By Vince Rugari
Sydney’s slim finals hopes appeared to be gone with four minutes remaining in Sunday’s clash with St Kilda. That was until Brodie Grundy tapped a ball-up down the throat of Errol Gulden, who had sprinted clear of his marker and snapped a goal from 40 metres out to put them in front.
It was a miracle play – and for the Swans to have any chance of sneaking into the top eight, they need a few more of those. Quite a few, actually.
Errol Gulden celebrates a goal on Sunday against St Kilda.Credit: Getty Images
The Swans sit 10th on the ladder with an 8-9 win-loss record, adrift of the finals by 12 points (or three wins) and burdened by a hefty percentage deficit. They’ve got six games to go: North Melbourne at the SCG on Saturday afternoon, then GWS Giants (away), Essendon (home), Brisbane Lions (away), Geelong (home) and West Coast (away).
The good news is they’re all winnable. Yes, even the round 22 trip to the Gabba to face the reigning premiers and the home clash with the Cats the following week.
Though they are wrecked by injury and down on confidence, there are flashes of brilliance from the Swans that serve as reminders that, not long ago, they were considered one of the AFL’s most fearsome teams. It’s still in them, somewhere, buried under a pile of hurt. And statistically, they have one of the easiest runs home.
Swans players celebrate the final siren against St Kilda.Credit: Getty Images
So they’re still a chance … in the Dumb & Dumber sense, sure, but it’s something to hold on to.
The bad news is that even if they were perfect for the rest of the season, and managed to string together a six-game winning streak to round out the home-and-away campaign – a fair ask considering that this year they haven’t put more than two consecutive wins together – it still mightn’t be enough.
Of the teams they could hope to leapfrog, they face only one of them, the Giants, in a bona fide eight-pointer in next weekend’s derby at Engie Stadium. Assuming the Swans take care of business against lowly North Melbourne first, that game could not only put the wind in their own sails but also leave a fair dent in GWS’ ambitions.
What they really need is for the teams above them to start stinking it up.
Not only is Sydney’s destiny out of their own hands, it’s in the hands of their direct rivals. And there’s only a handful of matches left in the fixture in which they will take premiership points off one another.
If we accept the unofficial cut-off point for finals this season is 14 wins, it’s difficult to imagine the Gold Coast Suns, Hawthorn, Giants, Fremantle (all 11-6) or Western Bulldogs (10-7) not getting there.
The Suns face bottom-half teams Richmond, Carlton, Port Adelaide and Essendon in the final weeks of the season. The Hawks have the chance to beat up on Port, Carlton and Melbourne. The Giants have a slightly tougher run, but there’s a path to 14 wins through the Bombers, Sydney, North and St Kilda – and, like usual, they seem to be peaking at the perfect time. As for Fremantle and the Bulldogs, it may all come down to the round 24 showdown between those very sides, assuming they can both win their winnable games en route.
Swans fans have had it good for a long time. They’ve only missed finals three times since 2003. They’re not used to having September free – and, in truth, falling short wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. It would allow their players to have a longer off-season and give those nursing injuries more time to heal and refresh so that, come summer, they’re ready to go again for Dean Cox’s second year as coach. Maybe it’ll be remembered as the recession they had to have.
But for a club accustomed to excellence, and for a team that has competed in two of the last three grand finals, anything except a top-eight finish would be considered a failure.
The rest of us can fiddle around with ladder predictors, theories and flow charts. Meanwhile, all the Swans can do is bunker down, get to work and pray that everyone else capitulates.
“With these ones, you can’t really overthink it,” said forward Will Hayward.
“And I know you guys hate hearing it, but you have to take it week by week.
“We play every game like we need a win, which we do. We’re not blind by that. It’s all on the line, and that’s how we’re going to play our footy.”