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Kim Jong-un rips up plan to reunify Korea, raising fears of all-out war
By Nicola Smith
For more than 20 years, the Arch of Reunification straddled the highway from Pyongyang to the heavily guarded border with South Korea as a symbol of hope that two countries ripped apart by war would one day be reunited.
But this week it lay crushed to dust, along with a goal that had spanned three generations of the Kim family dynasty to reconcile the North with the South of the Korean peninsula, under Pyongyang’s control.
The Arch of Reunification, a monument to symbolise the hope for eventual reunification of the two Koreas, in Pyongyang, North Korea. Credit: AP
New satellite images, analysed by NK News, showed the nine-storey monument – depicting two women in traditional dress reaching forward to jointly hold a globe with a map of a unified Korea – had been torn down days after Kim Jong-un called it “an eyesore”.
Even before the arch’s destruction, the North Korean leader had had a belligerent start to the year. He publicly abandoned the unification aims of his forefathers, declaring the constitution be changed to designate South Korea the “principal enemy,” and to codify “completely occupying” it in the event of war.
Kim’s warmongering tone was accompanied by tests of a nuclear-capable ballistic missile and a suspected underwater nuclear weapons system. That followed revelations by US intelligence that Russia had fired North Korean-supplied ballistic missiles into Ukraine.
This satellite image from Planet Labs PBC appears to show the Pyongyang’s Monument to the Three Charters for National Reunification, which was also commonly called the Arch of Reunification, destroyed in Pyongyang, North Korea.Credit: AP Planet Labs PBC
On Sunday, North Korea fired multiple cruise missiles off its east coast, its second such launch in less than a week.
Seasoned North Korea experts warn Kim is not just experiencing a fit of pique, but has signalled an unprecedented shift in ideology that could lead his nation down a dangerous path to accidental conflict.
Some even believe he has opted to deliberately start one.
“The situation on the Korean Peninsula is more dangerous than it has been at any time since early June 1950,” wrote Robert L Carlin, a former CIA analyst, and Siegfried S Hecker, a nuclear scientist who has frequently visited the North, on the respected 38 North website.
They referred to the timing of the start of the Korean War that devastated and split the Peninsula.
“We believe that, like his grandfather in 1950, Kim Jong-un has made a strategic decision to go to war. We do not know when or how Kim plans to pull the trigger, but the danger is already far beyond the routine warnings in Washington, Seoul and Tokyo about Pyongyang’s ‘provocations’,” they said.
Most analysts disagree with their doomsday prediction, arguing that Kim would not risk the obliteration of his regime through all-out war. But many concede that in a world of rapidly changing battle lines and geopolitical alliances, his renewed threats are a cause for alarm.
Experts such as Chun In-bum, a retired general who once commanded South Korea’s special forces, believe Kim could engage in more limited military aggression now that he has taken the “significant” step to reject the historic common bond between North and South.
“This is not just rhetoric,” he said. “It is increasing tensions, and when you have people who are trigger happy, all tensed up, you are going to have a big problem.”
Kim had lost patience with South Korea and the United States, and while “he doesn’t have the capability to start a major war,” a possible flashpoint could be his claims around the Northern Limit Line (NLL), the disputed maritime boundary between North and South, said Gen Chun. “He has implied he is not going to respect that.”
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said Kim’s policy shift appeared to be an attempt to justify his expensive pursuit of nuclear missiles and failure to win sanctions relief, while aligning himself closer to Russia and China.
“North Korea is now exploiting ‘Cold War 2.0’ geopolitics to become more interdependent with, rather than dependent on, Russia and China. Through illicit trade in violation of UN sanctions, Pyongyang seeks to revitalise its economy and act as a more significant military power,” he said.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.Credit: KCNA
The bellicose moves have combined to dash hopes for reconciliation and nuclear disarmament, with Kim’s motivation likely to be blaming South Korea for his costly policies to maintain power, Professor Easley added.
“While the Kim regime may be playing to its domestic political audience, these moves risk unintended escalation and inadvertent conflict on the Korean Peninsula,” he said.
Telegram, London
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