Can’t win the NRL title outside the top four? If it’s ever going to happen, Manly is the team

To win an NRL title, it takes so much hard work and sacrifice from everyone involved in a club – but you also need luck. And on that score, the Roosters have run out of it.

I couldn’t believe what I was watching on Sunday when Sam Walker and Brandon Smith both went down with serious knee injuries, later diagnosed as ACL tears, and Victor Radley succumbed to a fractured shoulder.

They have no chance of winning the competition now, and I would even argue they’re a chance of bombing out of the finals in straight sets.

That might sound harsh, but I’m just not sure how the Roosters will attack now they’ve lost the flair of Walker, the ball playing skills of Radley and Smith’s running game. That’s no fault of their own, injuries can happen at any time. Unfortunately for them, they’ve copped rotten luck when they least needed it.

They will want to make a statement against South Sydney on Friday night, and I can see them getting the two points … just. But I’m not expecting them to mount a serious title charge with their injury list.

So, what about the other premiership threats? There are just so many questions about the teams in the top four at the moment.

Sam Walker is helped off the field after suffering a ruptured ACL against Canberra.Credit: NRL Photos

In the past three weeks, Penrith have looked a little bit flat. I suspect they’re the only top four-team capable of beating the Storm. But if Nathan Cleary can’t stay on the field in the finals, then I’m writing off their chances too.

The Sharks? The jury is still out on whether they’re capable of winning the big games. When it comes to clinching the title, I can’t have them.

History will show you have to be in the top four to win a competition, but maybe this is the year when the trend is bucked. Outside the Storm – who are benefiting from Cameron Munster missing the State of Origin series – the other top-four teams all have major frailties heading into the finals.

That takes me to Manly.

I will preface this by saying they need Tom Trbojevic back on the field. If he can return in week one of the finals and manage the pain in his shoulder, they can do some serious damage in September. They have the big-game players in Trbojevic and Daly Cherry-Evans, and they look like they have another gear.

As it stands, I think all roads lead to a Storm-Panthers grand final. But if there’s one team to upset the apple cart, watch out for the Sea Eagles.

Foundation Dolphin’s divided loyalties

In their short history, there’s no doubt the Dolphins haven’t played a bigger game than the top-eight shoot-out against the Knights at Newcastle on Sunday.

But on the flip side, how do the Knights handle the pressure of playing in front of a sold-out crowd with their season on the line?

There’s an interesting subplot to this game which few people have been talking about and doesn’t involve any of the 34 players on the field: Newcastle’s new recruitment manager Peter O’Sullivan.

Along with Wayne Bennett, he helped build the Dolphins’ foundation roster and spent almost two seasons at the club before leaving mid-way through this year. He would know their players inside out.

Does he tip Adam O’Brien and the Knights how to undo the Dolphins? You would love to be a fly on the wall if he does. And his son, Sean, is lining up at halfback for the Dolphins. How torn is he going to be?

Regardless, the result will be decided by those between the white lines and no one will have a bigger influence than Kalyn Ponga. He can just do things which other players can’t. I watched him jump in at first receiver a couple of times last week, and even his teammates weren’t quick enough to react what he was trying to do. He’s got one more game to carry this team on his back to get them to the finals.

Knights players celebrate a try with star fullback Kalyn Ponga.Credit: Getty Images

But most of all, I’m looking forward to the battles in the centres. Dane Gagai will match up on Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Bradman Best marks Herbie Farnworth. Strength and power from Newcastle against raw speed of the Dolphins.

Joey’s tip: Knights by 4
First try-scorer: Bradman Best
Man of the match: Kalyn Ponga

Sin-bin shake-up

The NRL is absolutely flying this season: record crowds, television ratings are up and we’ve seen a stack of highly entertaining games in a real attacking era for the code. From the NRL down to the clubs and everyone involved, congratulations on where the game is at the moment.

Now, there’s only one thing that has really irked me in the past month: the bunker and its use of the sin bin. We have to find a realignment and reduce the number of sin-binnings.

It might be too simplistic, but I reckon there’s a guideline we can start using for what warrants 10 minutes on the sidelines and what doesn’t when it comes to high contact: if a player contacts an opponent’s head from the elbow down then I’ve got no issues with the sin-bin being used.

But it’s the severe punishment for the shoulder to the head which I’m struggling to comprehend. Sometimes, it’s impossible for a defender to avoid the contact when a ball carrier drops suddenly into a tackle.

I’ll give you an example. Cameron Murray is one of the best middle forwards we have in the game, and he runs with a low centre of gravity. Just before the defensive line, he’ll try to use his footwork to get between defenders.

When that happens, in a split second he lowers his body even further. He wants to get to the ground as quickly as possible in a tackle and try to generate a quick play-the-ball.

Now, a defender’s target zone can change dramatically and instantly when a ball runner lowers their height. And defenders are inadvertently making high contact as a result, when it’s almost impossible to pull out of the tackle.

I’ve counted three games in the past month when the referees have had a major impact on the result – Sharks v Knights, Tigers v Sea Eagles and Sharks v Warriors – and the trend has to stop.

Let’s see the players decide the results of these finals matches.

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