Advantage Lions: Relying on England the right call for tourists

There is only one positional unit in the British and Irish Lions squad announced overnight on Thursday in which an Englishman is not present, and even that might be a moot point with Northampton winger Tommy Freeman capable of playing in the No.13 jersey if Huw Jones (Scotland) or Garry Ringrose (Ireland) are injured.

Not even the Irish can claim that spread of players throughout the squad, with No.10s Sam Prendergast and Jack Crowley notably omitted in favour of England’s Fin Smith and Marcus Smith.

The squad shows that Lions coach Andy Farrell has been smart and flexible enough to see a late shift in the power dynamics between the Lions nations, with brilliant 20-year-old flanker Henry Pollock also rewarded for a brilliant performance in Northampton’s win against Leinster in Dublin last weekend.

None of this is good news for the Wallabies. The earlier prospect of an underwhelming Lions squad was based on the premise that Ireland had plateaued, and while that is arguably still true it did not factor in an England rise.

But that is what has happened, both late in the Six Nations and through Northampton’s exploits in European club rugby. Pollock, Fin Smith, Freeman, and England’s hugely improved scrum work must all be recognised.

Lions captain Maro Itoje and coach Andy Farrell.Credit: Getty Images

Farrell has not abandoned his Ireland core. How could he after they beat the All Blacks in New Zealand in 2022 and drew with the Springboks in South Africa in 2024? But the Lions are now firm favourites, and a breakdown of their strengths compared to Australia follows.

Hookers

Dan Sheehan (Ireland), Ronan Kelleher (Ireland), Luke Cowan-Dickie (England). Sheehan was one of the few who really took the fight to the brilliant French during the Six Nations, and the world-class No.2 will be favoured to start against the Wallabies. Kelleher and Cowan-Dickie are mobile and combative.
Verdict: Advantage Lions.

Props

Zander Fagerson (Scotland), Tadhg Furlong (Ireland), Will Stuart (England), Ellis Genge (England), Andrew Porter (Ireland), Pierre Schoeman (Scotland). It’s the depth here that should concern Wallabies fans. Furlong and Porter should start, with Genge and Stuart on the bench - or Farrell could even flip that around. Beware, the England pack that played against Australia last November have gone up a few gears since then, especially Genge and Stuart at scrum time.
Verdict: Advantage Lions

Second rowers

Tadhg Beirne (Ireland), Ollie Chessum (England), Scott Cummings (Scotland), Maro Itoje (England, captain), Joe McCarthy (Ireland), James Ryan (Ireland). Itoje has been outstanding for years, and the consensus up north is that captaincy brings out the best in him. The remainder offer a mix of power (McCarthy), lineout prowess (Ryan) and breakdown prowess (Beirne), although it would not be a surprise to see the latter played at No.6 at some point.
Verdict: Advantage Lions

Sione Tuipulotu was unveiled as a Lion.Credit: Getty Images

Loose forwards

Jack Conan (Ireland), Tom Curry (England), Ben Earl (England), Jac Morgan (Wales), Henry Pollock (England), Josh van der Flier (Ireland). This is an area where the Wallabies shouldn’t be beaten, given the presence of the Rob Valetini and the injury-enforced absence of Ireland No.8 Caelan Doris. Jack Conan is a capable replacement, but if you were picking holes the Lions look a bit same-same in this department with five natural open sides named. Depending on selection and fitness the Wallabies could even edge them here, although the freakish Pollock could quickly make that assessment look foolish.
Verdict: Advantage Wallabies

Halfbacks

Jamison Gibson-Park (Ireland), Alex Mitchell (Northampton), Tomos Williams (Wales). Mitchell missed England’s Tests last November, and the drop-off in England’s attacking threat was substantial. He was found out a bit on defence against Ireland in the Six Nations, but his running game is elite, and he could play a big role off the bench. Gibson-Park, one of seven ‘Sanzar’ Lions, is among the world’s best.
Verdict: Advantage Lions

No.10s

Finn Russell (Scotland), Fin Smith (England), Marcus Smith (England). Farrell has left the door open for his son Owen to join the squad at a later date, but it look like the No.10 jersey will be a shootout between Russell and Fin Smith. The latter was exceptional against Leinster last week and was also the architect of England’s win against France in the Six Nations. But Russell could be a big issue for the Wallabies if the Lions pack gets on the front foot.
Verdict: Advantage Lions

Midfielders

Sione Tuipulotu (Scotland), Bundee Aki (Ireland), Huw Jones (Scotland), Garry Ringrose (Ireland), Elliot Daly (England). There are a few injury clouds over Tuipulotu, who hasn’t played since January, and Jones, so there could yet be a bit of movement in this area. Even if they both are fit enough to make the plane the Wallabies look capable of matching the tourists. Len Ikitau, Joseph Aukuso-Suaalii and Hunter Paisami all have quality, with Suaalii certain to feature prominently in the Lions’ defensive conversations.
Verdict: Draw

Outside backs

Tommy Freeman (England), Mack Hansen (Ireland), Hugo Keenan (Ireland), Blair Kinghorn, James Lowe (Ireland), Duhan van der Merwe (Scotland). The Wallabies should breathe a sign of relief that England winger Immanuel Feyi-Waboso is injured, although Farrell could yet be leaving a spot open for him. He would add some electricity to the back three, although Lowe, van der Merwe and Freeman are certainly good enough to do some damage on their own.
Verdict: Advantage Lions

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