He said, Xi said: Why Beijing may seek to exploit Philippine political divorce

You’ve heard of failed marriages, but this is ridiculous. Two powerful dynasties came together a couple of years ago to form a political marriage of convenience that swept them to power to rule the Philippines.

“Bongbong” Marcos, son of the late corrupt dictator Ferdinand Marcos, became president. His clan is dominant in the north of the South-East Asian archipelago of 115 million. His running mate, Sara Duterte, daughter of the bloodthirsty vigilante ex-president Rodrigo Duterte, took the vice presidency. Her family is ascendant in the south of the cyclone-smitten tropical democracy.

President of the Philippines Bongbong Marcos and Vice President Sara Duterte.Credit: Dionne Gain

But the swift and savage breakdown of their partnership was on bizarre display at the weekend when Sara Duterte called a predawn press conference on Zoom to announce that she had engaged a hitman to kill Bongbong Marcos. Yes, you read correctly. The vice president advertised that she intended to murder the president. It wasn’t unconditional. She’d instructed the assassin to kill Marcos only if she were killed first. Mind you, she didn’t cite any particular threat against her, only that she’d “heard things”.

It’s reminiscent of Donald Trump’s falling-out with his vice president, Mike Pence, in 2021, when Pence insisted on observing the constitution and certified the election of Joe Biden as president. Trump watched on in silence for hours while his mob searched the Capitol, chanting “hang Mike Pence”.

But, in this instance in the Philippines, the instigator is not hiding behind a mob. And the promised violence is more feudal. Sara Duterte told the press conference that she’d ordered the unnamed hitman to kill Marcos, his wife and the Speaker of the House.

She related to reporters her conversation with the assassin: “I gave instructions: ‘If I die, don’t stop until you kill them.’ And then he said, ‘Yes’.”

Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, right, with Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2016.Credit: NG HAN GUAN

Is she serious? “No joke, no joke,” she assured the press. And the president’s spokesperson didn’t think it very amusing: “Any threat to the life of the president must always be taken seriously, more so that this threat has been publicly revealed in clear and certain terms.” Police and prosecutors announced that they were investigating.

Is she deranged? Quite possibly, but all within the normal realm of Philippine politics. On Saturday, she announced an assassination plan, and on Monday she indignantly complained that she’d been “maliciously taken out of logical context”.

And there is a political logic to these antics. Sara Duterte is under House investigation for abuse of some $16 million in public funds. The vice president’s wild theatrics are a calculated distraction. If this were the full picture, it’d be a zany political South-East Asian soap opera for the entertainment of Filipinos as they approach the election due in May. But not much more.

As it happens, the stakes are vastly bigger. Because one of the defining differences between Duterte and Marcos is foreign policy. Like her dad, Duterte favours Beijing over Washington in the historic confrontation between the two great powers. Marcos, in stark contrast, has returned the Philippines to its former status as a US ally.

President Joe Biden with Philippines President “Bongbong” Marcos at the White House in May 2023.Credit: Carolyn Kaster

And the Philippines occupies a crucial geography in what Joe Biden has called “the competition with China to win the 21st century”. It has been called a “frontline state”.

The north-south archipelagic coastlines of the Philippines delimit the eastern shore of the South China Sea for some 1500 kilometres. And it is a mere 400 kilometres south of Taiwan. So it has a potentially decisive part in the People’s Liberation Army’s ambitions to claim ownership of both.

Beijing appeared to have neutralised the Philippines during the term of Rodrigo Duterte from 2016 to 2022. But as China’s armed forces seized one Philippine maritime feature after another, Bongbong Marcos has led a new resistance, with the support of the Philippines people and the US government.

Joe Biden repeatedly has sworn to defend its oldest treaty ally in Asia against any Chinese attack. The US has also convened a new quad of allies this year – Australia and Japan, together with the US and the Philippines – to conduct joint naval patrols of the Philippine exclusive economic zone. The group’s nickname is “the squad”. In effect, Australia is now a party to a potential clash.

Marcos jnr adopted a policy of “radical transparency” against the relentless intrusions of Chinese vessels into Philippine territorial waters.

Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte on November 13 in Quezon City, Philippines.Credit: AP

By sending boatloads of journalists and cameras to observe the encounters, the Philippines has won the contest for local and international public opinion. But China is winning the campaign for maritime territory. Shrewdly employing muscle without munitions, it keeps its campaign just below the threshold of kinetic war.

As Marcos vows to fight for every inch of territory, his administration has given the US military access to five Philippine military bases, in addition to the four from which it could operate previously.

Most recently, the US temporarily deployed a missile system to the Philippines as part of a joint exercise. Beijing protested vociferously; the missiles have sufficient range to reach the Taiwan Strait, the full breadth of the South China Sea and China itself.

The US and Philippines have agreed to leave the Typhon system in place indefinitely, and the Marcos government says it is considering buying several such systems to improve deterrence against China. The harder China pushes, the harder Marcos resists.

Now, with a new US president on the way, the US Navy is on alert for the possibility that Xi Jinping will apply an early test to Donald Trump’s resolve. Three US aircraft carriers – that had been diverted to the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine – will be repositioned in Asia by next week.

“China is going to try and test the Trump administration early, probably around Taiwan or the South China Sea, or both,” Jacob Stokes of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at Centre for a New American Security told Japan’s Nikkei news outlet.

In any such case, the Philippines would be in the middle of the action. Its political marital troubles would acquire a whole new significance.

Peter Hartcher is international editor.