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NRL grand final preview: Are the three-time premiers the underdogs?

By Billie Eder

Jarome Luai, Ryan Papenhuyzen, Nathan Cleary and Jahrome Hughes are some of the key players this NRL grand final.

Jarome Luai, Ryan Papenhuyzen, Nathan Cleary and Jahrome Hughes are some of the key players this NRL grand final.Credit: Graphic: Aresna Villanueva

The last time Penrith lost an NRL finals match was against the Rabbitohs in week one of the 2021 finals. Since then, they’ve been unstoppable.

The last time they lost a grand final was to Melbourne in 2020.

In 2024, we get a rematch four years in the making, when the Storm and Panthers go head-to-head for the premiership at Accor Stadium on October 6.

The setting is a little different from the Covid-affected decider back in 2020, when the crowd capacity was at 50 per cent and the Panthers were hunting their first premiership since 2003.

Fast-forward four years and Penrith have pulled-off a historic three-peat – the first team to do it since Parramatta in 1981, 1982 and 1983 – and are looking to become the first team to win more than three in a row since the great St George team that won 11 straight from 1956 to 1966.

History

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Let’s cast our minds back to that 2020 grand final.

Despite a second-half surge from the Panthers, after Jarome Hughes and Brandon Smith were sent to the sin-bin, Melbourne’s faultless first half saw them lift the trophy at the end of what was Cameron Smith’s final game for the club.

Ryan Papenhuyzen, Cameron Munster, Nelson Asofa-Solomona and Hughes are some of the premiership-winners from that team who are still with the Storm in 2024, while Nathan Cleary, Jarome Luai and Dylan Edwards are among Penrith’s constants.

Penrith aren’t the same team they were four years ago. Now, they’re a well-oiled machine who not only know how to win, but more importantly, how to win the big moments.

Just look at last year’s grand final, when the reigning premiers were 18 points down with 24 minutes to go yet managed to find a way to victory.

The front and back page of the Sydney Morning Herald on October 2, 2023 after the Panthers won their historic third-straight grand final.

The front and back page of the Sydney Morning Herald on October 2, 2023 after the Panthers won their historic third-straight grand final.Credit: Sydney Morning Herald

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Melbourne and Penrith have met twice already this year, with the Storm getting the better of the Panthers on both occasions.

But if you look at their record across the past four years, since that 2020 grand final, Penrith have the upper hand, with six wins to Melbourne’s four – including two week-three finals victories in 2021 and 2023.

What the coaches had to say

Panthers coach Ivan Cleary said his team learnt a lot from that 2020 defeat.

Following that match, Cleary told this masthead he was “confident I can be a part of a premiership team one day”, and that has certainly transpired.

After their victory against the Sharks on Saturday night, Cleary reflected on the match all those years ago when they lost to Melbourne.

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“We definitely learnt a fair bit that night,” Cleary said. “A little bit off Melbourne, a little bit just the occasion and the week and everything. I think it’s a pretty good match-up. I think they will go in as favourites, and rightfully so ... they’ve beaten us twice this year.

“It’s so exciting. I think we have probably been the best two teams this year, but they are definitely going to be more than a handful, but that’s what you expect on grand final day.”

Harry Grant and Ryan Papenhuyzen embrace during the preliminary final.

Harry Grant and Ryan Papenhuyzen embrace during the preliminary final.Credit: Getty Images

Melbourne skipper Harry Grant didn’t yet know who his grand final opponent would be when speaking on Friday night, but said Penrith had been the team to beat the past four years.

“It goes to show, Penrith are such a class side,” Grant said. “Won the last three premierships, and they’re very disciplined with the way they play.”

Suspension and injury report

Nathan Cleary insists a shoulder knock won’t threaten his participation in the grand final, after re-aggravating a left shoulder injury he suffered six weeks ago.

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Cleary came from the field five minutes and 51 seconds shy of half-time in Penrith’s preliminary final against Cronulla, but fronted the media in the post-match press conference to calm the nerves of Panthers fans.

“It’s all good,” Nathan Cleary said. “I got a little knock at the end, but I played out the next two sets and felt fine. It’s sweet.”

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For Melbourne, Grant was carrying a calf niggle and Hughes a neck problem, but Bellamy was coy about any injury concerns.

“They [Grant and Hughes] were struggling at half-time, and we had a decent lead at half-time, but it was way too early to pack the tent up ... for these two guys to basically play out the game ... they’re tough bastards.”

Hughes was a little more forthcoming with information, but said he wasn’t concerned about his calf.

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“It didn’t faze [me] ... there’s no incident or grade awareness, so they [the physios] were happy for me to roll on, and this time of the year it’s what you’ve got to do.”

However, Melbourne enforcer Nelson Asofa-Solomona has been hit with a monster four-match ban and is almost certain to miss the grand final for a grade-three careless high tackle charge against the Roosters.

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Asofa-Solomona was sent to the bin just 18 seconds into the preliminary final for his shot on Roosters prop Lindsay Collins, which ruled Collins out of the game with concussion.

Even if the Storm successfully argue a downgrade at the NRL judiciary, Asofa-Solomona would still face a three-match ban. Melbourne would need to get the charge cut to a grade one – a double downgrade – for the giant front-rower to play in the decider, which is unheard of.

Early tips

Watch the 2024 NRL grand final Live and Free on Channel 9 & 9Now

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Original URL: https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/nrl-grand-final-preview-are-the-three-time-premiers-the-underdogs-20240926-p5kdp3.html