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How will Bazball go under lights at the Gabba? We’ve run the numbers

By Andrew Wu

The Story Bridge Climb, Stradbroke Island and even a musical version of the Christmas favourite Home Alone. These are some of the things cricket fans can do in Brisbane over the weekend.

For those travelling to watch the second Test, starting Thursday, a plan B would be prudent because all signs point to another turbocharged Test at the Gabba, the scene of a two-day Test just three years ago.

England have said they will not deviate from “Bazball”. If anything, they are doubling down. Historically, the pitch at the Gabba is just as fast and bouncy as at Optus Stadium. Throw in a pink ball that swings and seams more, and it’s a recipe for another high-octane game.

Travis Head and his boisterous fans in Perth.

Travis Head and his boisterous fans in Perth.Credit: Getty Images

The unveiling of “Bazball” in Australian conditions was spectacular: the first two-day Ashes Test in 104 years; the shortest Test in Ashes history (in terms of balls bowled) since 1888 and the second-shortest Test on these shores since the 656-ball Melbourne Test in 1932 when Bill Woodfull’s Australians made 153 and beat South Africa by an innings.

The frenetic manner in which England lost, just hours after being in a dominant position, means the fallout has been laced with hysteria.

For years, this England side has asked their critics to wait until after the Ashes to judge their revolutionary methods. If they go 2-0 down at the Gabba, the day of reckoning will be almost upon them. The stakes could hardly be higher.

Will England change?

The kangaroo and emu on the Australian coat of arms that sits on the baggy green are animals that cannot move backwards. They symbolise a nation moving forward. Similarly, in the Bazball world, there is never a backward step taken.

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Minutes after England’s harrowing defeat in Perth, coach Brendon “Baz” McCullum told the BBC his team had work to do “but one thing we won’t be changing is our blueprint”.

A Bazballer until the end of the 2023 Ashes, England great Stuart Broad is no stranger to McCullum’s approach. He expects them to become even more aggressive.

“I know the words that will be used in the dressing room will be commitment, committing to the plan and being tactically aware of what shots you can and can’t play,” Broad, a commentator for Seven, told this masthead.

“Going into the pink-ball Test, the tactical awareness of the time of day will be important. The twilight comes and there’s a new ball, that’s a difficult time to play expansive drives.

“Brendon McCullum will be wanting his guys to be a bit more aware of the game situation and not just think, ‘I’m going to go play my way’.”

That approach is in line with the “Bazball with brains” method former England captain Michael Vaughan believes can be successful anywhere. But there were few signs of brainpower in the way they played in Perth.

Former England bowler Stuart Broad.

Former England bowler Stuart Broad.Credit: Getty Images

It raises the question: can England’s batters, hardwired to play this way since May 2022, change habits ingrained over several years in a matter of days?

“That’s the art of Test match cricket,” Broad said. “Ultimately, wherever you go around the world you are playing on different pitches all the time. Week-by-week, you have to adapt your game and change your style. That will be the conversation.

“Crucially, you don’t want to be telling your brain, ‘Don’t do this’. You need to be telling your brain, ‘Do this in this sort of way’. If you tell yourself, ‘Don’t drive the ball, don’t drive the ball’, then you’ll drive the ball, just with no commitment.

“If you say to yourself, ‘It’s on that line, leave well, leave strongly and attack the shorter ball’, that’s a positive frame you can flip your mind into.”

Why they need to change

England’s cricketers have flown some 3600 kilometres from Perth to the Gabba to find a pitch that, historically, behaves the same as the deck they left behind out west.

According to data tabled by CricViz over the past 10 years, the Gabba provides just as much bounce as Perth Stadium. A ball pitched in the range of five to six metres will pass the stumps in Perth at an average height of 69 centimetres, just one centimetre above Brisbane.

Pause for thought: Ben Stokes during an England nets session in Brisbane on Saturday.

Pause for thought: Ben Stokes during an England nets session in Brisbane on Saturday.Credit: Getty Images

Balls that pitch beyond six metres will fly above the stumps (which, with the bails on top, have a highest mark of 72.37 centimetres). Batters can leave on length more comfortably at the Gabba than most venues – but shouldering arms is not what “Bazball” is about.

In England’s disastrous, game-changing second innings, they left just 12.5 per cent of deliveries – the equivalent of one in eight, or three every four overs. Even during Travis Head’s fireworks show, Australia left 17.8 per cent of balls.

Former Australia captain turned commentator Mark Taylor, who led his country to three Ashes victories in the 1990s, is an admirer of England’s aggressive approach – to a point. While the margin flattered Australia in Perth, Taylor said, England need to change, though not drastically.

“There’s an aggressive way and a reckless way,” Taylor said.

“At times, they drift too much into recklessness, rather than being upbeat. I still think as a Test cricketer you have to take into consideration the conditions you’re playing in, as England did so well when they started this upbeat way of playing.

“If they’re going to put out concrete roads and the ball won’t bounce much above hip height, you can hit through the line, throw your hands at it, pick Twenty20 players and away you go.

