As a NSW fan, Kalyn Ponga terrifies me – but he can be a double-edged sword

State of Origin is about handling the pressure and expectation which comes with being on rugby league’s biggest stage – and there’s no doubt all the pressure before the decider is on Queensland.

All the talk in the build-up has been about the Maroons. Has Billy Slater made the right changes? Can they somehow bounce back from being bullied in the first half in Melbourne? Will Harry Grant be fit enough to be anywhere near his best with that sternum problem?

But perhaps the most intriguing one for me is: how do they get Kalyn Ponga into the game, and what impact will he have off the bench?

My thoughts on Ponga are clear: he’s a generational talent whose best position is fullback. Barring an injury to Reece Walsh, he won’t be at fullback on Wednesday night.

So, what does Slater do with him after just one NRL game back from a serious foot injury? I suspect he’s going to play a role in the middle of the park for the Maroons, which terrifies and excites me in equal measure from a NSW point of view.

On the one hand, he will be an absolute menace against tiring and flat-footed Blues forwards if that’s how he’s injected into the game. They can’t clock off for a moment. Ponga will expose them.

Queensland star Kalyn Ponga.Credit: Getty Images

But if I’m Michael Maguire, I’m licking my lips at the prospect of seeing him defending in the washing machine, where middle forwards cycle up and down and have to get through their tackles. If he’s making two or three tackles a set, will he still have the zing in attack? I don’t know.

Regardless, the Blues just have to get their start right at Suncorp Stadium. There’s only been two NSW wins in deciders played in Brisbane, it’s such a hard feat for any Blues side to achieve. But when it does happen, it’s just so special. I’d rate it up there with winning a premiership.

For the inexperienced NSW players, the test is to not be overawed. You can be told by past players and others who have been there as much as they like, but until you run out onto the field, you won’t know what it’s like for the atmosphere to just hit you straight between the eyes. It’s like a sonic boom.

This game will be entirely different to Melbourne. NSW must be prepared not to get any 50-50 refereeing decisions. I’ve seen whistleblowers get intimidated before up there, and that’s understandable. They’re only human. As long as the Blues are ready for the rub of the green to go the other way, then they’ll be fine.

The first 10 to 15 minutes is absolutely everything for Maguire and his team. They have to take the crowd out of it as quickly as possible. When Suncorp is quiet, you know you’re going well. But a good start, largely on the back of Mitchell Moses’ boot, is so crucial because I think the Blues have got the bench weapons to upset the Maroons in the period before and after half-time.

Spencer Leniu has been a revelation this series and the Maroons just can’t seem to handle his power. I feel sorry for Haumole Olakau’atu losing his spot for game three, but the selection of Mitch Barnett makes so much sense with back-rowers Liam Martin and Angus Crichton playing big minutes. Barnett has Origin qualities and I expect him to be colossal in the middle of the field. Connor Watson can jump on the back of Leniu and Barnett’s work and cause havoc.

And when the Blues do get a roll on, I’m expecting their biggest threats to be down their left, peppering the side with Daly Cherry-Evans, Dane Gagai and Valentine Holmes. It looks vulnerable with Jeremiah Nanai alongside them. The clash between Newcastle teammates Bradman Best and Gagai could go a long way to deciding the winner.

Moses’ kicking game needs to go up a gear when the Blues have their good spells, and from that, they can ram home the advantage.

Queensland? It all comes down to Cherry-Evans. If they’re to win, he has to have a nine-out-of-10 performance. He’s done it before, and will be stinging to make up for a game two effort in which he was exposed.

I’m expecting the Maroons to do a lot more attacking from dummy-half through Ben Hunt and Grant. They have to keep the ball in play for long periods of time and use their lighter and mobile forward pack to advantage. Move the Blues forwards around, get them reaching for their oxygen reserves. If it turns into a stop-start power game, they can’t match NSW’s edges with Liam Martin and Angus Crichton both in superb form.

History says NSW won’t be winning, and maybe we’ve seen this movie so many times before.

But now it’s time for the Blues to write their own story.

Joey’s tip: NSW by 10
First try-scorer: Brian To’o
Man of the match: MItchell Moses

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