Premiership is there for the taking if Raiders can hold their nerve

No matter which way you cut it, the 2025 premiership is there for the Raiders.

There are two provisos – they need to hold their nerve and hope Penrith stay out of the top four.

It’s a non-negotiable that they continue to play the exciting way that has taken them to the top of the table. And keep it up all the way through September and the first Sunday of October.

There can be no bottling it and switching to traditional “finals-style” football when they get there. Otherwise, they’ll be ground out of it.

If this modern version of the Raiders are anything, they are the reincarnation of the golden-era team led by Mal Meninga, Ricky Stuart, Laurie Daley, Gary Belcher and Brad Clyde – and they have to keep playing with that late 1980s, early 1990s flair.

Sunday’s victory over the Knights showed the importance of sticking to their guns. A tied scoreline at the interval held the potential for a damaging home defeat. But the Raiders came out firing, ran in four tries and kept the visitors scoreless in the second period.

Tom Starling looks to spark another attack in the Raiders’ win over Newcastle yesterday.Credit: Getty Images

Let’s deal first with the Raiders’ three rivals in the top four – all of whom now have major question marks in the halves.

Jahrome Hughes, the reigning Dally M winner, will be out for about six weeks, possibly longer, with a dislocated shoulder suffered in Thursday’s brave shootout win over the Roosters. He has avoided surgery, but the injury is devastating for the Melbourne Storm, despite still having deep riches in the spine with Harry Grant, Cam Munster and Ryan Papenhuyzen.

The Warriors are without form halfback Luke Metcalf after he suffered an ACL injury. He’s out until mid-2026, and his absence showed in a poor loss to the lowly Titans at home on Saturday. Penrith are coming for their spot in the four.

Metcalf’s loss was a bitter blow as the Warriors looked like being real contenders this season after teasing everybody with a preliminary final appearance in 2023. They last made the grand final in 2011.

Noah Martin celebrates a try on Sunday.Credit: Getty Images

The Bulldogs are top-two bound but have taken the ultimate gamble with the mid-season signing of teenager Lachie Galvin, who has been asked to steer them to the premiership after unseating Toby Sexton as halfback.

As good as he may be now, or one day, that is a massive ask of an inexperienced 19-year-old No.7. It appears the Bulldogs think this year it might be all coming up a bit early for them, and with Galvin, they are investing in sustained success in future years.

The thing about future years is that there are no certainties. Brisbane had the 2023 grand final won until Nathan Cleary’s quarter-hour of magic gave Penrith another title. Fast-forward a year and the Broncos missed the finals, and Kevin Walters was gone.

Parramatta made the grand final in 2022. Poor results since then meant coach Brad Arthur was axed midway through season 2024. And here’s a list of players from their 17 that night – less than three years ago – who have departed: Clint Gutherson; Maika Sivo; Waqa Blake; Reagan Campbell-Gillard; Reed Mahoney; Shaun Lane; Isaiah Papali’i; Marate Niukore; Ryan Matterson; Nathan Brown; Jake Arthur and Oregon Kaufusi.

The Panthers are gathering a head of steam and loom as a main danger to the Raiders.Credit: Getty Images

Add Dylan Brown, who is leaving at the end of the season and is now being left out of the side.

They are now light years from the finals, let alone a grand final or a premiership.

Some windows of opportunity are tiny. Minuscule even. History is littered with teams that made the grand final only to fall away in following years.

Premierships are hard to win, and when you have even the slightest sniff, you have to take it – right here, right now.

Just below the top four is where the real danger lurks for Canberra.

That’s where you find the resurgent Panthers, just three premiership points adrift of the Warriors and with their old guard of Cleary, Isaah Yeo, Dylan Edwards and Brian To’o fit and in form. Look out. They’ve won seven games straight. Their premiership window has been open so long now that it seems like an endless summer.

The Broncos are two wins behind fourth, but Friday night’s loss to the Eels exposed them.

Their secret in a five-match winning streak before Friday was the re-emergence of Reece Walsh, who resembled his 2023-like self after a woeful start to the year in which he averaged about 70 run metres a match over the first half-dozen rounds and routinely sent passes flying over the sideline or into the dirt.

Against Parramatta, that early season Walsh made an unwelcome return, complete with passes over the sideline and the sideways running. He let a bomb bounce and conceded a try. There was one flash of brilliance for a Billy Walters try, but a team can’t win a title when their fullback is headless.

What coach Ricky Stuart and the front office led by Don Furner have done at Canberra is to be admired.

To build a team with a mix of hardheads such as Joe Tapine and Josh Papali’i, mid-career weapons in Hudson Young, Tom Starling and Corey Horsburgh, and exciting youngsters Kaeo Weekes, Ethan Strange and Xavier Savage is Moneyball-type stuff.

Stuart has been around a long time. He was in the thick of it as a player when the Raiders struck gold, and he took them agonisingly close in 2019 when they lost the grand final to the Roosters.

He knows better than most the window can close as quickly as it opens.

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