Allan seeks to charm caucus as concerns mount over state Labor poll slump

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Labor politicians are openly debating Jacinta Allan’s cratering popularity and what the federal election result in Victorian seats will mean for her future, as the premier attempts to keep her caucus on side.

Allan on Wednesday said she wasn’t focused on polls, after the Resolve Political Monitor for The Age, found state Labor’s primary vote was at 24 per cent and her personal likeability had collapsed to minus 32 per cent.

Federal MPs are grappling with how to campaign in a state vital to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s fortunes but where the branch is on the nose. It’s also proven an easy attack point for the federal Liberals with Opposition Leader Peter Dutton saying on Wednesday the wheels are falling off in Victoria.

Albanese was on the campaign trail in Melbourne on Wednesday minus Allan, despite appearing alongside other state premiers as he’s toured the country. Both Labor leaders held separate press conferences at the same time.

Allan did not say whether she expected to join Albanese later in the campaign but did say she would be advocating against Dutton.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese with Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan at a school in January.Credit: Wayne Taylor

The premier’s popularity has increasingly become a concern for MPs and party figures, seven of whom spoke anonymously to avoid reprisal. There is no imminent move against her and nor is that a certainty.

But Allan, who on Wednesday said she wanted to keep her attention on the cost of living, has also been attempting to charm her caucus following internal ructions over her popularity, community crime concerns and a 16 per cent swing against the party in the Werribee byelection.

MPs said the federal election results in Victoria were a key test, warning the outcome in Labor’s prized outer suburban seats, such as Bruce, could trigger trouble for Allan.

Bruce has historical significance to Allan’s Socialist Left faction and, with a margin above 6 per cent, would signify serious trouble for Labor in Victoria if the party lost the seat.

State backbenchers in marginal seats have been particularly skittish, fearing a big swing against Labor in November 2026 could cost them their seats in parliament.

Sources from both sides of the party acknowledged there was increasing anxiety about the state government’s fortunes; however, they agreed that the premier’s leadership was not doomed and Allan’s popularity could improve after a poor start to 2025.

Another MP argued the premier’s net likeability was low because she was still unknown in the electorate and shouldering voter frustration, rather than a distinct problem with her public persona.

Another Labor source said internal unrest after the Werribee byelection had died down as MPs reported positive responses to the state’s bail law changes in their community.

Anthony Albanese dismissed questions about Jacinta Allan’s absence from his campaign stops in Melbourne.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

In an effort to capitalise on Allan’s perceived unpopularity, the federal Liberals have looked to tie Albanese to Allan in key federal seats such as Menzies.

Flyers dropped in letterboxes in the Liberal-held seat of Menzies depict both leaders under the title “double trouble for Victorians”, reminding voters of Victoria’s debt profile and crime rates.

Three Labor sources said it was correct to say that the federal Labor campaign was trying to avoid being tied too closely their state colleagues while their popularity had hit a low point.

A Liberal leaflet attempting to tie Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to Premier Jacinta Allan.

Both Albanese and Allan deflected questions about why the two had not appeared together and whether they would front the camera during the campaign.

Albanese bluntly pointed out she had to attend parliament this week.

Credit: Matt Golding

“Parliament is sitting. It’s this little thing called parliament,” he said.

Pressed on the point, he denied their separate conferences could be viewed as evidence he lacked confidence in her government.

“The answer is no,” Albanese said.

“I work closely with all state and territory governments and have a good relationship with every premier and chief minister, including Jacinta Allan.”

Both Albanese and Allan responded by accusing Dutton of seeking cuts, a key attack message coming from Labor’s campaign office.

State Opposition Leader Brad Battin also did not join Dutton on either Tuesday or Wednesday press conferences which the federal leader held in Melbourne. Battin said he was busy in parliament and his focus was Victoria.

Dutton said the poll showed the Victorian government was in “real trouble” and accused the state government of being in disarray following the revelation that acting Victoria Police Chief Commissioner Rick Nugent would not apply for the role full-time.

Peter Dutton has lashed Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan’s handling of crime in the state.Credit: James Brickwood

“The wheels are falling off,” Dutton told ABC Melbourne radio.

“Victorians feel it. They can sense that with this latest change, that a lot of fundamental mistakes being made and problems at the core of the government.”

The latest Resolve survey of more than 1000 people found Allan’s personal standing with voters has continued to tank. In October 2023, 38 per cent of voters preferred her as premier when she took the job from Daniel Andrews, but that figure has slumped to 23 per cent, her lowest recorded level of support.

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