“When you get to Perth Stadium, like last week, it’s very difficult to play that same way. You have to make some form of adjustment. That doesn’t mean you go into your shell, but you need to consider the pace, bounce of the pitch and the new ball.”

The pink-ball king and the Boland factor

Mitchell Starc has taken almost twice as many wickets with the pink ball than any other player. Over his career, the left-arm pace great has relied heavily on swing for success, but it was the use of the wobble seam delivery that led to his Ashes-best haul of 10 wickets in Perth.

It came despite what Starc told The Fast Bowling Cartel podcast was the “shocking” ball selected by Scott Boland and Andrew McDonald in the first innings. Swing king Damien Fleming, who co-hosts the pod with fast bowling greats Glenn McGrath and Jason Gillespie, said that ball had produced the “least amount of swing ever seen in Perth”.

This bodes well for Starc. The pink ball (less than 15 overs old) on average swings more than it does in Brisbane compared to Adelaide, where most day/night Tests are held in Australia. In Brisbane, the difference in swing from the pink ball to the red is most pronounced when it is new.

If England’s top order cannot see out 15 overs, they risk exposing Joe Root to Starc’s favourite delivery: the one that swings back late into the right-hander.

A full length, of three to six metres, has the highest dismissal rate of a wicket every 38.5 balls (and an average of 77 wickets at 32). This is Starc’s zone.

Boland was the game changer in Perth, and stands to have a similar impact in Brisbane. The most successful length for seamers in the past 10 years at the Gabba is six to eight metres with 89 wickets at 19.79. This is Boland’s favourite area.

Hit for 62 runs from 10 overs in the first innings, Boland pulled his length back in the second innings in Perth after over-pitching on the first day when the team plan was to bowl fuller.

“There was a little bit more movement in our second innings as well with the ball,” McDonald said.

“I don’t know whether that showed up in the numbers that you guys were getting, but there was a little bit more swing for us.

“And Scotty was able to obviously show that accuracy that he has over a period of time. Got that extra bounce, and it became a little bit a bit more challenging in that channel at that seven-, eight metre-length, which is really his natural length.”

Ominously for England, the range of seven to eight metres is where the bounce is the steepest at the Gabba. Alex Carey and the slips cordon will be waiting keenly.

Why Bazball hurts England’s bowlers

England’s plan with the bat is diluting their strength: their speed demons.

It’s arguable if the old enemy have brought over a pace battalion as fearsome since Bodyline.

Taylor was reminded of the frightening West Indies attacks of the 1980s and ’90s as he watched Steve Smith and Marnus Labuschagne wear blows to the body while they struggled to score on day one.

“You got yourself through half an hour period, then another two quicks would come on and you think, ‘How am I going to score?’” said Taylor, who made his Test debut against a pace attack of Malcolm Marshall, Curtly Ambrose and Courtney Walsh.

England’s high-risk strokeplay leads too often to clumps of wickets falling, and their fast bowlers do not get the rest needed to maintain their express speed.

The visitors’ average pace on day one was 141km/h, the fastest recorded by CricViz since this stat was first measured in 2006. Mark Wood and Jofra Archer both broke through 150km/h.

Asked to back up the next day, England’s average pace dropped from 140km/h in the first innings to 136.2 km/h in the run chase. Archer, who went more than four years between Tests and plays little first-class cricket, was down almost 6km/h from an average of 143.84km/h to 137.93km/h. England’s slowdown did not surprise McDonald. By comparison, Australia’s quicks lost just 1.3km/h between innings.

“If they keep batting for 60 overs or less, they’re not giving Wood and Archer, guys who are carrying niggles, the chance to recover either,” Taylor said. “They didn’t look anywhere as fearsome in the second innings compared to the first.”

Though careful not to point the finger at his post-game press conference, Stokes begrudgingly accepted his attack needs more time to recover.

“Bat for longer is a pretty easy thing to say, a lot harder to do. Every bowler would love a bit more rest, but yeah,” Stokes said.

Wood is now a likely omission from England’s XI for the second Test, having succumbed to another issue with his troublesome left knee.

Cracks are showing

Already, there is tension between England’s current and former players. The older cohort strongly disagree with the methods of McCullum and Stokes. Former captains Vaughan, Ian Botham, Alastair Cook and Nasser Hussain have all been critical.

Then there are the touring fans, who have spent thousands travelling to the other side of the world only to be embarrassed, and the diehards at home braving the cold to watch through bleary eyes in the early hours of the morning.

Losing has consequences, but worrying about consequences is the antithesis to the “Bazball” way of playing without a fear of failure.

“Brendon’s philosophy is about making those players walk on to the cricket field feeling as tall as they possibly can to be able to perform,” Broad said.

That’s exactly what Travis Head did. He walked on that field with a genuine belief he could influence the game and ‘Baz’ will drill that into the team in the next 10 days.

“I think this break suits England more than Australia. I think Australia would have wanted to play again tomorrow. I think this break allows Brendon to make sure everyone is committed to their mindset and their game plan – but the pressure will be on them.”

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Original URL: https://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/pink-balls-bouncy-tracks-and-bazball-the-numbers-pointing-to-another-turbocharged-test-at-the-gabba-20251127-p5nj3c.html