By Katie Bice
Season 2024 continues to confound. With a month to go until finals our flag favourite is faltering, the top four is far from settled and a new threat is emerging.
The Western Bulldogs made everyone sit up and take notice with an emphatic display against Sydney that jumped them into the top eight for the first time since round six.
Marcus Bontempelli’s Bulldogs are firing.Credit: AFL Photos via Getty Images
Captain Marcus Bontempelli is leading a band of followers all firing at the right end of the season, with Adam Treloar grabbing 40 possessions on the weekend and putting himself in the frame for All-Australian.
Greater Western Sydney, a consistent Brisbane outfit and Fremantle join the Bulldogs as the in form teams up the top.
The interest around the Swans is that they are likely to still finish as minor premiers, but without a reversal in fortune risk heading into a finals campaign as an underwhelming flag prospect.
Carlton needs to fire up, with their double chance on the line in the games to come, but a manageable run home.
Essendon, Melbourne and Collingwood are all on their last chance and may have a line through them by this time next week.
So can your team make the finals? We analyse the run home for each of the contenders.
Sydney
The verdict: Five weeks ago Sydney trounced Greater Western Sydney and looked like they were swanning away with the premiership cup. The losses that immediately followed to Fremantle and St Kilda were by a total of three points and could be explained away by their mounting injury toll. But suddenly, they look wobbly.
They aren’t going to drop out of the top-two but no longer have that unbeatable air about them. They’ve resorted to bombing the ball high into their forward 50 which allowed the Western Bulldogs back line to make a mess of them on the weekend. They need to regroup but a fairly easy run home could have them back in form by finals time.
Brisbane
The verdict: On an eight-game winning streak the Lions are looking ominous and with a run home that includes three teams outside the top eight it’s almost time to lock them in as finishing in second spot.
Dayne Zorko and Lachie Neale have dragged their side from 13th place after round 15 to eight straight wins. One of three teams currently sitting in the final eight who you can say are genuinely in form.
Fremantle
The verdict: Justin Longmuir’s team are slick, showing a willingness to tear through the centre of the ground on a chain of handballs.
There’s a real chance they’ll claim a top four finish and the double chance, especially if Carlton continue to struggle, with their next clash against a down-and-out Essendon followed by Geelong at home. They are set to be a force to be reckoned with during September in the west.
Carlton
The verdict: The Blues are on the slide and need to finish their home-and-away campaign strongly have a convincing claim as flag contenders, as they seemed to be earlier in the year. Coach Michael Voss lamented his side’s lack of energy on Friday night, but there will be no more excuses in their next clash with arch rivals Collingwood.
The must-watch over the remaining four games will be what their forward line looks like without Tom De Koning and whether Harry McKay, expected to return from illness, and Charlie Curnow are enough to fill the void.
Greater Western Sydney
The verdict: The Giants look like the real deal, but we are going to learn a lot about them in the run home, taking on three top eight sides. How they deal with an away game against Brisbane and Fremantle at home will give a good indication of where they are at before a final round clash with the Western Bulldogs that could have a serious impact on the composition of the finals.
Like Fremantle their love of the handball means they can score quickly but they wouldn’t want to switch off in the last quarter like they did against Melbourne come September.
Geelong
The verdict: You can just never count the Cats out but working out exactly where they are at is like trying to nail jelly to a wall. They were impressive on the weekend, with winners and goalkickers right across the ground. Tom Stewart was enormous, Ollie Dempsey showed yet again how well Geelong nurture their kids and Tyson Stengle can kick goals out of thin air.
But that was against a team sitting second-last on the ladder. The week before against the Bulldogs they didn’t look like a team that would trouble a top four side come finals. Fourth spot isn’t out of the question with their run-home, but the Fremantle clash will be our best hint at their finals form guide.
Port Adelaide
The verdict: They needed two wins in the last five games to secure a finals berth and after making Carlton look slow on Friday you could nearly pencil in wins against Adelaide and Melbourne on the run home.
It’s not out of the question that they could finish top four but Port have proven hard to predict this season and may be left ruing their failure to seize opportunities earlier in the year.
Western Bulldogs
The verdict: The Bulldogs are building a whiff of 2016 and 2021 about them with a fully fit outfit and, as coach Luke Beveridge pointed out, an evenness in their performance across the ground that would be the envy of some rivals.
Rory Lobb’s move to defence has transformed him and the team’s success has followed. They’ve already beaten Geelong, Carlton and Sydney and could easily win three of their final four to give the Giants a shake. Who would have thought all eyes would be on Ballarat in round 24?
Hawthorn
The verdict: Hawthorn are the competition’s disruptors, throwing on its head everything we thought a winning team and culture needed to look like. They are brash, bold, have trademarked the post-game selfie and are developing the stars of the future.
If they don’t manage to slip into finals this season you can mark them down as a contender for next year already. They have been the number one defensive team of the last eight weeks while their scores from turnovers increased at the same time. At this point it’s a push to see them sneaking into the final eight but you get the feeling proving people wrong is what they like to do.
Essendon
The verdict: We can just about call time on the Bombers, with a horror run home that includes games against three top four sides. Fremantle might officially seal their fate on Sunday. They’d certainly have to lift a long way from the third-rate effort they put in against St Kilda.
It’s hard to imagine this is the same team that was sitting pretty at second on the ladder after 11 rounds. Unfortunately for Essendon fans it a case of history repeating – they were 8-5 last year and fell in a hole as well. It’s grim.
Melbourne
The verdict: Much like the Bombers and Collingwood, mathematically speaking the Dees are still in the race but it’s really hard to see them making the September action. Losing Petracca was a significant blow and watching Max Gawn trying to haul his team over the line while on one leg against GWS was the nail in the coffin.
You just can’t see them beating the rampaging Western Bulldogs which would put an end to any finals hopes. They haven’t won a final since the 2021 grand final.
Collingwood
The verdict: The reigning premiers are more likely to make a nuisance of themselves to sides currently sitting in the top eight than actually squeeze in there themselves. Snapping a four-game losing streak against Richmond does not a season make. They’ve been savaged by injury, but they started the year slowly and never seemed to fully recover their stride.
Out of contention
Gold Coast (36 points), St Kilda (32 points), Adelaide (30 points), West Coast (12 points), North Melbourne (eight points), Richmond (eight points).
How the ladder has changed this season
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