By Peter Ryan, Madeleine Heffernan and Daniella White
League insiders believe the strong support for the Liberals in the Tasmanian election on Saturday removes any notion the new AFL team and controversial stadium are unpopular with the majority of voters.
But analysts say the election result is hardly an endorsement of the AFL’s position that the cash-strapped state must build a $1 billion stadium in Hobart to join the national competition.
Supporters of the Devils and the new stadium on Saturday.Credit: Peter Mathew
Despite the swing in the Liberal Party’s favour, a minority government remains the most likely result, with the Liberals needing to rely on crossbenchers to form government. It means the passage of legislation to allow work to begin on the Macquarie Point Stadium – a condition of entry for the AFL’s 19th team – remains uncertain.
On Sunday, the Liberals were on track for 14 seats, while Labor was set for 10 and the Greens five, although counting will continue this week.
Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff has been a fierce backer of the stadium. He said he intended to form a government in the new parliament, although observers said it may take two weeks of negotiation and wrangling before the government is formed.
But Labor leader Dean Winter, who called the no-confidence motion that forced the election, said on Sunday his party was talking to the crossbench about forming a government that would last a full term.
“It’s clear that Jeremy Rockliff, having won the most seats, has got the first crack at forming a government here, but it’s also clear that it’s going to be difficult for him to get to the 18 seats that he needs,” Winter said. He reiterated that Labor would not do deals with the Greens to secure government.
Whoever forms minority government, the election result does not prove that Tasmanians support the stadium, said local psephologist Dr Kevin Bonham. The Labor Party also supported the proposed stadium, despite concerns about its price tag.
If the enabling legislation designed to accelerate the stadium approval is reintroduced in August, the government would need the support of at least two of the seven upper house independents to pass the legislation.
Bonham said the stadium was likely to pass the lower house but could face challenges in the upper house, where the major parties don’t have a majority. “There are a number of independents that are pro-stadium in principle but at least want to dot the i’s and cross the t’s,” he said.
Tasmanian federal MP Andrew Wilkie said Canberra had no appetite for bailing out the state, which has fewer than 600,000 residents and is projected to have $11 billion of debt by 2029.
“And the fact that, on top of all this, we’re looking to spend about $2 billion on a third AFL stadium,” Wilkie told ABC Radio.
Tasmania-based economist Saul Eslake said Tasmanians want a team in the AFL, but it was hard to know whether residents supported a new stadium as the price for having a team.
Eslake said both major parties had acquiesced to the AFL’s demands, including bearing “all the risks of cost overrun and delay” of the proposed stadium.
The two parties that support the stadium received 69.1 per cent of the first-preference votes as of Sunday afternoon, but the allocation of seats under the Hare-Clark system will not be known until preferences are sorted and postal votes counted. Final results are expected to be known by Saturday, August 2, the Tasmanian Election Commission said.
However, league sources, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the election gave supporters of the stadium a mandate to continue the process of building the infrastructure necessary for a new team to play in the AFL in 2028.
Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff.Credit: AAP
The AFL has maintained its “no stadium, no team” position throughout.
The uncertainty that still surrounds the process meant the Devils’ hierarchy was cautious in a public statement released on Sunday. But the statement made clear they were still optimistic that the initial timeline would be met.
“Tasmania Football Club stands ready to work with the incoming Tasmanian government and elected members once the election outcomes are resolved,” the statement said.
“We are focused on entering the AFL and the AFLW by 2028, [and] in order to do that, we have several timeframes that must be met. We are very eager to work with the government to realise these.
“In the meantime, we will stay focused on building our club, we have no time to lose.
“We are very thankful for the ongoing support and encouragement of our club, we cannot wait to bring these teams to reality – together.”
While the Greens supported the team’s entry, the party opposed the stadium and the requirement for entry into the AFL. The independents, whose support will be necessary to form government, have varying views.
The stadium is still undergoing a project of state significance assessment through the Tasmanian Planning Commission.
Saturday’s snap poll, the second in less 16 months, was called after Rockliff lost a no-confidence-motion brought on by Labor, which criticised his budget management and the bungled roll-out of Spirit of Tasmania ferries. Rockliff chose to call an election instead of resigning.
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