‘Everything is riding on this’: Nobel winner Maria Ressa and the fight for democracy in the Philippines

Singapore: After what will be six years under the presidency of Rodrigo Duterte, Maria Ressa believes the importance of next May’s elections in the Philippines cannot be overstated.

“Everything is riding on this,” the journalist and freshly minted Nobel peace prize winner told The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age from Manila.

Philippine journalist and Rappler CEO Maria Ressa was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for her fight for freedom of expression. Credit: AP

“It is an existential moment for our democracy.“

Ressa should know. The outcome of the next presidential poll in south-east Asia’s second most populous nation might very well determine whether or not she goes to jail.

As co-founder and chief executive of independent news outlet Rappler, she is still fighting multiple “manufactured” court cases arising from the site’s fearless, aggressive coverage of the Duterte regime and its bloody war on drugs. They include an appeal against a conviction for cyber libel that could land her in prison for six years.

The legal action prevents her from leaving the country to fly to Oslo to collect the Nobel prize, which she was awarded this month along with Russian journalist Dmitry Muratov for their “their efforts to safeguard freedom of expression”.

As much as being barred from travelling pains the former CNN reporter, though, the bigger picture of where her country is heading is at the front of her mind.

The Philippines is in full pre-election mode, with wannabe presidents filing their candidacy in the past fortnight and beginning their campaigns to succeed the populist Duterte when his six-year term expires next year.

Already it is a big-name field. There is boxing champion and senator Manny Pacquiao, opposition leader and Vice-President Leni Robredo, Manila mayor and actor Isko Moreno and Ronaldo “Bato” dela Rosa, another senator who as police chief drove Duterte’s deadly anti-narcotics offensive and is on record as saying he would kill for the President.

Then there is Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos jnr, the son and namesake of the late Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos, who is striving to return his family to the Malacanang, the presidential palace, 35 years after his father was ousted by people power and they were forced into exile.

To top it off, analysts also expect Duterte’s daughter Sara, the mayor of Davao City, to run under a substitution rule that permits candidates to make a late entry to the race as Duterte himself did in 2015.

Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos jnr is emerging as the top candidate of the presidential right.Credit: AP

Macro and industry research firm Fitch Solutions predicts “a shift to a liberal democratic presidency remains of low probability”. It forecasts most candidates will provide a policy continuity of some kind from the Duterte administration, although it notes several have said they will end Duterte’s drug war and take a tougher stand against China on territorial disputes in the South China Sea.

Rights groups estimate more than 20,000 people have been killed in Duterte’s crackdown on drugs, which is being investigated by the International Criminal Court. Sixty-three lawyers have also been murdered during his presidency as well as 20 journalists amid a culture of impunity that has seen the Philippines fall 51 places in five years on the World Justice Project’s Rule of Law Index.

Ressa, who has felt the weight of Duterte’s attempts to suppress media, argues it will take a generation for the Philippines to recover from his time in charge, “the same as it took us a long time to recover from the almost 21 years of Marcos”.

She has railed against social media giants like Facebook for allowing the Duterte government to weaponise the internet, targeting opponents and seeking to “attack and change reality” with disinformation, and fears it may again be a key factor in next year’s election.

Vice-President Leni Robredo congratulated Ressa on her Nobel prize.Credit: Getty Images

“More than anywhere, our election in May is going to be a test for the American companies – the social media platforms – because this will truly be a battle for facts,” she said.

“We won’t have integrity of elections if we don’t have integrity of facts ... if they don’t put guardrails in to protect the facts.“

She adds: “The rest is up to the Philippine people. You get the democracy you deserve.“

While Robredo presents as a leading moderate candidate – she heralded Ressa last week for her “tireless efforts to hold the line for truth and accountability” – Marcos jnr is emerging as the top contender of the Filipino right, according to political commentator Richard Heydarian.

He believes Sara Duterte will join the race, replacing another of the dozens of presidential candidates by the November 15 deadline, as can occur under electoral rules. But he argues she risks having her thunder stolen by the offspring of another strongman if she does deploy that tactic.

“Everyone is expecting Sara Duterte to pull off some substitution manoeuvre next month,” said the prominent Manila-based academic.

“But for me, the whole point of the substitute candidate manoeuvre is to achieve two objectives. First of all: shock and awe against rivals and opponent, which is what Duterte was able to achieve when he pulled off the same manoeuvre back in 2015 ahead of the 2016 elections. Number two is to have a rallying effect ... so if you say you’re not going to run, there will be a nationwide clamour for you to run.

“None of that has really happened in the case of Sara. Everyone expects her to do it so whether she does it or not, there is no element of surprise. Secondly, we don’t see any kind of nationwide clamour similar to what Duterte was able to inspire back in 2016.”

Sara Duterte has insisted she will not put her name forward for the presidency and will instead run for a third term as mayor of Davao City, a post her father previously held for 22 years.

Duterte has himself aborted a plan to continue in the corridors of power by nominating for the vice-presidency next year. The 76-year-old now says he will retire from politics and ready a defence against the ICC probe.

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