By Dan Walsh
Three weeks before colliding in the 2013 grand final, Manly and the Roosters played out the lowest scoring final of the past 42 years – and a criminally underrated epic at that.
A 4-0 Tricolours win, secured in the 10th minute via a Roger Tuivasa-Sheck try, belied exquisite attack that was only shut down by desperate defence from both sides.
At least one element of that contest endures on Saturday night. Anthony Seibold’s offence is the most expansive in the game, after all, and the Roosters’ 30.8 points per game is the highest average total over a season since Dave Brown – the Bradman of rugby league – rewrote the record books in 1935.
Whoever sorts themselves out without the ball almost certainly stays alive in 2024, as the Sea Eagles’ passing and pace goes up against the Roosters power game.
Only Penrith pass the ball more often than Manly (247 per game). And no team shifts left (16.4 times per game) and right (15.04) as often as Manly, simply because the Sea Eagles have more compelling reasons than most to do so.
Even with Jason Saab sidelined, their back five – featuring sprint specimens Tolu Koula and Reuben Garrick plus the dynamic ball-running of Tom Trbojevic – explains their eagerness to go wide early and often.
Or when they need some special sauce, like their last-tackle match-winner from inside their own 30 metres against Canterbury.
Key to setting loose Manly’s backline, though, are the big men in-field. Their revival against the Bulldogs came on the back of Taniela Paseka and Matt Lodge returning from the bench when Daly Cherry-Evans sliced through from a mesmerising scrum play.
The veteran No.7’s game management, running into a howling southerly, was superb, but it also came on the back of Paseka (eight runs for 75 metres) and Lodge (10 runs for 74 metres) dominating the final 20 minutes.
It makes for a particularly fascinating watch given the Roosters are at their best going straight down main street.
Their 11.4 offloads a game, led by Angus Crichton (52) and Terrell May (36), are most effective when the Roosters roll tight around the ruck, repeatedly.
The prosepect of James Tedesco and Joey Manu using their foot speed and size (both still tip the scales at more than 100 kilos) from a forward’s quick play-the-ball is a defensive nightmare.
The Roosters might score only 14 per cent of their tries down the centre channel, but it’s still where they do their best work.
Their 56.6 support runs per game are the highest in the NRL for a reason, and their 219 passes (15th) point to the power game of a front-row rotation featuring Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, Lindsay Collins, Spencer Leniu and May.
Luke Keary and Angus Crichton’s defensive combination was picked apart by Penrith.Credit: Getty Images
Early errors against Penrith and a lagging line speed left the Roosters with a 30% share of the ball and 22-0 deficit after as many minutes last week.
Anything like that defensive apprehension will invite man mountain Haumole Olakau’atu to target Luke Keary. The NSW Origin back-rower did exactly that in Manly’s round two win, and Panthers star Liam Martin ran like a man possessed last week too, more often than not straight into the Roosters veteran.
Victor Radley’s return just three weeks after fracturing his scapula also offers an obvious spot target for the Sea Eagles - it’s much harder to hide a back-rower in defence than a halfback like Cooper Cronk in the 2018 decider.
Manly themselves are rickety on the edges too, though, with their left-side channel conceding 42 tries (12th in the NRL) this season.
Reuben Garrick and Lehi Hopoate are a new combination opposite Manu and Dominic Young, while Cherry-Evans has a habit of shooting out of the line and disrupting the right-edge when an opposition attacks from halfway.
As was the case in 2013, match-ups like Tedesco v Trbojevic, Manu v Koula, Waerea-Hargreaves v Lodge and Crichton v Olakau’atu get the mouth-watering long before kick-off.
The attack from both sides suggests we’re in for feast rather than famine this time around.
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