Tips and race-by-guide for Kembla Grange on Thursday
By Neil Evans
Track heavy 9 and rail out 6m.
Race 1: 4YO & UP MAIDEN PLATE (1600m)
Despite not much rain around, the surface was rated heavy in the lead-up, and that augurs well for 3. Irish Anthem who is bursting to win one fifth-up. Has worked home nicely from well back in his last three, the latest coming through inferior ground to be beaten only a length. Gets an extra 100m here, with blinkers being added, and has a near 50 per cent place record from 14 starts.
Dangers: Big watch on 7. Dubai Dame getting to an ideal distance third-up. Lightly raced 4. Kazotsky chased valiantly first-up at Newcastle, and the winner of that race scored again on Tuesday. Tricky draw, though, and up 300m in trip five weeks between runes is a query. 8. Finger Bun, a mare by So You Think, debuts for the Nathan Doyle yard behind two improving trials; while 1. Equilibrist draws inside fourth-up, and goes in wider exotics.
How to play it: Irish Anthem to win.
Race 2: BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1600m)
Talented 1. Copacabana can hit back hard here, with a significant change of jockey, and is drawn to get to the outside. Strolled home as a hot favourite two starts back before being stiff not to win at Hawkesbury over this journey. Bred to thrive on rain-affected ground.
Dangers: 4. Audrey’s Lane will need to tuck in from a wide barrier, but she’s on the improve third-up and right at home on wet going. Must keep safe progressive filly 10. Empress Of Japan who hasn’t had much luck in two provincial runs this prep hitting the line late; while 11. Graceful Artist third-up heads the rest.
How to play it: Copacabana to win.
Race 3: BENCHMARK 64 HCP (2000m)
Lightly raced three-year-old 9. Fiftyfivechevy steps up sharply in distance and class off a dominant country maiden win 23 days ago. Will only be suited more over a longer journey dropping to the minimum weight, and can thrive in these conditions being by multiple Group-winning mudlark Puissance de Lune.
Dangers: 3. Highborn Harry ran home well late at Hawkesbury over this trip, and an experienced rider goes on. 1. Fleet Commander can peak in the going getting to this longer trip fourth-up, and coming back in grade. Progressive colt 8. Masuke charged home to beat a Class 1 field at Newcastle, but is likely to go right back from this wider draw and over further. Include 2. Spitfire who has been freshened.
How to play it: Fiftyfivechevy to win.
Racing returns to Kembla Grange on Thursday.Credit: Jenny Evans
Race 4: COLTS, GELDINGS & ENTIRE MAIDEN HCP (1200m)
Open sprint with a stack of chances, but it shapes best for emerging colt 9. Chiba who re-loads three weeks after a fair debut at Hawkesbury when placed after leading early. Blinkers go on to sharpen him up, and he’s bred to thrive on any rain-affected ground.
Dangers: 4. Indecisive is sound value back from metro company fourth-up although unproven in the going. Resuming 3. French Ruler will have a task from a wide gate, but his debut run in heavy ground at Canterbury early winter was a solid pointer. 5. The Act is having just his second start after flopping on debut as a hot favourite, and will need some early breaks from wider out. At bigger odds, keep safe 12. Rock Revolution who has the blinkers on for his second start; while 11. Just Think Twice, a colt by Russian Revolution on debut for the Chris Waller yard, goes into exotic plays.
How to play it: Chiba to win.
Race 5: FILLIES & MARES MAIDEN HCP (1200m)
Emerging filly 7. Idolised reboots 19 days after an even effort at this track on debut in a Super Maiden when fading late into a place. Fitter now, she will find this more to her liking again from a nice trailing draw, and can relish the conditions being by Zoustar out of a Snitzel mare. Was preferred here to Wednesday’s Rosehill card.
Dangers: This looks an ideal return race for 1. Celestial Bling who hasn’t started since debuting in the group 3 Gimcrack last spring, but two trials leading in have been strong. Over the odds is 4. Overwatch, resuming with a gear change from a handy tailing draw behind two trials. Improving 6. Flying Embers can run into the money at her third start, while both 3. Glitterscript, resuming behind a sound trial, and 13. Just Feelin’ Lucky first-up can add plenty of value into trifecta and first fours.
How to play it: Idolised to win.
Race 6: BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1000m)
Lightly raced 5. Cassiel returns as a gelding with a string of gear changes after missing last week’s abandoned Hawkesbury meeting. Powered home to win on debut at Wyong in March and has been primed for this with two city trials, bolting in the latest at Randwick, running a slick 33.16 secs for his final 600m.
Dangers: 9. Insist defied a betting drift to charge home and win here first-up. Resuming 11. Island Dec swept home from the back for an impressive debut win at this track in June, and behind a very easy trial, she can drift back and be saved for one final burst. Keep safe 4. Misty Legend, dropping in grade fourth-up, and at bigger odds 3. Elegant Empress.
How to play it: Cassiel to win.
Race 7: SUPER MAIDEN PLATE (1400m)
Improving and lightly three-year-old 4. Colophon is good value second-up over a furlong further in suitable conditions, especially with the early favourite and a couple of others all being preferred at Wednesday’s Rosehill meeting. Worked home nicely here when resuming off a four-month spell, and may find the best going at good odds drawn well out past the middle.
Dangers: 8. West Indies can produce a lot more on rain-affected ground after a plain debut at Hawkesbury three weeks back, and the stable went the other way scratching him from Rosehill to be saved for this. Gap to the rest headed by 17. Blacklist second-up.
How to play it: Colophon to win.
Race 8: MIDWAY BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1400m)
Widest betting race on the program is saved for last. Improving four-year-old 8. Trapeze Pleasure can improve enough to strike third-up at big odds. Has done his best work late in two runs back at Hawkesbury and on track to peak staying at the trip 26 days between runs.
Dangers: Progressive local 4. Invade And Conquer can give another big sight after leading all the way here to finally break through after being placed eight times in previous 11 starts. 1. Byron has been fair in two deeper metro runs this prep and will find this easier. 5. Fugitiva is well drawn and suited over a bit more ground third-up. Include home tracker 3. C’mon Mate fourth up and 6. Rolling Magic, who draws the fence third-up, in trifecta and first four plays.
How to play it: Trapeze Pleasure each way.
BEST BETS
Race 2: (1) Copacabana. Race 3: (9) Fiftyfivechevy
BEST VALUE
Race 6: (5) Cassiel
Supplied by Racing NSW
Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au