will not be sustainable. And considering the behaviour of the virus, I think a shift would be very important.”

The intervention comes after researchers warned that China is at risk of unleashing a major Omicron wave that could trigger 1.55 million deaths in the next six months if all restrictions are lifted without boosting both vaccination rates and access to treatments.

The modelling paper, published in Nature by scientists in the US and China, has highlighted the dilemma facing Beijing due to low rates of natural immunity, patchy vaccination coverage and slightly less effective shots.

Researchers estimated that an uncontrolled Omicron wave could trigger 122 million symptomatic infections, 2.7 million intensive care admissions and 1.55 million fatalities over the next six months, if vaccine uptake does not improve.

Women ride a scooter past a billboard for a COVID-19 vaccination drive.Credit: Kevin Frayer

Around three quarters of these fatalities would occur among unvaccinated people over the age of 60 - despite making up about one-eighth of the population - while peak demand on intensive care would hit more than 15 times capacity.

China’s vaccination rates among the most vulnerable are lacking, with only around 61 per cent of those over 60 having had three shots. This is of particular concern as an analysis of the country’s home-grown jabs has found that a booster jab is critical to maintain high protection against severe disease and death.

Prof Ben Cowling, an epidemiologist at Hong Kong University who was not involved in the study, said the paper should not be seen as an endorsement of zero-COVID.

“The availability of vaccines and antiviral drugs offer an opportunity to move away from zero-COVID,” he told Reuters. “I can’t think what there is now to wait for.”

But the study also shines a spotlight on China’s singular approach to COVID. Experts have already criticised the country for failing to prioritise the elderly in vaccination drives, while resources have been focused on relentless testing, contact tracing and quarantining.

Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow for global health Dr Yanzhong Huang previously told The Telegraph that healthcare personnel were mobilised to conduct PCR tests and enforce the quarantine while some hospitals are being closed.

“You don’t have the services providing vaccines to those who want to be vaccinated, not to mention those who are hesitant,” he said.

He added that China had not launched an effective public health strategy to persuade the hesitant to take shots.

Speaking at the WHO press conference on Tuesday, Dr Mike Ryan, head of the WHO’s emergencies programme, said that it was time for China to hit the reset button.

“We need to balance the control measures against the impact on society, the impact they have on the economy, and that’s not always an easy calibration,” he said, adding that China should show “due respect to individual and human rights”.

But Shanghai, which has been locked down for six weeks, has doubled down on its stringent pandemic restrictions, with local media reporting that two subway lines still operating have been suspended - marking the first time the city’s entire system has been shut down.

And, despite mounting frustrations among the public and a sharp fall in cases - from a peak of 26,000 in mid-April to roughly 3,000 on Monday - authorities have ordered people in some districts to remain home once again, after allowing limited access to shops.

Telegraph, London

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