The Irish are coming: Michelle Payne’s guide to every horse in the Melbourne Cup

Melbourne Cup carnival ambassador Michelle Payne runs an expert eye over every runner in Tuesday’s great race...

Sea King, ridden by Declan Bates, on the way to winning the Bendigo Cup last week.Credit: Racing Photos

Vauban (FRA)

7yoG 55.5kg
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Jockey: William Buick
Barrier: 11
Career: 20: 8-5-2. Last start: Second of six, group 1 Irish St Leger (2816 metres)
Payne says: It’s very hard to overlook him. He was the hype horse last year, but didn’t perform to expectations. I think it could be a different story this time around. They have changed the training regime, they sound very bullish, and barrier 11 should be ideal. One of the horses to beat.

Buckaroo (GB)

6yoG 54.5kg
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Joao Moreira
Barrier: 21
Career: 22: 5-4-3. Last start: Second of 18, group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)
Payne says: He’s absolutely flying and was fantastic in the Caulfield Cup. He was shuffled a long way back due to the way the race unfolded, but he could not have been better to the line. He has a tricky barrier (21) for Joao Moreira to navigate, but I think he can. He looks a strong top-four chance.

Circle Of Fire (GB)

5yoH 54.5kg
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Barrier: 24
Career: 13: 3-1-3. Last start: 10th of 18, group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)
Payne says: Seems to have the ability going back on his Sydney Cup win, but it is just a matter of whether he is firing leading into a Melbourne Cup. He doesn’t look to be, and he has a tricky barrier to overcome as well.

Jockey Andrea Atzeni rode Circle Of Fire in the Sydney Cup at Randwick.Credit: Getty Images

Warp Speed (JPN)

6yoH 54.5kg
Trainer: Noboru Takagi
Jockey: Akira Sugawara
Barrier: 3
Career: 23: 4-3-4. Last start: 13th of 18, group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)
Payne says: He’s going to need a huge turnaround from the Caulfield Cup, but he has a good barrier (3) and they have obviously brought him down here from Japan for a reason. The firmer track will be to his liking. While he needs a big form turnaround, it is not impossible.

Kovalica (NZ)

5yoG 53.5kg
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Damian Lane
Barrier: 17
Career: 24: 6-2-4. Last start: Sixth of nine, group 1 Cox Plate (2040m)
Payne says: The question mark is whether he will stay the distance strongly. From the clock tower onwards you really find out if they stay the two miles strongly, and I have a big question mark on him.

Sharp ‘N’ Smart (NZ)

5yoG 53.5kg
Trainer: Graeme and Deborah Rogerson
Jockey: Michael Dee
Barrier: 15
Career: 22: 6-5-2. Last start: Third of 10, group 2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m)
Payne says: He was excellent in last year’s Victoria Derby. He is another year older, and he was great in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup, which is a good form race. A chance at long odds.

Just Fine (IRE)

7yoG 53kg
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott
Jockey: Jye McNeil
Barrier: 13
Career: 25: 7-1-2. Last start: 10th of 10, group 2 MV Gold Cup (2500m)
Payne says: Was disappointing last start, but seems to run well at Flemington. If he can bounce back to his effort two starts ago, he’ll be in it for a long way.

Land Legend (FRA)

5yoG 53kg
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Zac Purton
Barrier: 18
Career: 13: 3-2-1. Last start: Third of 18, group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)
Payne says: He is his own worst enemy. He pulled very hard in the Caulfield Cup, but still ran an excellent race for third. If Zac Purton can get him to relax, which will be hard from barrier 18, he is a chance. The key will be getting him to switch off and getting into a rhythm.

Steven Arnold gallops Land Legend at Caulfield last month.Credit: Getty Images

Absurde (FRA)

7yoG 52.5kg
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Barrier: 7
Career: 21: 6-6-2. Last start: First of seven, listed Chester Stakes (2916m)
Payne says: My top pick. I think he was excellent last year. He had to tow the rest of the field up to the leaders and hit the front early and held on really well for seventh. Different circumstances this year. Barrier seven, second time around, I think he is a great chance.

Jamie Kah’s Melboure Cup ride is Okita Soushi.Credit: Getty Images

Knight’s Choice

5yoG 51.5kg
Trainer: John Symons and Sheila Laxon
Jockey: Robbie Dolan
Barrier: 6
Career: 21: 5-3-2. Last start: 14th of 18, group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)
Payne says: He was a touch unlucky in the Bendigo Cup, but he might not have enough class for this race.

Okita Soushi (IRE)

7yoH 51kg
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Jamie Kah
Barrier: 10
Career: 18: 5-3-3. Last start: First of 10, group 2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m)
Payne says: A lovely horse. He gets into a rhythm and switches off, and will give himself every chance. He was excellent in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup lead-up. Jamie Kah is flying, Ciaron Maher knows how to win a Melbourne Cup, and he has a light weight of 51kg. Certainly a great chance from barrier 10.

