Warner has lost control of his destiny and there’s no obvious replacement

Delhi: Watching from the commentary box as David Warner struggled through an innings that left him with a fractured elbow and a concussion on day one of the Delhi Test, Mark Waugh might have had room for some empathy.

Waugh’s case, two decades ago, bears close resemblance to Warner’s virtually untenable hold on a place in Australia’s Test team once he recovers.

David Warner receives medical treatment during his Delhi innings.Credit: Getty Images

Having chosen not to call his own exit from the side and instead rolling the dice of performance to see how long he might continue, Waugh was dropped on the eve of the 2002-03 Ashes series, and announced his retirement the following day.

Back then, Waugh was still a highly gifted member of a successful Australian side, but his returns had trended down for some time, ultimately forcing the hand of a selection panel then led by Trevor Hohns.

Current selection chair George Bailey served briefly on a panel chaired by Hohns in 2020, before taking on the senior role the following year.

Alongside head coach Andrew McDonald and selector Tony Dodemaide, Bailey has faced the spotlight in the past couple of weeks around selections and preparation for a Test tour of India that began with high expectations but turned disastrous in the space of two frantic matches in Nagpur and Delhi.

While Warner is not facing the same pressure for his spot from domestic players as Waugh was, his downturn to only sporadic instances of his best is similarly pronounced. In each case, selectors wished to persevere because of the match-winning qualities they saw to outweigh bread and butter performance game after game.

For Waugh, that meant carrying several years where he averages scarcely better than 30 in Tests, before his 2002 returns of 268 runs at 26.80 simply became too slim to ignore with others pressing.

For Warner, an average of 29.48 from 19 Test matches dating back to the start of 2021 is compounded by the fact that in those matches he has scored his runs at a strike rate of around 59, as opposed to his career mark of 71. Putting pressure on the bowlers is becoming more difficult for him.

Mohammed Shami after removing David Warner.Credit: Getty Images

In time, Warner’s 200 against South Africa at the MCG in his 100th Test may be seen as the last great innings of a bold career; the final time “the Bull” was able to set the agenda against the new ball and carry on to a match-winning score.

And the issue is complicated further by the fact that Australia’s next assignment is one where Warner has a significant record of underperformance to overturn: his 2019 Ashes in England being perhaps the grimmest single batting chapter of his career.

The selector on duty, Dodemaide, sidestepped the question of Warner’s Test spot for the Ashes: “We’ll address the Ashes planning, as and when. That’s not a question we’ve addressed so far. We are very keen to get something out of this remaining [India] series.”

More broadly, Warner’s deficiencies away from home are part of the reason why, in an era of many tremendous individual performances, Australia have never quite put things all together to be regarded as a genuinely great side. Only six of Warner’s 25 centuries were made away from home.

There will, of course, be debate about whether Warner, at 36, has others worthy of replacing him. Waugh’s spot was taken by Darren Lehmann, whereas the likes of Matt Renshaw, Cameron Bancroft and Henry Hunt look decidedly modest by comparison.

But the other facet of the Warner conundrum is similar to the most telling reason why Waugh was ultimately moved on. While nowhere near as storied as Waugh’s team - certainly not after the results of the past two Test matches - the 2023 Australian side has a lot of senior players of similar ages who cannot be allowed to bow out all at once.

Interestingly, Steve Waugh was also subject to plenty of speculation about his performance at the same time as Mark, only to summon a century each time he needed to in order to retain his place and captaincy.

The legendary Steve Waugh “perfect day” century at the SCG in January 2003 marked a change in the balance of power between players and selectors, as the panel was no longer able to shape the side as easily by fireside chats to encourage orderly retirements. Cue Damien Martyn, Shane Warne, Glenn McGrath and Justin Langer all quitting in the same series a few years later.

At least in Warner’s case, there is certainty that his place in the Australian team’s white ball plans remains secure. He will be an integral part of the teams for World Cups in India this year (ODI) and the United States (T20) in 2024.

But, like Mark Waugh, Warner must now be coming to terms with the fact that he may not get the picturesque SCG Test farewell enjoyed by others.

As Waugh put it himself in 2002: “I suppose it would have been nice to finish at the SCG in front of my home crowd but there are not many fairy tales in sport.”

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