The seats to watch in the 2025 WA election

Voters are set to deliver the worst ever swing away from the WA Labor Party at Saturday’s state election, but the overall result will probably still be the second or third best in the party’s history.

Two opinion polls published on Friday suggest the Liberals will claw back 12.2 to 13 per cent of the two-party vote statewide, which would net them the return of 11 seats in the lower house.

WA Premier Roger Cook and Liberal leader Libby Mettam.Credit: WAtoday

Premier Roger Cook has consistently said he expects to lose seats at this election, and Labor insiders say they are bracing for a loss of 12 to 18 seats.

Labor will pop the bubbly if it’s closer to 12, while the Liberals and Nationals will reach for the top shelf if they get close to 18 seats.

Those polls will not reflect a uniform swing across individual seats on the night, of course, and when you drill into it, plenty of interesting battles will take place.

The ones to watch:

Churchlands

Basil Zempilas injected a little fire into this campaign, something that has been missing from the Liberals for years, but with the fire he has picked up plenty of controversy.

He is taking on Labor’s Christine Tonkin, who has been a quiet presence in Labor’s enormous backbench.

Tonkin will lose her job come Saturday night, but watch the final margin compared with his other western suburbs Liberal candidates to see how Zempilas’ loud personality has resonated with the electorate.

Nedlands and Carine

These affluent electorates will also return to Liberal hands after their shock losses in 2021. Labor’s Nedlands MP Katrina Stratton has hit the ejector button and is running for the party in the upper house, while Carine MP Paul Lilburne has also been pretty muted these past four years.

Liberal candidate in Nedlands Jonathan Huston and Carine candidate Liam Staltari are considered future leaders in the new state Liberal Party.

Scarborough

After Zempilas’ campaign, Scarborough has perhaps drawn the most public interest of this election. Labor would love nothing more than to keep this formerly blue ribbon seat with their surfy tradie candidate Stuart Aubrey. Liberal contender Damien Kelly has plenty of support in the electorate. He also surfs.

Scarborough is up for grabs. Credit:

South Perth

Of all the formerly blue ribbon seats the Liberals hope to get back, South Perth is hardest to read. Geoff Baker has also been a quiet presence on the Labor backbench, but insiders consider him a chance to defend the seat from Liberal and South Perth deputy mayor Bronwyn Waugh.

Riverton

Labor candidate Jagadish Krishnan, aka Dr Jags, has been a fairly popular member in the seat of former Liberal treasurer Mike Nahan, but a bit of bad press recently might eat into his 11 per cent margin.

Fremantle

Water Minister Simone McGurk faces a serious challenge from the Greens and well-resourced independent Kate Hullett, who have been campaigning hard on Labor’s inaction on climate change. Fremantle has gone Green before.

An independent has a big chance in Fremantle.Credit: Getty Images

Regional seats

Labor’s vote will be torched in the regions thanks to its gun laws and federal Labor’s live export ban. Expect to see Warren-Blackwood fall quickly, followed by Geraldton and potentially Kalgoorlie and Albany, despite the hundreds of millions of dollars the party has promised in these electorates.

Current opposition leader and Nationals MP Shane Love is also in a fight for the new seat of Mid-West, where he is taking on his former Nationals colleague Mem Beard after she defected to the Liberals.

Love would love to win that seat.

Start the day with a summary of the day’s most important and interesting stories, analysis and insights. Sign up for our Morning Edition newsletter.