Onesmoothoperator (US)

7yoG 51kg
Trainer: Brian Ellison
Jockey: Craig Williams
Barrier: 12
Career: 37: 5-11-5. Last start: First of 13, group 3 Geelong Cup (2400m)
Payne says: Excellent in the Geelong Cup, which can be a great lead-up race. It sounds as though Craig Williams is bullish about him, and barrier 12 is a nice gate for him. Definitely a leading chance.

Zardozi

4yoM 51kg
Trainer: James Cummings
Jockey: Andrea Atzeni
Barrier: 4
Career: 18: 6-3-1. Last start: Fourth of 18, group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)
Payne says: Excellent in the Caulfield Cup. It was interesting that she ran on Saturday, which is old school and something that Bart Cummings used to do a lot successfully. Drawn a good gate in barrier four and certainly a light-weight chance.

Sea King (GB)

6yoG 50kg
Trainer: Harry Eustace
Jockey: Hollie Doyle
Barrier: 1
Career: 18: 5-1-2. Last start: 1st of 15, group 3 Bendigo Cup (2400m)
Payne says: He was excellent in the Bendigo Cup, making a good long sustained run. I think Hollie Doyle looks like a great booking for him. She will have to navigate well from barrier one, but I think he is a very good chance for her.

Valiant King (GB)

5yoG 50.5kg
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Barrier: 22
Career: 11: 1-3-1. Last start: Ninth of 18, Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)
Payne says: I am not sure he is going well enough to turn it around for a Melbourne Cup.

Fancy Man (IRE)

7yoG 50kg
Trainer: Annabel Neasham and Rob Archibald
Jockey: Ron Stewart
Barrier: 19
Career: 27: 5-4-5. Last start: Sixth of 18, group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)
Payne says: I am not sure he has the class to win a Melbourne Cup. I’m not sure he is a strong enough stayer for the two miles.

Interpretation (IRE)

7yoG 50kg
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Teo Nugent
Barrier: 14
Career: 23: 4-2-2. Last start: Second of 13, Group 3 Geelong Cup (2400m)
Payne says: He has turned his form around. His lead-up run was really good in the Geelong Cup. He is not without a chance.

Trainer Chris Waller stands to have a number of runners in the Melbourne Cup.Credit: Getty Images

Manzoice

5yoG 50kg
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Declan Bates
Barrier: 8
Career: 21: 2-4-1. Last start: Seventh of 10, Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m)
Payne says: He is a horse with talent, being a VRC Derby winner. It is just whether he is running well enough heading into a Melbourne Cup.

Mostly Cloudy (IRE)

6yoG 50kg
Trainer: Trent Busuttin and Nat Young
Jockey: Karis Teetan
Barrier: 16
Career: 28: 6-4-4. Last start: 12th of 13, group 3 Bart Cummings (2500m)
Payne says: Needs to have a big turnaround of form for a Melbourne Cup. I am not sure he is going well enough.

Positivity (NZ)

4yoM 50kg
Trainer: Andrew Forsman
Jockey: Winona Costin
Barrier: 20
Career: 12: 4-2-0. Last start: Eighth of 10, Group 2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2400m)
Payne says: An interesting staying mare. There is a touch of class about her. It might be a year early, but she should not be overlooked. Barrier 20 does not help her, though.

Saint George (GB)

5yoH 50kg
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Tyler Schiller
Barrier: 9
Career: 10: 2-1-2. Last start: Fifth of 10, Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m)
Payne says: There is a little air of excitement about him, I think. There was a delay on whether they were going to accept to run. The fact they have suggests they are very happy with him. An interesting runner from barrier nine for Ciaron Maher.

The Map

6yoM 50kg
Trainer: Dan Clarken and Oopy MacGillivray
Jockey: Rachel King
Barrier: 23
Career: 32: 9-3-3. Last start: Sixth of 13, Group 3 Geelong Cup (2400m)
Payne says: Excellent in the Adelaide Cup over two miles, but I am not sure she is going well enough to win a Melbourne Cup. She was good in the Geelong Cup, but maybe not quite as good as you would like to see for a race like this.

Trust In You (NZ)

6yoG 50kg
Trainer: Bruce Wallace and Grant Cooksley
Jockey: Mark Du Plessis
Barrier: 5
Career: 30: 4-5-1. Last start: Fourth of 9 Group 3 St Leger, Randwick (2600m)
Payne says: You can never overlook the Kiwis bringing a horse over. But it might not be going well enough to turn the form around against some of these.

Michelle Payne’s top four:
1. Absurde
2. Vauban
3. Buckaroo
4. Okita Soushi

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